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Assistance required for telepathy proof

Hey, everyone. Sorry to get in on this conversation so late.

To clarify, the JREF will not accept a protocol that uses a polygraph to measure results. Polygraphs are notoriously unreliable, and they can be tricked. Golfy, you should be against using a polygraph as well.

Imagine the two following scenarios:

The volunteer hooked to the polygraph is a friend of yours. They intentionally increase their heart rate and GSR output at intervals you have decided upon in advance. Now, hopefully the test would be blinded so that was impossible. But really, if you can psychically transmit your thoughts to someone else, a polygraph is a superfluous addition to the test that serves to do nothing but complicate the procedure.

The alternate would be a volunteer chosen by the JREF. Wouldn't you worry that the person would intentionally increase their heart rate and GSR at the beginning of the test, during the control questions, thereby making it impossible to distinguish a difference between times they received your thoughts, and times they did not? Now, in this scenario, obviously, the JREF would never do that. But why would we agree to a test where you would have the ability to say the results were stacked?

Also, the Challenge E-mail Blog is not an advertisement for individuals who want to garner interest for their tests. I have not submitted your graphs for the blog, and will not be doing so in the future. The blog is a random cross-section of e-mails simply for readers who are interested in the kinds of things we receive. It is not a promotional tool.

~Remie
 
Golfy, one quick question. Have you ever considered the possibility that the reason your tests fail is not because the other person is always lying and wants you to fail, but because you are not telepathic and they cannot read your thoughts?
 
Hi Everyone
It seems that Golfy needs a little support.
I don't normally join in these discussions, but my feeling is that most of the 'hard' skeptics have not really been very open minded

RemieV said:
To clarify, the JREF will not accept a protocol that uses a polygraph to measure results. Polygraphs are notoriously unreliable
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Polygraphs are notoriously unreliable only when used as 'lie detectors'.
As this is not their function in the proposed experiment, this sentence seems meaningless.

I thought that GimmePepssi put the point rather well and humourously

GimmePepsi said:
I agree. From the point of view of the test, the polygraph is just a prop. Like if I said my power was that "I can levitate a polygraph machine 3 feet in the air", you wouldn't reasonably reject that protocol just because it includes a polygraph. The protocol can be designed so that the function of the polygraph machine as a lie-detecting device doesn't matter to the test.
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RemieV said:
and they can be tricked. Golfy, you should be against using a polygraph as well.
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If the experiment is double blinded, and the words drawn at random, then I do not understand why you say they can be tricked

RemieV said:
Imagine the two following scenarios:

The volunteer hooked to the polygraph is a friend of yours. They intentionally increase their heart rate and GSR output at intervals you have decided upon in advance. Now, hopefully the test would be blinded so that was impossible. But really, if you can psychically transmit your thoughts to someone else, a polygraph is a superfluous addition to the test that serves to do nothing but complicate the procedure.
~Remie
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fls explained it vey well

fls said:
This all sounds very similar to the presentiment research done by Radin and others, in which physiologic changes (like those used for lie-detecting), rather than conscious awareness, are used to indicate anomalous cognition. Radin's results are too similar to noise to draw conclusions strong enough to pass the Million Dollar Challenge, but if you can see a strong pattern in your data, regardless of what happens here, maybe you should contact Radin.

It may be that people aren't lying, but that the word didn't reach conscious awareness. In that case, incentives and honesty won't help you.


Linda
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Golfy probably 'muddied the waters' by saying that he didn't trust people,
and the 'hard' skeptics jumped on this statement. It is true that it may be paranoia - It's very difficult to know without knowing him -You must also bear in mind that most people are not conscious of their real feelings or motivations most of the time.
It could be that a polygraph or some such device, is vital to this experiment for the reasons given by fls
 
Speed of Light, what is difficult to understand about the statement: "The JREF will not accept a protocol that uses a polygraph to measure results."?
 
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And what about his attitude that any test that does not confirm his "ability" is defective and will not be acceptable?
 
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golfy said:
Hi Gzuzkryzt,

Yes I do. I already have a protocol which I believe is as tamper and deceit proof for both parties as is required by the JREF, after all it with the JREF that inspects the protocol for suitability and makes alterations to it if they fee it is required and agreeable on both sides.

To gain media presence may be a problem, I have been in contact with another university who seemed willing to be involved in the experiments if I could first demonstrate it to them to a high degree accuracy. That would be the academic covered and presumably it would not be hard to get media attention with the backup of a University Professor stating that I have demonstrated telepathic ability.

