Cont: All things Trump + Russia Part 3

[CapelDodger]

Virginia is the only race with any predictive value. The Democrat in New Jersey was running with an incumbent Republican who was the least popular governor in the country. We don't know what would have happened in Alabama if the Republican hadn't been a child molester. The Red to Blue seats in the Virginia House of Delegates is the only real data point that means anything and it's one state, a swing state.

Republicans might well be using the fear factor to rev up their donors, of course.

 

[CapelDodger]

Now that is interesting. Because one of the pieces of evidence that suggests collusion between the Trump transition team and Russia is that they softened the promise of aid to Ukraine from "lethal defensive weapons" to "appropriate assistance". If that is the case and they're now walking that back, I wonder what that says about the current relationship between the two?

Perhaps nobody told the DoS and Pentagon of the change of GOP policy?

"Signed off by the state department and the Pentagon earlier this year" could even refer to the final weeks of the Obama administration. I can't find the actual statement on the DoS site for clarification.

 

[Aridas]

We don't know what would have happened in Alabama if the Republican hadn't been a child molester.

Err... we pretty much do. The Republican would fairly certainly have won. That Doug Jones barely won despite having somewhat overwhelming advantages in pretty much everything other than base party affiliation is rather telling.

 

[CapelDodger]

Err... we pretty much do. The Republican would fairly certainly have won. That Doug Jones barely won despite having somewhat overwhelming advantages in pretty much everything other than base party affiliation is rather telling.

You say "barely won", but he hasn't won at all until he actually takes his seat. It'll be very telling if he never does.

 

[Zambo]

Of course there was Russian interference in the election. But it seems likely that for the Trump team the evidence for "collusion" may stop short and become a grey area of "contact". This I predict gives a result that enables the enquiry to justify the time and cost of the investigation but stopping short of a route to remove the President. Flynn is part of the scheme to bring about this result nothing more.

This will take until way into 2018 by which time we are back to letting the voters decide on Trump. Incidentally I think that is too early to see anything negative from the tax cuts.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Virginia is the only race with any predictive value. The Democrat in New Jersey was running with an incumbent Republican who was the least popular governor in the country. We don't know what would have happened in Alabama if the Republican hadn't been a child molester. The Red to Blue seats in the Virginia House of Delegates is the only real data point that means anything and it's one state, a swing state.

I think it's worth noting that in Virginia, Democratic Party votes by far outnumbered Republican votes and if it weren't for gerrymandering the Democrats would control their statehouse.

Slate: The Democrats won by a landslide in Virginia. The Republicans’ gerrymandered map still stood strong.

I don't think the Democrats are going to put up with this much longer. We might be stuck with the Electoral College for the foreseeable future making rural votes count more than urban votes. But gerrymandering to this degree has to go.

 

[BobTheCoward]

I think it's worth noting that in Virginia, Democratic Party votes by far outnumbered Republican votes and if it weren't for gerrymandering the Democrats would control their statehouse.

Slate: The Democrats won by a landslide in Virginia. The Republicans’ gerrymandered map still stood strong.

I don't think the Democrats are going to put up with this much longer. We might be stuck with the Electoral College for the foreseeable future making rural votes count more than urban votes. But gerrymandering to this degree has to go.

A non gerrymandered map favors republicans. Democrats naturally cluster into small areas.

The electoral college works fine if you continue expanding Congress.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Of course there was Russian interference in the election. But it seems likely that for the Trump team the evidence for "collusion" may stop short and become a grey area of "contact". ....

Hi new member with the same old conclusion we keep hearing that is drawn before we have all the facts.

Why do you think the Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee interviewed two key witnesses in NY when the vote for the tax bill was being taken thereby preventing any Democratic legislators on the committee from being able to question those two key witnesses? Think they might be trying to hide something?

WA Po House interview with longtime Trump aide fuels tension on intelligence panel

Committee staff members are expected to interview Rhona Graff, Trump’s longtime gatekeeper, on Dec. 22, according to multiple people familiar with the plans. In addition, they have tentatively scheduled an interview in New York this month with longtime Trump business associate Felix Sater.

The rare out-of-state interviews are the latest of several factors prompting Democrats to accuse Republicans of trying to wrap up the probe early in response to pressure from party leaders.

What do you think Flynn traded for his lenient plea bargain?

Think Trump might indeed have been up to his eyeballs in money-laundering Russian Oligarch money?

If there is no there there, what the hell is all this crap about?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

A non gerrymandered map favors republicans. Democrats naturally cluster into small areas.

The electoral college works fine if you continue expanding Congress.

WTF?

Legislative districts are not based on square miles.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Hi new member with the same old conclusion we keep hearing that is drawn before we have all the facts.

Why do you think the Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee interviewed two key witnesses in NY when the vote for the tax bill was being taken thereby preventing any Democratic legislators on the committee from being able to question those two key witnesses? Think they might be trying to hide something?

