Attempted Military Coup in China?

[wollery]

Do you have any idea why they've started calling her Bogu Kailai?

 

[Wolfman]

Do you have any idea why they've started calling her Bogu Kailai?

Yup.

She's not Han Chinese, she belongs to an ethnic minority (not sure which one). Bogu Kailai is her real ethnic name, but she also has a Chinese name (a common practice with minorities).

 

[McHrozni]

Nope...the 'coup', if it happened, would not have been led by either Bo Xilai or his wife. Most likely, as I speculated above, it would have been led by conservative military leaders who were opposed to Bo Xilai's demotion.

I second what dudalb said. These event - during the year of the dragon, in the land of the dragon - indeed resemble A Game of Thrones. The real value of this similarity is twofold: firstly it shows how realistic the political aspect of the books and series are (quite realistic). It also provides some extra entertainment in waiting for new episodes or books in the series.

McHrozni

 

[Puppycow]

Yup...things happening rather fast here, but quite the sordid scandal, it appears.

The fuller story -- both confirmed items, and items that are unconfirmed, but largely considered to be true -- as best I can piece it together at present.

It starts with Neil Heywood, a British businessman working in Chongqing. He had close ties with Bo's family, including helping his son get into a prestigious school in the UK (confirmed). There are also strong indications that Mr. Heywood engaged in an affair with Bo Xilai's wife (unconfirmed), although the official gov't line at present seems to be that there were 'economic issues' (significant debts) behind their falling out.

To add to the intrigue, the company that Heywood worked for was set up by British ex-spies (unconfirmed, but claimed by several western media outlets), leading to contemplation that Heywood may have been more than 'just a businessman'.

Anyway, Heywood was found dead in his apartment, the death ruled accidental due to alcohol poisoning after drinking too much...but no autopsy was done, and the body was cremated by Chinese authorities, leading to questions about a cover-up. But lacking evidence, not much was done.

Fast-forward in time. Wang Lijun somehow acquires evidence regarding Heywood's murder, and either out of a desire to see a wrong righted (less likely) or out of a desire for self-preservation when he sees that he's fallen out with Bo Xilai (more likely), he contacted the British Consulate and made an appointment to visit them (fact). However, for some reason (possibly the authorities had discovered his plan, and were seeking to stop him?), he never showed up at the British Consulate, and instead fled to the American Consulate, where it has now been confirmed by the Chinese media that he made the claim Heywood had been murdered by Bo Xilai's wife.

Which brings us up to the present. Bo Xilai has been stripped of all powers, and is under investigation. His wife, Bogu Kailai, has been arrested, along with her orderly/bodyguard. The Chinese authorities have now ruled Heywood's death a probable murder, and are in communication with British authorities over the case.

Still no word on the gunshots in Zhongnanhai, but the Chinese media is openly reporting now on both Bo Xilai and his wife. Again, this is purely my own speculation, but I suspect that Heywood did indeed have an affair with Bo's wife, which led to them engaging in mutual business activities; then either the romance or the business turned sour, putting Bo's wife in a precarious position (and possibly that of a woman scorned).

Anyway...China's all abuzz right now, my wife has gotten at least 20 messages on her phone so far reporting various items related to this news, and it is the main topic of conversation in our office.

ETA: Wang Lijun is also in very serious trouble over this...for revealing internal political issues like this to the U.S. embassy, instead of the Beijing government, he's been branded as a traitor by the Chinese President, Hu Jintao. That, piled on top of existing criminal charges that he was already facing before this started, seems to pretty much spell the end for his career, also.

ETA 2: A fairly recent pic of Bogu Kailai
[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_143934f84dfc1b4177.jpg[/qimg]

I just read a couple stories on this. They say that Heywood was "a member of Bo's inner circle" but not that he had an affair with his wife. Instead, she suspected him of betraying the family by leaking details of Bo's overseas financial holdings.

 

[Wolfman]

I just read a couple stories on this. They say that Heywood was "a member of Bo's inner circle" but not that he had an affair with his wife. Instead, she suspected him of betraying the family by leaking details of Bo's overseas financial holdings.