As for falsifiability, if the JREF accept the protocol and I win the MDC if I can prove my claim, I don’t see how outsiders opinion affects the winning of the prize as if is a JREF issue.

What do you think Gzuzkryzt?

golfy
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Golfy,

I think you are getting ahead of yourself. There is no point in developing a protocol with the JREF when you don't yet know what it would take for you to be able to demonstrate your abilities. I think that you need to focus on your own exploration in a systematic manner, as you have already outlined. You have not yet even demonstrated to yourself that you can do what you think you can do. When you have accomplished that, I think some of the other stuff will fall into place (the ability to generate interest in others such as the media and researchers at a university, clarifying what needs to be involved in the protocol). Considering the expiration of the MDC, you are only going to have one shot at this. Don't go in to it cold and spoil your chances. Right now, you think you already know what the results will be without running the experiment. Thousands of scientists (including myself) have thought the same thing and ended up with a big surprise. :)

Do the experiments, for your own sake.

Linda
 
Hi Dick,

I totally agree and have been in contact with the JREF and asked about my protocol as i am sure they will see any flaws in it if there are any as it is in their interest to make sure that the MDC is only won legitimately.

I will go it alone with them and see what can be achieved.

golfy
 
golfy said:
Hi Dick,

I totally agree and have been in contact with the JREF and asked about my protocol as i am sure they will see any flaws in it if there are any as it is in their interest to make sure that the MDC is only won legitimately.

I will go it alone with them and see what can be achieved.

golfy
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Before you "go it alone with them", could you tell us your definition of falsifiability and how it is reflected in your protocol proposal?

The JREF's interest before everything is that it is done legitimately. Hence, are you surprised that they won't allow a polygraph, golfy?
 
golfy said:
Hi Dick,

I totally agree and have been in contact with the JREF and asked about my protocol as i am sure they will see any flaws in it if there are any as it is in their interest to make sure that the MDC is only won legitimately.

I will go it alone with them and see what can be achieved.

golfy
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Golfy,

You're right, of course, that JREF is the real authority. But you might move forward much more quickly if you used this forum for one specific task: You suggest a protocol and then ask how a non-telepath could pass the proposed test. Then you revise the protocol to eliminate the problem.

People here are quite good at pointing out this sort of hole. Myself, I'm not very good at this and I'm always impressed with how others here can spot problems that would allow others without your talent to cheat.
 
Czarcasm said:
And what about his attitude that any test that does not confirm his "ability" is defective and will not be acceptable?
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I'm not convinced I fully understand where you are coming from.
Here is someone who has had 14 years of psychic experiences, who knows beyond a shadow of doubt that he has experienced paranormal occurances. Direct experience is much moe potent than mere scientific tests.
His aim is obviously to attempt to design a scientific experiment to try to prove it to others - What else can he do??

How can you possibly know whether he is right?
I thought skeptics were supposed to be open minded


If he designs an experiment which he is sure will succeed, and then he fails for whatever reason, there are two logical possibilities -
(a) His psychic ability is an illusion
(b) There was an unforeseen flaw in the experiment

You cannot possibly know which one if these possibilities is true.
You may guess that (a) is more likely, but Golfy may think (b) is true.

How could you possibly be 100% sure??

Why is it important anyway??
You two will presumeably always have opposing views, unless you suddenly become a believer, or he decides he was deluded for 14 years!

You can't logically expect him to adopt your skeptical scientific view.
Everyone's different
You're the skeptics, and he's the believer, and that's the way it is - Such is the nature of the challenge
 
Crundy said:
Golfy, one quick question. Have you ever considered the possibility that the reason your tests fail is not because the other person is always lying and wants you to fail, but because you are not telepathic and they cannot read your thoughts?
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I was going to probe this question as well. I was going to add that golfy claims "that he has telepathy" is the hypothesis that best explains his life experience over decades. However, that EVERYONE appears to lie about recieved messages would seem to be an unresolved issue with the hypothesis.

What people observing your experiences see, is that time and again your experiments fail to produce expected results, and each time you adjust your hypothesis to claim that situtation was an exception and justify the failure without abandoning the hypothesis.

