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Attempted Military Coup in China?

I seem to remember a CNN article from a week ago or so, that reported on the claims, and wrote that the evidence for it just isn't there. It said images showed either past events, parades, or just normal redeployment of military vehicles and such. I can't find it right now though.
Outside of reports of gunfire from inside Zhongnanhai (which seems to have some credible people claiming to have heard them), pretty much everything else is as you said...old footage, or normal traffic. In fact, by far the majority of the 'news' seems to be coming from people who aren't in Beijing...both foreign and Chinese friends that I have there report that everything is normal, there are none of the signs one would expect to see if there was a major crisis.

Of course, the conspiracy folks can then claim that the fact they're keeping everything normal is proof that something is up ;)
 
Outside of reports of gunfire from inside Zhongnanhai (which seems to have some credible people claiming to have heard them), pretty much everything else is as you said...old footage, or normal traffic. In fact, by far the majority of the 'news' seems to be coming from people who aren't in Beijing...both foreign and Chinese friends that I have there report that everything is normal, there are none of the signs one would expect to see if there was a major crisis.

Of course, the conspiracy folks can then claim that the fact they're keeping everything normal is proof that something is up ;)

Well, something did happen. My guess is that the usual happened - a commotion of sorts in the compound (maybe even something completely apolitical, like a guard going postal), and the rumors started flying. Someone mentioned about a military vechile in the vicinity - which could even be coincidential - and the next person reported a military deployment, which was quickly changed into a coup attempt by the third person in line ... etc. This was fueled by a general distrust of information pushed through by the Party, and their claims nothing significant happened.

McHrozni
 
Well, something did happen. My guess is that the usual happened - a commotion of sorts in the compound (maybe even something completely apolitical, like a guard going postal), and the rumors started flying. Someone mentioned about a military vechile in the vicinity - which could even be coincidential - and the next person reported a military deployment, which was quickly changed into a coup attempt by the third person in line ... etc. This was fueled by a general distrust of information pushed through by the Party, and their claims nothing significant happened.

McHrozni
In regards to what happened in Zhongnanhai, anything is going to be speculation...and yes, the gov't has done an amazing job of teaching its populace not to trust it, which feeds the problem greatly.

I'm privy to information that I can't discuss here which makes me believe that there was some sort of serious event in Zhongnanhai; and the gov't's immediate efforts to suppress all information about it lends support to my belief.

On the other hand, this is not the first time that the gov't has cracked down to prevent dissemination of information that is both false, and could cause social unrest. An example would be after the tsunami in Japan last year, some people were spreading rumors of a dangerous radioactive cloud coming to China...the gov't's response to people responsible for spreading those rumors was almost identical.

In the end, everything is speculation...hopefully, at some point in the future, we'll find out more.
 
So what are the odds that this tension results in a civil war in China?

It probably won't, but some things, to get realigned, appear to require strife. (See the former Yugoslavia, for starters, and what's going on in Iraq at the moment).

The return of the Warring States Era......
 
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I'm privy to information that I can't discuss here which makes me believe that there was some sort of serious event in Zhongnanhai; and the gov't's immediate efforts to suppress all information about it lends support to my belief.

I hope you'll be able to share that soon, then :)

On the other hand, this is not the first time that the gov't has cracked down to prevent dissemination of information that is both false, and could cause social unrest. An example would be after the tsunami in Japan last year, some people were spreading rumors of a dangerous radioactive cloud coming to China...the gov't's response to people responsible for spreading those rumors was almost identical.

Interesting. All we know from the governments' response is therefore that the event was somewhere between "insignificant" and "earth-shattering". Yay. :)

McHrozni
 
So the question I have is, do these accusations have any truth to them, or is this an old-fashioned purge?
Given the history between Bo and Heywood and what happened with Wang Lijun, it would seem to me to be very likely, although we'll probably never know the truth.
 
Yup...things happening rather fast here, but quite the sordid scandal, it appears.

The fuller story -- both confirmed items, and items that are unconfirmed, but largely considered to be true -- as best I can piece it together at present.

It starts with Neil Heywood, a British businessman working in Chongqing. He had close ties with Bo's family, including helping his son get into a prestigious school in the UK (confirmed). There are also strong indications that Mr. Heywood engaged in an affair with Bo Xilai's wife (unconfirmed), although the official gov't line at present seems to be that there were 'economic issues' (significant debts) behind their falling out.

To add to the intrigue, the company that Heywood worked for was set up by British ex-spies (unconfirmed, but claimed by several western media outlets), leading to contemplation that Heywood may have been more than 'just a businessman'.

Anyway, Heywood was found dead in his apartment, the death ruled accidental due to alcohol poisoning after drinking too much...but no autopsy was done, and the body was cremated by Chinese authorities, leading to questions about a cover-up. But lacking evidence, not much was done.

Fast-forward in time. Wang Lijun somehow acquires evidence regarding Heywood's murder, and either out of a desire to see a wrong righted (less likely) or out of a desire for self-preservation when he sees that he's fallen out with Bo Xilai (more likely), he contacted the British Consulate and made an appointment to visit them (fact). However, for some reason (possibly the authorities had discovered his plan, and were seeking to stop him?), he never showed up at the British Consulate, and instead fled to the American Consulate, where it has now been confirmed by the Chinese media that he made the claim Heywood had been murdered by Bo Xilai's wife.

Which brings us up to the present. Bo Xilai has been stripped of all powers, and is under investigation. His wife, Bogu Kailai, has been arrested, along with her orderly/bodyguard. The Chinese authorities have now ruled Heywood's death a probable murder, and are in communication with British authorities over the case.

Still no word on the gunshots in Zhongnanhai, but the Chinese media is openly reporting now on both Bo Xilai and his wife. Again, this is purely my own speculation, but I suspect that Heywood did indeed have an affair with Bo's wife, which led to them engaging in mutual business activities; then either the romance or the business turned sour, putting Bo's wife in a precarious position (and possibly that of a woman scorned).

Anyway...China's all abuzz right now, my wife has gotten at least 20 messages on her phone so far reporting various items related to this news, and it is the main topic of conversation in our office.

ETA: Wang Lijun is also in very serious trouble over this...for revealing internal political issues like this to the U.S. embassy, instead of the Beijing government, he's been branded as a traitor by the Chinese President, Hu Jintao. That, piled on top of existing criminal charges that he was already facing before this started, seems to pretty much spell the end for his career, also.

ETA 2: A fairly recent pic of Bogu Kailai
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So the "coup" was just an English bloke hitting on a beau's wife?
Nope...the 'coup', if it happened, would not have been led by either Bo Xilai or his wife. Most likely, as I speculated above, it would have been led by conservative military leaders who were opposed to Bo Xilai's demotion.

I don't think there's much doubt that there was some sort of gunfight...but who knows, it could have been some crazy nut, or some explanation other than a coup attempt. The irony would be that, if Bo and/or other conservative gov't figures were planning something, it all got undone because of his wife's indiscretions.
 

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