The romance thing is just a rumor, and an old one at that...dating back to before his death. Was just throwing it in as a possibility, could be completely untrue

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

So why did Wang Lijun go to the Brits and Americans? Going to the Brits might be related to Heywood, but it seems like such a poor move to go to them first and then go right back to the Chinese government.

(Not trying to imply anything, just a confused foreigner )

 

[wollery]

So why did Wang Lijun go to the Brits and Americans? Going to the Brits might be related to Heywood, but it seems like such a poor move to go to them first and then go right back to the Chinese government.

(Not trying to imply anything, just a confused foreigner )

As I understand it he booked an appointment with the UK consulate but never turned up. It seems he had information about the murder of Neil Heywood and thought they might protect him in return for it. I assume he didn't turn up because he thought or knew that he would be killed if he went anywhere near the UK consulate. He then went to the US consulate in Chonqing, hoping that they would help him, but they refused him anything more than temporary shelter. He stayed until the Beijing authorities sent people to get him because he didn't trust the local authorities not to turn him over to Bo's men, which would probably have led to his death.

His first aim was probably to get the UK authorities to grant him asylum in return for the information he had on Heywood's death and the Bo family's dealings (which include several British businessmen), but having failed to get that he simply wanted to stay out of the hands of the Chongqing authorities.

 

[Wolfman]

As I understand it he booked an appointment with the UK consulate but never turned up. It seems he had information about the murder of Neil Heywood and thought they might protect him in return for it. I assume he didn't turn up because he thought or knew that he would be killed if he went anywhere near the UK consulate. He then went to the US consulate in Chonqing, hoping that they would help him, but they refused him anything more than temporary shelter. He stayed until the Beijing authorities sent people to get him because he didn't trust the local authorities not to turn him over to Bo's men, which would probably have led to his death.

His first aim was probably to get the UK authorities to grant him asylum in return for the information he had on Heywood's death and the Bo family's dealings (which include several British businessmen), but having failed to get that he simply wanted to stay out of the hands of the Chongqing authorities.

In addition...ummm...

...nope...not much I can add...

 

[Puppycow]

Torture claims emerge in China's Bo Xilai scandal

Bo Xilai spearheaded a crackdown on Chongqing's mafia organisations, but people are now coming forward claiming this involved torture and false accusations.

These allegations have emerged since Mr Bo was stripped of his political roles for serious violations of communist party discipline.
. . .
"They tortured me for more than 40 hours to force me to confess. I was banned from going to the toilet or eating. They stabbed me with a pen if I disagreed," he told the BBC.

He said he was forced to admit that he was a member of an organised crime gang, and that he had been engaged in bribery, fraud and illegally supporting a religious organisation.

"They slapped me, kicked me and hit me with an ashtray," he said.

Mr Li said he was released a few months later after paying a "fine". Later he escaped Chongqing and has been on the run, fearing for his safety, ever since.

"Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun have done evil," he said.
. . .
One man who backs up the claims of torture is Li Zhuang, a Beijing lawyer who went to Chongqing to defend one of those accused in the mafia crackdown.

Mr Li was then himself charged with trying to persuade his client to claim he had been tortured.

He was arrested and spent a year and a half in prison. The lawyer said he was also tortured.

"They sat me down on what they call a 'tiger chair'. The chair is secured to the ground and you're strapped in at the waist," said Mr Li. The businessman Li Jun said his wife was also forced to undergo interrogation in the 'tiger chair'.

I wonder if this is making the news at all in China?

 

[Wolfman]

Torture claims emerge in China's Bo Xilai scandal

I wonder if this is making the news at all in China?

Oh, absolutely. First, unofficial stories and gossip are flying about everywhere; and second, now that the cat's out of the bag, they'll do everything they can to demonize Bo Xilai.

Prior to Wang Lijun's flight to the U.S. Consulate, this stuff would have been (and in many cases actually was) covered up by the government. The death of Heywood, the British businessman, was obviously extremely suspicious, and both his family and the British gov't had expressed concern over the way it was handled, and called for more thorough follow-up from the Chinese govt...with no response whatsoever.