Similarly, a person may come to believe they can "flip a coin and make it land on heads". They may even succeed a few times, but eventually a tails comes up. Rather than abandon the hypothesis, they will think of some reason why it failed "just that one time". Perhaps they "weren't concentrating hard enough". Maybe they can only do it on odd-minutes and not on even-minutes. Maybe something yellow in the room breaks the power. Maybe the coin lied. In the end it is always possible to construct a further-complicated theory on how such an ability operates, but at some point it simply seems more likely that the original hypothesis was nowhere near the mark. People here have simply reached that point, and are curious if you have accepted that there is such a point in your future. If you suggest that you will never reach that point, and will endlessly compicate your hypothesis until it becomes untestable, forgive people if they've no wish to continue with you on such a journey to an unenlightened end.
 
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Speed of Light said:
His aim is obviously to attempt to design a scientific experiment to try to prove it to others - What else can he do??
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He could try taking on board some of the legitimate suggestions that have been made to try and help him understand what he is ignoring in his attempts to set up his experiments, and how to improve them.
 
petre said:
I was going to probe this question as well. I was going to add that golfy claims "that he has telepathy" is the hypothesis that best explains his life experience over decades. However, that EVERYONE appears to lie about recieved messages would seem to be an unresolved issue with the hypothesis.

What people observing your experiences see, is that time and again your experiments fail to produce expected results, and each time you adjust your hypothesis to claim that situtation was an exception and justify the failure without abandoning the hypothesis.

Similarly, a person may come to believe they can "flip a coin and make it land on heads". They may even succeed a few times, but eventually a tails comes up. Rather than abandon the hypothesis, they will think of some reason why it failed "just that one time". Perhaps they "weren't concentrating hard enough". Maybe they can only do it on odd-minutes and not on even-minutes. Maybe something yellow in the room breaks the power. Maybe the coin lied. In the end it is always possible to construct a further-complicated theory on how such an ability operates, but at some point it simply seems more likely that the original hypothesis was nowhere near the mark. People here have simply reached that point, and are curious if you have accepted that there is such a point in your future. If you suggest that you will never reach that point, and will endlessly compicate your hypothesis until it becomes untestable, forgive people if they've no wish to continue with you on such a journey to an unenlightened end.
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Petre
You put it so eloquently, but in my opinion, you are not taking all the facts into consideration.
The experiments are designed to convince others, but the basis of Golfy's unshakeable belief is the spontaneous phenomena he has experienced over the years.
It may well be a lonely journey, as it is impossible for others to be as sure as Golfy is - At least that applies to Skeptics
 
Speed of Light said:
Petre
You put it so eloquently, but in my opinion, you are not taking all the facts into consideration.
The experiments are designed to convince others, but the basis of Golfy's unshakeable belief is the spontaneous phenomena he has experienced over the years.
It may well be a lonely journey, as it is impossible for others to be as sure as Golfy is - At least that applies to Skeptics
Click to expand...

One of the best ways to convince others is to address what they see as concerns, issues or holes in the experiments, rather than ignoring them, or complaining the people raising them are too stupid to understand.
 
Speed of Light said:
Petre
You put it so eloquently, but in my opinion, you are not taking all the facts into consideration.
The experiments are designed to convince others, but the basis of Golfy's unshakeable belief is the spontaneous phenomena he has experienced over the years.
It may well be a lonely journey, as it is impossible for others to be as sure as Golfy is - At least that applies to Skeptics
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No, thetest is not supposed to be designed to prove his ability to others-the test is supposed to see if he has the ability in the first place!
 
Speed of Light said:
...
Here is someone who has had 14 years of psychic experiences, who knows beyond a shadow of doubt that he has experienced paranormal occurances. Direct experience is much moe potent than mere scientific tests.
His aim is obviously to attempt to design a scientific experiment to try to prove it to others - What else can he do??
...
Click to expand...

One can fool oneself easily. The first step out of the labyrinth of self-deception is to consider the possibility one might be mistaken.

Speed of Light, we have no valid evidence at all for golfy's claims. He may as well have had 14 years of psychOTic experiences. We do not have evidence for that either. Both are possibilities, to be explored in a proper controlled test. Or not.
 
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Spped of Light, golfy,
I don't know if this will help or not, but I had about the same amount of time with psychic experiences in my teens and twenties. I came here to learn how to claim the million, and what kinds of test would help me prove myself, but also help me set up a system in the UK whereby fraudulent psychics could be weeded out from the profession so that an accreditation could be set up to protect consumers.

The guys here have good advice, and I hope that golfy will take it on board, and gain as much enrichment in his life as I did from learning about cold reading, confirmation bias, and so on.
 
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