Anyone heard about this dude? (pavelprorok on youtube)

[pavel_do]

Well Pavel, can you tell the difference between a photo (i.e. you see "something") or a blank (you see nothing)?

to answer that I need to print blank photos and try it.

 

[Akhenaten]

to answer that I need to print blank photos and try it.

Pavel, old mate, you shouldn't say things like that, since not everyone will realise that you're joking. In any case, I think the people here trying to help you deserve a serious answer to this legitimate question.


Cheers,

Akhenaten.

 

[Startz]

Pavel:

While you are considering alternative designs, have you submitted a revised protocol to JREF to see what they say?

 

[Marcus]

Because obtaining results before the end of the trial could negate the use and effect of a DBT.

It also provides too many excuses for the testee. They have agreed beforehand that the conditions are right for a fair trial, that will change suddenly if they find out during the test that they are failing.

 

[pavel_do]

Pavel, old mate, you shouldn't say things like that, since not everyone will realise that you're joking. In any case, I think the people here trying to help you deserve a serious answer to this legitimate question.


Cheers,

Akhenaten.

hello mate,
well actually I am serious, as he offered test where blank cards inside the envelops. I really need to have blank photos to try it, I never did. As to have empty envelopes does make difference from having blank photo inside, as the thickness of the envelopes slightly but become smaller.. when it is empty.. so I will know there is nothing inside just by holding it in my hand..
Have a nice weekend,
Cheers.

 

[pavel_do]

It also provides too many excuses for the testee. They have agreed beforehand that the conditions are right for a fair trial, that will change suddenly if they find out during the test that they are failing.

They THE JREF can also see it as an excuse of my success in case I will be showing good results.. isn’t it?? never the less.. the positive and negative out come of the test will be agreed before same as conditions and I will be asked if they all right and according the agreement before the test begin.. SO after we started NO EXCUSES from either side will be accepted and you know it. SO.. that should not be a problem.

 

[pavel_do]

Pavel:

While you are considering alternative designs, have you submitted a revised protocol to JREF to see what they say?

I had to change it a bit after reviewing it again.. I removed marking photos.. I don’t think any extra marks and numbers on them and envelopes are necessary.. and 1.5 hours per trial I think it is not enough.. I would say 2 hour 2,5 to be on the safe side.. as I need different amount of time for sets.. I cant say I will fit in 1,5 hours with 30 sets.. I might need a bit more.. and by rushing to fit in 1,5 I will be given answers not really sure of it.. just to make sure I fit in time.. I have sent it today.
Draft Pavel Ziborov Proposal:
[This draft by Dick Startz, July 18, 2008.]

Claim: The ability to identify photos in sealed envelopes just by holding the envelope in Pavel’s hand.

Materials:

62 sets of 5 photographs chosen by Pavel. Each set of five to be identical.

305 small opaque envelopes large enough to contain one photo. 300 slightly larger opaque envelopes large enough to contain the smaller envelope.

60 clips of a size to clip together one set of five envelopes.

At JREF's choice either:

(1) Pavel will arrange for all materials to be delivered to tester at least one week before test.

(2) Pavel will provide 1 set of five pictures. Tester will obtain copies and other materials at Pavel's expense.

Preparation:
Tester will have 3rd party who will not be present at test prepare 60 test sets each with one copy of the five photos, each photo sealed in a small envelope and small envelope inside a large envelope. One set of five pictures left open. (Note that the supplies allow for five extra pictures and envelopes for wastage. These are to be discarded once the sets are prepared and not delivered to the test.)

Test Procedure:
The test will consist of two trials (A & B) each of 30 attempts at identification. The open, numbered set of five pictures will be visible to all participants.

For each set:
1. Tester will hand Pavel one sealed set of photographs.
2. After handling the sealed envelopes, Pavel will select two envelopes and clearly write the photo number (or write the name of the photo or draw it) contained inside on each envelope. The other three envelopes will be set aside. The two marked envelopes will be opened. If one photo is correctly identified the tester will record “1-correct.” If both photos are correctly identified the tester will record “2-correct.” Otherwise the tester will record “None correct.”
3. The remaining three envelopes will not be opened until the conclusion of the second trial.
4. All materials from the set will be set aside.

At the end of 30 sets the tester will announce the score. Pavel succeeds at the trial if he receives 8 or more scores of “2-correct” or receives 21 or more scores of “2-correct” and “1-correct” combined.

Pavel succeeds at the preliminary challenge if he succeeds at either trial A or trial B.

Notes:
1. There will be a 10 minute break between trials.
2. If a trial takes more than two-and-two half hours it will be considered a failure without regard to the scores.

3. No talking or any kind of distraction with light or sound or any other interruption during the test. Observers are permitted to quietly leave the room, but should then not return until the trial underway is complete. No photography during the test except that both parties are permitted to videotape. No phones or other communications devices will be permitted in the test room.

4. No trickery, or cheating from either Pavel or JREF or other parties present in room during the test.

Environmental conditions:

1. No substance with a strong odor will be allowed in the room same, including no strong perfumes.

2. In the room where the test will be held, there will be no photos or pictures visible, except for those provided for the test.