However, when Wang Lijun went to the U.S. Embassy, he apparently brought with him some kind of proof that Bo's wife was involved in the murder (and perhaps Bo himself, at least in the coverup afterwards). Now the Americans and the Brits had proof, and the Chinese gov't faced a massive loss of face over the issue. Denial was no longer an option.

So Bo Xilai became Public Enemy Number One. It started with public statements by Premier Wen Jiabao, declaring that glorification of Cultural Revolution-style government was traitorous (he didn't mention Bo by name, but Bo was clearly the target of his statements); then a few days later, Bo was stripped of his powers. A short time after that, it was announced that his wife was under investigation for murder. And then after that, Bo was officially removed from all positions of government, and officially placed under investigation himself.

Everything in the Chinese media is depicting Bo as the evil enemy, and anything that further inspires public outrage against him is (overtly or covertly) encouraged by the government. This is a man who actually enjoys great popularity in China, and numerous conspiracy theories are also making the rounds in China, with claims that Bo and his wife are entirely innocent, and the whole thing is trumped up to remove him as a potential threat to the power of others (actually, I have no doubt at all that he was seen as a serious threat by some Chinese leaders, and am certain that they are quite happy to be able to use this event to get rid of him).

Here's an excellent article about the whole affair, that I'd highly recommend people read...it reinforces several of the points that I've already made, and gives a good insight into the current inner workings of the Chinese political process.

 

[McHrozni]

Stuff like this demonstrates why democracy is prefferable over one party rule, even in a country like China. I do hope the new generation of their leaders realizes that.

McHrozni

 

[Wolfman]

Stuff like this demonstrates why democracy is prefferable over one party rule, even in a country like China. I do hope the new generation of their leaders realizes that.

McHrozni

*sigh*

Ya' know, I wish you'd stick to just commenting on the actual events, rather than trying to make these grand political conclusions. Yes, in some situations, democracy works better; but were I to cherry-pick instances where China's done better, reacted faster, or been more efficient/successful than the U.S. because of their one-party rule, that would hardly justify the conclusion that, "Stuff like this demonstrates why one party rule is preferable over democracy".

I'm not seeking to turn this into yet another debate on an issue that you seem to drag into every discussion regarding China; just demonstrating that the argument itself, regardless of whether it is used to support democracy, dictatorship, or any other system of government you may wish to mention, is completely and utterly without merit.

 

[a_unique_person]

So....something happened. No one knows what.

 

[McHrozni]

*sigh*

Ya' know, I wish you'd stick to just commenting on the actual events, rather than trying to make these grand political conclusions. Yes, in some situations, democracy works better; but were I to cherry-pick instances where China's done better, reacted faster, or been more efficient/successful than the U.S. because of their one-party rule, that would hardly justify the conclusion that, "Stuff like this demonstrates why one party rule is preferable over democracy".

If you think it's on topic, go ahead

McHrozni

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

It looks like Bo Xilai was caught making suspicious moves much earlier, like wiretapping Hu Jintao:

When Hu Jintao, China’s top leader, picked up the telephone last August to talk to a senior anticorruption official visiting Chongqing, special devices detected that he was being wiretapped — by local officials in that southwestern metropolis.

The discovery of that and other wiretapping led to an official investigation that helped topple Chongqing’s charismatic leader, Bo Xilai, in a political cataclysm that has yet to reach a conclusion.

...

But Beijing was galled that Mr. Bo would wiretap Mr. Hu, whether intentionally or not, and turned central security and disciplinary investigators loose on his police chief, who bore the brunt of the scrutiny over the next couple of months.

“Bo wanted to push the responsibility onto Wang,” one senior party official said. “Wang couldn’t dare say it was Bo’s doing.”

Yet at some point well before fleeing Chongqing, Mr. Wang filed a pair of complaints to the inspection commission, the first anonymously and the second under his own name, according to a party academic with ties to Mr. Bo.

Both complaints alleged Mr. Bo had “opposed party central” authorities, including ordering the wiretapping of central leaders. The requests to investigate Mr. Bo were turned down at the time. Mr. Bo, who learned of the charges at a later point, told the academic shortly before his dismissal that he thought he could withstand Mr. Wang’s charges.