WA Po House interview with longtime Trump aide fuels tension on intelligence panel

What do you think Flynn traded for his lenient plea bargain?

Think Trump might indeed have been up to his eyeballs in money-laundering Russian Oligarch money?

If there is no there there, what the hell is all this crap about?

You don't know that Mueller pursued leniency. It could have been the plea bargain he thought appropriate.

You also don't know why republicans want to end it early.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

You don't know that Mueller pursued leniency. It could have been the plea bargain he thought appropriate.

You also don't know why republicans want to end it early.

That's a big dog laughing for sure.

 

[WilliamSeger]

A non gerrymandered map favors republicans. Democrats naturally cluster into small areas.

The electoral college works fine if you continue expanding Congress.

Districts are set to have approximately equal numbers of people; density doesn't matter.

And NO, the electoral college doesn't work fine if the intent is a democratic result. I'm tired of campaigns focusing on "battle ground states," and I'm tired of people not bothering to vote because the outcome in their state is foregone conclusion.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Districts are set to have approximately equal numbers of people; density doesn't matter.

And NO, the electoral college doesn't work fine if the intent is a democratic result. I'm tired of campaigns focusing on "battle ground states," and I'm tired of people not bothering to vote because the outcome in their state is foregone conclusion.

But Democrats pack themselves into a small area.

Suppose you set up a bunch of different methods to redistrict that did not consider party affiliation. Traditionally, this is by geography, compactness, and communities of interests. If you apply these principles, you will naturally pack Democrats into fewer districts.

As to the electoral college, if an electoral vote was proportional to population like it was in the 1790s and early 1800s, it would create outcomes more likely to mirror a democratic result.

 

[BobTheCoward]

That's a big dog laughing for sure.

So what evidence do you actually have of Mueller's intent regarding Flynn?

 

[Beelzebuddy]

So what evidence do you actually have of Mueller's intent regarding Flynn?

Basic inference. If Flynn was the highest value target Mueller had, he would have charged him with everything to make as much stick as possible. That's just how the justice system works. Instead he pleads guilty to basically a slap on the wrist. The only reason that a skilled prosecutor would do that is if Flynn flipped, and was providing testimony on an even higher valued target, which in this case is Trump, Pence, or both.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Basic inference. If Flynn was the highest value target Mueller had, he would have charged him with everything to make as much stick as possible. That's just how the justice system works. Instead he pleads guilty to basically a slap on the wrist. The only reason that a skilled prosecutor would do that is if Flynn flipped, and was providing testimony on an even higher valued target, which in this case is Trump, Pence, or both.

I don't think that inference is sufficiently substantiated by the evidence.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

I don't think that inference is sufficiently substantiated by the evidence.

Quelle surprise.

 

[Zambo]

Hi new member with the same old conclusion we keep hearing that is drawn before we have all the facts.

What do you think Flynn traded for his lenient plea bargain?

Think Trump might indeed have been up to his eyeballs in money-laundering Russian Oligarch money?

If there is no there there, what the hell is all this crap about?

My conclusion was there is Russian interference, the rest was prediction.

I think Flynn has traded contact with the Russians, this provides a safety net for the investigation that there is something there, but perhaps not collusion.

Let's speculate that the Russian Oligarchs bought 100 × USD3 million condo units at a premium of 20%. Is it money laundering or an investment and is that amount enough to bring the President down?

It's about Trump fired Comey which could be obstruction of justice. Then Comey was weakened by the "leaker" jabs and time. We are left with an investigation that I predict fizzles out and we are left with let the voters decide with a second term or not.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Quelle surprise.

Prove that is a strategy that prosecutors pursue and how often. Until you do, it is simply anecdote.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

My conclusion was there is Russian interference, the rest was prediction.

I think Flynn has traded contact with the Russians, this provides a safety net for the investigation that there is something there, but perhaps not collusion.

Let's speculate that the Russian Oligarchs bought 100 × USD3 million condo units at a premium of 20%. Is it money laundering or an investment and is that amount enough to bring the President down?

It's about Trump fired Comey which could be obstruction of justice. Then Comey was weakened by the "leaker" jabs and time. We are left with an investigation that I predict fizzles out and we are left with let the voters decide with a second term or not.

These two threads detail what evidence was in the public domain as of two weeks ago:

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/941120497823215616
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/941376110381731841

Since then there's been more evidence of obstruction re Comey, and a tweet yesterday that people much more au fait with the law than I am claim is straight-up witness tampering. And the removal of Baker should also be a tiny little additional weight in the evidence pile, as should the recent attacks on McCabe.

It'll also be worth keeping a watch on what happens to Jim Rybicki, David Bowditch, and Carl Ghattas, going forwards, given that they're the other three people that it's alleged Comey spoke to about Trump attempting to get him to drop the Russia investigation and, on a separate occasion, to go easy on Flynn. If we start seeing them being attacked and/or removed from their positions over the next few weeks or months, that may serve as a greater indication of something being afoot.