Wolfman
Chief Solipsistic, Autosycophant
There's been quite a bit of (largely unreported) intrigue and political shenanigans in China over the past two months. First, the Vice-Mayor of Chongqing, Wang Lijun, sought sanctuary in the U.S. Consulate on Feb. 24. He stayed there overnight, before finally leaving the embassy of his own volition, turning himself over to Chinese authorities. There's a lot of speculation that he sought political asylum, but this has not been officially confirmed by either side. Since turning himself over to Chinese authorities, he's been on "vacation-style medical treatment", according to the gov't.
Pretty much all information seems to point to his actions being motivated by a falling-out with his boss, the Mayor of Chongqing, Bo Xilai; Wang was being investigated over corruption accusations, and in return for leniency, had apparently revealed information about Bo's own corrupt activities.
Now, this is no minor thing...Bo Xilai has something of a cult figure status in China. First as Mayor of Dalian, then as Mayor of Chongqing, he's had notable and widely publicized success in cracking down on organized crime and corruption, and on significantly increasing economic conditions in those cities. He was widely touted as one of the top candidates to ascend to China's Politburo Standing Committee (a very powerful position), and possibly even as a candidate for President in another 8-10 years.
He's also the son of Bo Yibo, a famous figure in Communist propaganda, was a leading hard-liner in the Chinese hierarchy in the 80s and 90s.
But there is another side to the Bo Xilai story...he also is a Communist hard-liner (following in his father's footsteps), who promoted a return to "red culture"...essentially glorifying Mao Zedong, and calling for a return of the rabid patriotism that fueled the Cultural Revolution. This appealed to a significant segment of China's population, particularly those in rural areas (those in urban areas, particularly the most developed cities like Beijing and Shanghai, tended to regard him with dismay). He was openly critical of more recent government policies that allowed more freedom and openness, and ran Chongqing with an iron fist, suppressing media and silencing his critics whenever possible.
When Wang offered to give evidence of Bo's corruption, Bo responded by arresting a number of Wang's close friends, and reportedly threatening his family...the speculation is that Wang went to the U.S. Consulate because he feared for his life. Wang refused to turn himself over to local authorities (who were controlled by Bo), but rather insisted he'd only turn himself over to authorities from Beijing.
Of course, all media coverage of this was censored in China, and any searches for relevant terms on Google or other sites were blocked.
Now, fast-forward a little bit. March of 2012, after Wang's attempted defection, and just before the 18th Party Congress (an event held every five years to set policy and appoint leaders for the next five years). It was anticipated that Bo would be appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee, but instead it was suddenly announced that he'd been removed from his position in Chongqing, and relieved of all government powers and responsibilities.
Then, on March 21, there were reports of gunshots fired and military activity in Zhongnanhai in Beijing. Zhongnanhai is where all the top Chinese gov't leaders live, and is the effective seat of power in China. Rumors started anew about an attempted military coup. But again, the Chinese censors cracked down.
Rumors have flourished despite that effort, and on Friday, the Chinese gov't launched an even stronger crack-down, arresting several key figures who'd been reporting rumors of an attempted coup, and shutting down several key websites and social media platforms.
There's still no official news whatsoever as to what happened, and rumors are flying about wildly. I've got my own theory -- based largely on speculation -- about what happened.
My theory:
Bo Xilai was not himself planning a coup (many rumors here are that he was actually masterminding a revolution). But being a hardliner who was set to get significant power, he was being courted by military elements within the Chinese gov't who want to return to a more hard-line style of government, like that of 30 or 40 years ago. China's leadership is right now in a major power struggle between the hardliner conservatives, and the more moderate reformers. The former are smaller in number, but are also made up largely of veterans who were instrumental in making China powerful; the latter are larger in number, but seen as 'newcomers' who weren't involved in the struggle to make China great (WW II, the Cultural Revolution, etc.).
So, some of these people court Bo Xilai, seeking to establish alliances with him, and perhaps even plot an eventual takeover of the Party once Bo is in power. But it's a long-term plan, without any intent of immediate implementation (these people have proven themselves very much to be long-term and very cautious planners).
Wang Libo is aware of this, and when he comes under investigation, threatens to reveal Bo's connections and plans...accusations which could be considered treasonous. Bo responds by arresting those connected to Wang, and trying to apprehend Wang and his family; Wang, afraid that local authorities won't/can't protect him, seeks refuge at the U.S. Consulate.
Wang eventually surrenders himself to Beijing authorities, who then investigate his accusations, and find enough evidence to concern them...they then remove Bo from power, intending a more thorough investigation of Bo, and anyone connected with him.
Someone in the military leadership who'd been plotting with Bo realizes that his own role could be revealed, and in desperation, attempts an ill-fated military coup. But he lacks the time or resources to put anything effective together, and is stopped after a brief fight.