3. After the time agreed upon to start the challenge, Pavel will indicate that the environmental conditions have been met. He will then have 15 minutes to prepare himself. Pavel may use a blindfold and earplugs as he wishes, provided that these items have been supplied to the tester one week before the test and are brought to the test along with the other materials.

The test will be commence at a time agreed upon by the parties, but between 1 pm and 2 pm local time unless waived by both parties.

Pavel may bring up to three people of his choice to observe the test.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

words

Again, this constitutes neither a proper double blind test nor does it meet the criteria of simplification requested by the JREF.

 

[pavel_do]

Again, this constitutes neither a proper double blind test nor does it meet the criteria of simplification requested by the JREF.

Ok... any other test sugestions?


What can be easier than my first test proposal? where I have to name correct one of two photos..?? as simple as that..? see nothing wrong with it.. Ok it take 65 times out of 100 to name correct ..in order to beat 1.000 odds to pass preliminary test, yes take allot of time.. that the only reason.. though not too much time.. but still it is not good enough.., so we made it not that easy 2 out of 5.. that will take less time and result would be more evident.. still not good enough..

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Ok... any other test sugestions?

Reduce the trials and reduce the number of photos used. (It is not necessary to explain again how your claimed ability works.)

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Pavel, as Marcus said: Beforehand, the applicant is always very sure of the claimed ability, the test procedure is to his liking and the setting meets his satisfaction.

As you could see with e.g. the Hans-Peter Borer test , the excuses start popping up as soon as the applicant failed to demonstrate the claimed ability.

One forum member who has done a JREF Challenge test is particularly well at crafting excuses. Mike "Sacagawea" Guska, or simply: edge. Read the thread if you like. It's only 37 pages of mind-numbing geshpusel.

Obviously, no one suggests you would fall prey to the same weakness.

 

[Startz]

I had to change it a bit after reviewing it again.. I removed marking photos.. I don’t think any extra marks and numbers on them and envelopes are necessary.. and 1.5 hours per trial I think it is not enough.. I would say 2 hour 2,5 to be on the safe side.. as I need different amount of time for sets.. I cant say I will fit in 1,5 hours with 30 sets.. I might need a bit more.. and by rushing to fit in 1,5 I will be given answers not really sure of it.. just to make sure I fit in time.. I have sent it today.
Draft Pavel Ziborov Proposal:
[This draft by Dick Startz, July 18, 2008.]

Claim: The ability to identify photos in sealed envelopes just by holding the envelope in Pavel’s hand.

Materials:

62 sets of 5 photographs chosen by Pavel. Each set of five to be identical.

305 small opaque envelopes large enough to contain one photo. 300 slightly larger opaque envelopes large enough to contain the smaller envelope.

60 clips of a size to clip together one set of five envelopes.

At JREF's choice either:

(1) Pavel will arrange for all materials to be delivered to tester at least one week before test.

(2) Pavel will provide 1 set of five pictures. Tester will obtain copies and other materials at Pavel's expense.

Preparation:
Tester will have 3rd party who will not be present at test prepare 60 test sets each with one copy of the five photos, each photo sealed in a small envelope and small envelope inside a large envelope. One set of five pictures left open. (Note that the supplies allow for five extra pictures and envelopes for wastage. These are to be discarded once the sets are prepared and not delivered to the test.)

Test Procedure:
The test will consist of two trials (A & B) each of 30 attempts at identification. The open, numbered set of five pictures will be visible to all participants.

For each set:
1. Tester will hand Pavel one sealed set of photographs.
2. After handling the sealed envelopes, Pavel will select two envelopes and clearly write the photo number (or write the name of the photo or draw it) contained inside on each envelope. The other three envelopes will be set aside. The two marked envelopes will be opened. If one photo is correctly identified the tester will record “1-correct.” If both photos are correctly identified the tester will record “2-correct.” Otherwise the tester will record “None correct.”
3. The remaining three envelopes will not be opened until the conclusion of the second trial.
4. All materials from the set will be set aside.

At the end of 30 sets the tester will announce the score. Pavel succeeds at the trial if he receives 8 or more scores of “2-correct” or receives 21 or more scores of “2-correct” and “1-correct” combined.

Pavel succeeds at the preliminary challenge if he succeeds at either trial A or trial B.

Notes:
1. There will be a 10 minute break between trials.
2. If a trial takes more than two-and-two half hours it will be considered a failure without regard to the scores.

3. No talking or any kind of distraction with light or sound or any other interruption during the test. Observers are permitted to quietly leave the room, but should then not return until the trial underway is complete. No photography during the test except that both parties are permitted to videotape. No phones or other communications devices will be permitted in the test room.

4. No trickery, or cheating from either Pavel or JREF or other parties present in room during the test.

Environmental conditions:

1. No substance with a strong odor will be allowed in the room same, including no strong perfumes.

2. In the room where the test will be held, there will be no photos or pictures visible, except for those provided for the test.

