Bitcoin - Part 2

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Consistent logarithmic growth? Or lying with statistics?

Crypto Hedge Fund Pantera Capital Has a Lifetime Return of 10,000 Percent
Commenting on bitcoin’s bull and bear cycles over Pantera’s five years of existence, Morehead noted that — contrary to the cryptocurrency’s linear price movements — BTC has experienced very consistent logarithmic growth since 2010.

Unlike linear charts, which measure an asset’s value in pure dollar terms, with equal distance between price levels, logarithmic charts plot data such that there is equal distance between equivalent percentage changes.

By this metric, bitcoin is far less volatile than its reputation, and its long-term trend line, Morehead said, suggests that the bitcoin price will end 2018 trading near $21,000 — a new all-time high — and break out to $67,500 in 2019.
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Look at the graph below, which uses a wide range logarithmic scale to severely compress the visual effect of price variations. Ignoring the speculative extrapolation into the future, can you see 'very consistent' logarithmic growth and 'far less' volatility? Me neither. But who ya gonna believe - a high-flying hedge fund manager, or your lying eyes?
 

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Samson said:
Only got to 8506 from 7473 when posted.
But that is a solid leg up for the short squeeze.
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But you were predicting exactly opposite movement, so...

Looking at the long-term price we can see that despite all the 'random' one-off events that supposedly affect the price it is still bouncing with consistent regularity. Yesterday it looked like the latest bounce had reached its peak, and today's drop seems to confirm it.

Hopefully you bought when it bottomed out. If so, Sell Bitcoin now!
 

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More Lying with Statistics?

BITCOIN HAS A HUGE POTENTIAL TO GROW
a review from surveyors Gallup and appointed by banking monster Wells Fargo has uncovered [that]... only 2% of financial specialists say they as of now possess bitcoin, and under 1% plan to get it sooner rather than later. While most financial specialists say they have no enthusiasm for consistently purchasing bitcoin, around one of every four (26%) say they are fascinated by it, however, won’t be buying it anytime soon.
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So is it over for Bitcoin? No! You see, the tiny market penetration and lack of enthusiasm just means that it has a huge 'potential' to grow!

And that's not all. Take a look at this graph of trading volume. You might think it shows a declining trend, but you would be wrong. The long term trend since Bitcoin's inception is upwards. Well below the peak and mostly declining since then, but still upwards overall. In fact since trading volume started at zero, even it drops to less than $1 a year it will always be upwards!

So no matter what happens to Bitcoin it will always shine - provided you interpret the statistics 'correctly'. :rolleyes:
 

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Don't you get tired of making up these stories?

The price will go up tomorrow unless it falls in which case it will go down. You have absolutely no idea which way the price will go - either in the short term or the long term.
 
Samson said:
Only got to 8506 from 7473 when posted.
But that is a solid leg up for the short squeeze.
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Or maybe you have no idea where bitcoin (or any other instrument) is going... and start muttering about a "short squeeze" whenever it's behavior verifies that.
 
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Dr.Sid said:
Well personally I agree with Roger on both short term and long term trends. But then I'm usually wrong about these things ..
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You should apply the George Costanza contrarian method to your trading. And split the profits with me.
 
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trustbutverify said:
Or maybe you have no idea where bitcoin (or any other instrument) is going... and start muttering about a "short squeeze" whenever it's behavior verifies that.
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Well except the muttering was followed by a short squeeze of , er 12 percent.
 
I've been following quite a lot of news sources on Bitcoin, and some of the most trusted "neutral" observers seem to think that the current bounce was mostly instigated by Tethers, and some possible manipulation from a few exchanges.

However, it is undeniable that there was some increase in volume on the climb to $8.5k. This appears to have been caused by several online rumours that the SEC was about to approve the Winklevoss ETF. If you read Bitcoiner blogs and forums, they have been obsessed with an ETF approval as it would herald the much anticipated institutional money inflow, which is a needed precursor to their moon shot.

However, the SEC refused the ETF, citing among other things that market manipulation could exist. This led to the current mini-crash of 1k (price at GDAX is currently $7.5k).