Mr. Wang is not believed to have discussed wiretapping at the United States consulate. Instead, he focused on the less self-incriminating allegations of Mr. Bo’s wife’s arranging the killing of Mr. Heywood.

But tensions between the two men crested, sources said, when Mr. Bo found that Mr. Wang had also wiretapped him and his wife. After Mr. Wang was arrested in February, Mr. Bo detained Mr. Wang’s wiretapping specialist from Liaoning, a district police chief named Wang Pengfei.

Linky.

 

[Wolfman]

Yes, more information is coming out, bit by bit. No surprise, but other reports indicate that Wang Lijun was planning to investigate Bo's wife's role in the murder, and was demoted by Bo for doing so. Bo then sought to shut down the entire investigation.

The interesting/frightening thing about this is the conspiracy theories flying about. Conspiracy theories are bad enough in the West, where people at least have access to accurate information about what really happened. In China, where much of the relevant info is hidden, such theories flourish. There are quite a large number of Chinese who believe that the entire thing is just trumped-up charges because the government was afraid that Bo was making them look bad, and gaining too much power.

While I'm certain there are elements in the Chinese gov't that are glad to see Bo out of the picture (and personally, I'm quite happy about it, too, the man has been worrying me for years), there's no way this is a manufactured plot to remove him from power. The gov't has lost massive face from the fact that a foreign national was murdered by the wife of a high government official, and that official then covered it up. It has become an international fiasco that has made the gov't look incompetent and corrupt. Had they been planning to remove Bo, they'd most definitely have chosen a method that involved less damage to their own reputation and image.

But the other side of this...there is no way on earth that either Bo or his wife will ever be found innocent. I don't know how much blame either holds in this, but after the huge denunciations from senior gov't leaders, and the significant support that Bo enjoys among some sectors of the Chinese populace, deciding later that he is innocent would pretty much inevitably lead to current leaders losing power, and Bo quite possibly becoming President. "The man who fought for the people of China, who was unfairly beaten down by the evil leaders seeking to hold on to their power, but who overcame everything and redeemed himself"

Not gonna' happen.

So...conspiracy theories that the whole thing is trumped up = bogus. But conspiracy theories that Bo's fate is pretty much sealed and delivered, and the gov't will do whatever it takes to ensure he's convicted = pretty damn likely.

 

[Virus]

So....something happened. No one knows what.[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/6024f9407d2d7e26.gif[/qimg]

Corrupt official removed from office for criticizing other corrupt officials and preaching a return to Communism as the solution to all the corruption.

 

[Wolfman]

Corrupt official removed from office for criticizing other corrupt officials and preaching a return to Communism as the solution to all the corruption.

While the summary of what he did is fairly correct, the main reason for his removal is A) his wife's suspected murder of a foreign national, and B) his own actions to cover up that murder. Had this not happened, he'd still be in power, corruption and calls for a return to hard-line Communism continuing unabated.

 

[tomwaits]

Looks like a top official started believing all his own hype and went a little too gung-ho in getting the bad guys, which of course meant that he had to assume everyone other than himself was guilty and use any means necessary to figure out the "truth" and eliminate any negative criticism. A modern day J. Edgar Hoover, in other words. And just like ol' Hoover, none of his superiors had the political clout to do anything about it. Except in the end, Bo's partner-in-crime spilled his guts to the world, which forced the hand of the authorities.

But at least he's gone and discredited, I guess. Were the Chinese really buying his tough guy "let's go back to the glory days of the Cultural Revolution" demeanor? If so, that's a little worrisome.

 

[tomasF]

Very complicated story indeed. I have not read everything about it yet, and I actually don't care to much about individual politicians carrers in China. In the end they all stand for the same ideology, which I could never vow for or support.
I can't say if there has been a attempt for a military coup or not, I don't think anyone here could. But I do believe as long as Chinas economic growth continues at this rate (and if you look at their economic data and statistics ) and it is truely impressive. THey will never have to fear a real uprising by their people.
At the point where they can not guarantee economic upward mobility for their people they will probably face serious problems though!