3. After the time agreed upon to start the challenge, Pavel will indicate that the environmental conditions have been met. He will then have 15 minutes to prepare himself. Pavel may use a blindfold and earplugs as he wishes, provided that these items have been supplied to the tester one week before the test and are brought to the test along with the other materials.

The test will be commence at a time agreed upon by the parties, but between 1 pm and 2 pm local time unless waived by both parties.

Pavel may bring up to three people of his choice to observe the test.

Congratulations Pavel. Even though JREF will likely want changes, you are certainly doing your part to move this along. I'm sure JREF will be get back to you much more quickly than last time.

 

[pavel_do]

Pavel, as Marcus said: Beforehand, the applicant is always very sure of the claimed ability, the test procedure is to his liking and the setting meets his satisfaction.

As you could see with e.g. the Hans-Peter Borer test , the excuses start popping up as soon as the applicant failed to demonstrate the claimed ability.

One forum member who has done a JREF Challenge test is particularly well at crafting excuses. Mike "Sacagawea" Guska, or simply: edge. Read the thread if you like. It's only 37 pages of mind-numbing geshpusel.

Obviously, no one suggests you would fall prey to the same weakness.

I am not one of them.. I either will be able to perform it or not to as simple as that.. no excuses.. unless I don’t know some force major situations..

 

[Startz]

They THE JREF can also see it as an excuse of my success in case I will be showing good results.. isn’t it?? never the less.. the positive and negative out come of the test will be agreed before same as conditions and I will be asked if they all right and according the agreement before the test begin.. SO after we started NO EXCUSES from either side will be accepted and you know it. SO.. that should not be a problem.

Pavel:

This does mean you that once the trial begins you have to waive any further complaints about odor, noise, etc. Do you feel comfortable doing this?

You should think about whether if early scores are poor this will cause stress and--subconsciously--make you feel that the test conditions have deteriorated. This is one reason that people have advised when you are practicing with a friend that you should complete all trials.

Always completing and recording all trials guards against what statisticians call "selection bias."

 

[pavel_do]

Pavel:

This does mean you that once the trial begins you have to waive any further complaints about odor, noise, etc. Do you feel comfortable doing this?

You should think about whether if early scores are poor this will cause stress and--subconsciously--make you feel that the test conditions have deteriorated. This is one reason that people have advised when you are practicing with a friend that you should complete all trials.

Always completing and recording all trials guards against what statisticians call "selection bias."

As I have explained before.. some time I dont know why first sets not going very well.. and I never drop the test.. cause very often than I make no mistake in some trials at all.. like there was time.. I made 5 mistakes of all 5 first sets.. but than named 8 following correct.. where 6 times I named both correct.. and 2 with one of two was correct. So I see no problem with case if first one will go not very good.. the STRESS will be there irrelevantly from type of test..as simple as that. Nothing I can do…

 

[pavel_do]

Reduce the trials and reduce the number of photos used. (It is not necessary to explain again how your claimed ability works.)

Any one has any suggestions of the test with less photos and less trials? Though at least a bit taking in consideration the way my ability works from what I have explained..

 

[Startz]

Reduce the trials and reduce the number of photos used. (It is not necessary to explain again how your claimed ability works.)

This would simplify and save time, and Pavel should certainly be open to requests from JREF along these lines.

Here's the fundamental problem. Pavel has always claimed that his talent is imperfect, although much better than chance. Accommodating this claim requires either many trials or many photos. Now of course if the talent is "too imperfect" then it isn't testable within the MDC framework. I don't think that applies here, but perhaps JREF will.

The tests could be much shorter if Pavel is comfortable with a success being correctly identifying both of the pictures he picks from five. But there already has been a long discussion in this thread about different statistical arrangements...

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Any one has any suggestions of the test with less photos and less trials? Though at least a bit taking in consideration the way my ability works from what I have explained..

20 trials with two possible pictures: A depicting a black circle, B being blank.
No one from the test team knows if either A or B is in the envelope.

Up to six minutes per trial. Break after ten if needed.

16 or more correct mean success.

 

[Startz]

Any one has any suggestions of the test with less photos and less trials? Though at least a bit taking in consideration the way my ability works from what I have explained..

On possibility is to have only two photographs. If you could identify the photo you choose 20 times or more out of 24 attempts that would be a success.

This would reduce the number of photos you needed to handle from 300 to 48--an enormous time saver and simplification.

 

[pavel_do]

On possibility is to have only two photographs. If you could identify the photo you choose 20 times or more out of 24 attempts that would be a success.

This would reduce the number of photos you needed to handle from 300 to 48--an enormous time saver and simplification.

Am I allowed to open envelopes immediately after I offered my answer?
Can I have 2 trials?
When there is two photos only, so it is test with pairs when I have to name one of two ( as it was proposed from the beginning?)
And am I allowed to choose one I am most sure of? Or I will be handled 1 of two photos to name?
Can we make 30 pairs per trial.. how many do I need to name correct?

If so, I think it can be worked out.. as does not make different in the and of the day..2 out of 5 or 1 out of 2.. I just tried to go for 2 out of 5.. as one out of 2.. would be considered as too easy.. and 2 out of 5 would be more evident..