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Australian Politics: The Albanese Times

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Also, the Libs were counting on a backlash against Andrews in Victoria. What a ******* stupid strategy.
 
It’s the vibe of the thing. This has been a big reset. Be interesting to see if our media fight back with this or lean into it. If only they would sack the Sky After Dark team for being irelevant harrumphing troglodytes. This is a day we can dream.
 
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Norman Alexander said:
If he is wise, and he seems to be, he will certainly realise the slippage of Labor support to Green and teal issues, and will embrace these issues to be dealt with by the Labor government. That will almost certainly give him an unassailable practical parliamentary majority, plus keep the "protesters" on Labor's side for future reference. It also consigns the Dutton/Hanson/Katter critters to become a small enclave of harrumphing troglodytes.
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Yes, agree with this as well.

What do you think of a Labor/Green coalition? It will also likely give Labor a Senate majority as well.
 
Just listened to Simon Birmingham. He’s a senator so cannot be Liberal leader, but they could do far worse.
 
How long before a winning Victorian liberal member (how many are left?) decides to retire due to family or personal reasons and Josh parachutes in? I doubt it would work any way.
 
lionking said:
Just listened to Simon Birmingham. He’s a senator so cannot be Liberal leader, but they could do far worse.
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They could have had Julie Bishop, who would have been an excellent conservative leader. But they chose Scomo instead. So it doesn't matter if Birmingham is suitable or not. After making The Mad Monk leader, then dumping him for Mediocre Malcolm, then "maneuvering" Scomo in instead of Bishop, the Libs are almost certain to continue that trend and select the worst possible choice available. "Potato Head" Dutton is that choice.
 
lionking said:
It would alienate some rusted on ALP supporters, but it would be a very smart move.
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Some of the Labor limpets voted Independent this time around as a protest. Just ask Christine "Parachutes" Kenneally. So they are not as rusted on as the Labor machine might think. The Libs were not the only ones to get a kick in the pants, even if it was much smaller.
 
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novaphile said:
In other news Rex Patrick and Nick Xenophon have managed to halve each other's Senate votes in South Australia, keeping them both out.

Hooray!

The One Notion party looks likely to win a South Australian Senate seat, so not all good news...
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Thing is, I'd prefer Xenophon or Patrick as SA Senators than a PHON candidate.

I don't really understand the rise of PHON in SA. They picked up a seat in the LC as well last election.

lionking said:
One disappointing outcome is Kristina Kennelly didn’t get up. She has talent and will come back.
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Probably. But they have to find a better seat to parachute her in to.

And I think the Teals and possibly the Greens will drop back next election if Albo turns out to be a decent leader. The Greens and independents benefitted from a huge protest/anti Scomo vote.
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Yes. But I think some of that will also depend on what the Liberals do as they reorganise. If they decide to more further right then the teals will probably keep winning their seats as the Liberals keep moving further and further away from the beliefs of those electorate.

Norman Alexander said:
If he is wise, and he seems to be, he will certainly realise the slippage of Labor support to Green and teal issues, and will embrace these issues to be dealt with by the Labor government. That will almost certainly give him an unassailable practical parliamentary majority, plus keep the "protesters" on Labor's side for future reference. It also consigns the Dutton/Hanson/Katter critters to become a small enclave of harrumphing troglodytes.
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It's hard to say. Labor seems to be in alignment with the Greens and Teals in a lot of the major issues that were campaigned on, so in those cases it should work out in that sense. One of the issues is that if Labor does anything publicly with the Greens you're going to get a bunch of "coalitions are bad, it'll turn us into an unstable country like Italy" from a media that spends their time supporting a coalition.

Sideroxylon said:
It’s the vibe of the thing. This has been a big reset. Be interesting to see if our media fight back with this or lean into it. If only they would sack the Sky After Dark team for being irelevant harrumphing troglodytes. This is a day we can dream.
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Considering the amount of cope Sales had last night, they're probably going to keep up the anti-Labor rhetoric. I wonder how long until all the Liberal's debt magically becomes Labor's.
 
The only remaining LNP members are Nationals and very right Liberals. I simply can’t see them capturing the middle for a generation. A Labor/Green coalition would be a juggernaut that would be very hard to beat.
 
shemp said:
I don't get it. Your conservatives lost an election and they just roll over, play dead and concede? When does the attempted coup begin?
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I think the conservatives will just go back and review their share portfolios and directorships. They know Labor will not impact their ability to earn money.
 
Norman Alexander said:
Some of the Labor limpets voted Independent this time around as a protest. Just ask Christine "Parachutes" Kenneally. So they are not as rusted on as the Labor machine might think. The Libs were not the only ones to get a kick in the pants, even if it was much smaller.
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Yes they did and some Labor voters went with Greens. I know people who did these things.
 
Right now the Liberal MP in Sturt is leading by only 63 votes. This was a safe Liberal seat going into the election.

And a similar thing in Menzies where the Liberal candidate is only ahead by 45 votes.

There have been some massive swings towards the Labor in safe Liberal seats this election.
 
Current state of play

Political pundits have already given Labor a majority win. However, they need 76 seats for a majority. ATM the state if play is Labor: 71 seats, LNP 51, Greens 3, Others 12 with 14 seats undecided. The LNP had a big swing away from them this election but the votes didn't go to Labor - except in WA which was enough for Labor to claim victory.

In the Senate, the current state of play is LNP 30 seats, Labor 25 seats, Greens 12 seats, Lambie 2 seats and ON 1 seat with 6 seats undecided. Labor needs to control 40 Senate seats to pass legislation which seems unlikely even with Greens support.

So far, Albanese has ruled out forming a coalition so it remains to be seen how effective he will be.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results?filter=all&sort=az&state=all
 
Sideroxylon said:
What is the distinction you are making here? When we go to the polls there is a sense in which we are choosing our prime minister. :)
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Exactly. People, young people in particular, say they voted for Morrison or Albanese. Voting for a local member nobody knows virtually doesn’t happen.
 
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