There are some other bearish indicators in the short term. Volume continues to be very low, and commercial adoption is almost non-existent. There have been a couple of bad reports on blockchain adoption, with many corporate experiments being discontinued or shot down. Most importantly, popular interest continues to drop, so it is possible that we could be back to 6k territory if things stay the same.

I'm sure there will be a few more bounces, particularly as other ETF decisions are expected in the next few months, but I would agree with a general downward trajectory, at least in the next months. The problem is that Bitcoin is bloody awful as a currency.
 
Interesting price moves in the last couple of days, price was clearly going south, it hit $7.3k yesterday, and then a bit announcement about NYSE interest managed to halt the slide, but no sign of FOMO money jumping in. BTC Reddit was expecting a huge bounce, but it is indication that the public aren't interested.
 
LlamaDrama said:
Interesting price moves in the last couple of days, price was clearly going south, it hit $7.3k yesterday, and then a bit announcement about NYSE interest managed to halt the slide, but no sign of FOMO money jumping in. BTC Reddit was expecting a huge bounce, but it is indication that the public aren't interested.
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I think psion is winning.
We have an industry that capitalises at 150 billion, however you slice or dice it, and there is creeping uptake institutionally, globex and so on.
It is obscene, irrational and ugly.
 
Samson said:
I think psion is winning.
We have an industry that capitalises at 150 billion, however you slice or dice it, and there is creeping uptake institutionally, globex and so on.
It is obscene, irrational and ugly.
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A few announcements here and there are made evidently for PR purposes, but almost nothing ever becomes concrete. I imagine NYSE saying in 6 months "we looked at it and we're not interested".

Interestingly, the announcement hasn't stopped the current slide, we're back under $7k ($6.9k at the time of writing).

Another unregulated exchange has gone under, and some of the Bitconnect people have now been sub-subpoenaed and may face prosecution soon. I think we may hit $6.5k again.

I'm sure there will be other bounces though, the market is so unstable it's laughable, it takes nothing to move the price up or down a few hundred dollars.
 
Bitcoin is of no interest except entertainment to me. It was almost $20K last time I thought about it and now I see down to $7K.

I don't do one-stock or one-commoddity investing, and bitcoin is useless as money to me. It is interesting how the fad in crypto-currency had such a meteoric history.

Seems to me it had its genesis in the underground trade economy. Still today, I understand that you can make untraceable purchases with bitcoin, no doubt in my mind the NSA is running the very things supposedly outside the purview of government.
 
Bitcoin Posts Solid Gains to Break Above $7,000


is trading around $7,118 at press time, up around 2.5 percent on the day. After several faltering attempts to break past the $7,000 threshold yesterday, the leading cryptocurrency has today seen a sustained uptick as of very early trading hours. Today’s growth has not yet pushed the coin’s weekly price change back into the green, however, which still remains at around an 8 percent loss. On the month, Bitcoin is now up almost 9 percent.


(Headline and article posted 6 hours ago)



https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitc...to-break-above-7-000-while-altcoins-see-green


Now, a few hours later, it is reading at around $6,600.


I can not see it ever replacing fiat currency with the sort of swings that happen on a daily, even hourly basis. From 10:00AM this morning (my time) it quickly dropped over $10 per minute and reached a low of $6,551.


Disclaimer: I have no interest in Bitcoin other than as an interested onlooker who has been following the price trends for a number of months now.


Norm
 
fromdownunder said:
I can not see it ever replacing fiat currency with the sort of swings that happen on a daily, even hourly basis.
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Welcome to the bitcoin forum.

As you go through the posts in this thread, you will find two other major impediments to using bitcoin as a currency:
  • The volume of transactions is limited: If too many people try to do transactions with bitcoin then the transaction fees rise rapidly.
  • Conversion between bitcoin and fiat is risky (and can be difficult): In this wild wild west environment, it can be difficult to find a bitcoin exchange you can trust.
These problems have been under heavy discussion for many years.

BTW don't make the same mistake that many others have made (and some still do) of trying to predict a price of bitcoin in the future. I suspect that those who predict $100K by the end of the year will end up looking as foolish as those who predice $0 by the end of the year (and I may end up looking foolish just for saying this ;) ).
 
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