This is purely speculation...but it fits with the relatively few confirmed facts that are available to us right now. Hopefully, more news will be released in future, once the gov't feels it has everything under control, and then we can see how close my guesses are to reality.
But regardless...tons of drama in China right now. Doesn't seem that the Western media's covering it very much, but do keep an eye out for news about this...whatever happened, there's definitely more than has been reported thus far.
Pretty much all information seems to point to his actions being motivated by a falling-out with his boss, the Mayor of Chongqing, Bo Xilai; Wang was being investigated over corruption accusations, and in return for leniency, had apparently revealed information about Bo's own corrupt activities.
Now, this is no minor thing...Bo Xilai has something of a cult figure status in China. First as Mayor of Dalian, then as Mayor of Chongqing, he's had notable and widely publicized success in cracking down on organized crime and corruption, and on significantly increasing economic conditions in those cities. He was widely touted as one of the top candidates to ascend to China's Politburo Standing Committee (a very powerful position), and possibly even as a candidate for President in another 8-10 years.
He's also the son of Bo Yibo, a famous figure in Communist propaganda, was a leading hard-liner in the Chinese hierarchy in the 80s and 90s.
But there is another side to the Bo Xilai story...he also is a Communist hard-liner (following in his father's footsteps), who promoted a return to "red culture"...essentially glorifying Mao Zedong, and calling for a return of the rabid patriotism that fueled the Cultural Revolution. This appealed to a significant segment of China's population, particularly those in rural areas (those in urban areas, particularly the most developed cities like Beijing and Shanghai, tended to regard him with dismay). He was openly critical of more recent government policies that allowed more freedom and openness, and ran Chongqing with an iron fist, suppressing media and silencing his critics whenever possible.
When Wang offered to give evidence of Bo's corruption, Bo responded by arresting a number of Wang's close friends, and reportedly threatening his family...the speculation is that Wang went to the U.S. Consulate because he feared for his life. Wang refused to turn himself over to local authorities (who were controlled by Bo), but rather insisted he'd only turn himself over to authorities from Beijing.
Of course, all media coverage of this was censored in China, and any searches for relevant terms on Google or other sites were blocked.
Now, fast-forward a little bit. March of 2012, after Wang's attempted defection, and just before the 18th Party Congress (an event held every five years to set policy and appoint leaders for the next five years). It was anticipated that Bo would be appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee, but instead it was suddenly announced that he'd been removed from his position in Chongqing, and relieved of all government powers and responsibilities.
Then, on March 21, there were reports of gunshots fired and military activity in Zhongnanhai in Beijing. Zhongnanhai is where all the top Chinese gov't leaders live, and is the effective seat of power in China. Rumors started anew about an attempted military coup. But again, the Chinese censors cracked down.
Rumors have flourished despite that effort, and on Friday, the Chinese gov't launched an even stronger crack-down, arresting several key figures who'd been reporting rumors of an attempted coup, and shutting down several key websites and social media platforms.
There's still no official news whatsoever as to what happened, and rumors are flying about wildly. I've got my own theory -- based largely on speculation -- about what happened.
My theory:
Bo Xilai was not himself planning a coup (many rumors here are that he was actually masterminding a revolution). But being a hardliner who was set to get significant power, he was being courted by military elements within the Chinese gov't who want to return to a more hard-line style of government, like that of 30 or 40 years ago. China's leadership is right now in a major power struggle between the hardliner conservatives, and the more moderate reformers. The former are smaller in number, but are also made up largely of veterans who were instrumental in making China powerful; the latter are larger in number, but seen as 'newcomers' who weren't involved in the struggle to make China great (WW II, the Cultural Revolution, etc.).
So, some of these people court Bo Xilai, seeking to establish alliances with him, and perhaps even plot an eventual takeover of the Party once Bo is in power. But it's a long-term plan, without any intent of immediate implementation (these people have proven themselves very much to be long-term and very cautious planners).
Wang Libo is aware of this, and when he comes under investigation, threatens to reveal Bo's connections and plans...accusations which could be considered treasonous. Bo responds by arresting those connected to Wang, and trying to apprehend Wang and his family; Wang, afraid that local authorities won't/can't protect him, seeks refuge at the U.S. Consulate.
Wang eventually surrenders himself to Beijing authorities, who then investigate his accusations, and find enough evidence to concern them...they then remove Bo from power, intending a more thorough investigation of Bo, and anyone connected with him.
Someone in the military leadership who'd been plotting with Bo realizes that his own role could be revealed, and in desperation, attempts an ill-fated military coup. But he lacks the time or resources to put anything effective together, and is stopped after a brief fight.
This is purely speculation...but it fits with the relatively few confirmed facts that are available to us right now. Hopefully, more news will be released in future, once the gov't feels it has everything under control, and then we can see how close my guesses are to reality.
But regardless...tons of drama in China right now. Doesn't seem that the Western media's covering it very much, but do keep an eye out for news about this...whatever happened, there's definitely more than has been reported thus far.
