Ahmadinejad on the way out?

[a_unique_person]

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/04/iran.election.debate/index.html

In an unprecedented move in Iranian politics, a reformist presidential candidate accused President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of tainting the country's image by questioning the Holocaust and by wielding a reckless leadership style.

The frontrunners in Iran's presidential race clashed during a fiery debate broadcast to a national television audience on Wednesday evening.
The verbal jousting between Ahmadinejad and opponent Mir Hossein Mousavi -- a former prime minister and reformist candidate who poses a threat to the firebrand Iranian president -- lasted an hour and half.
Mousavi said Ahmadinejad's dictatorial ways have hurt Iran's image across the globe and could be a prelude to a dictatorship.
"There are two ways of confronting the country's problems," Mousavi said. "One is through a management style based on adventurism, instability, play-acting, exaggerations, wrongdoing, being secretive, self-importance, superficiality and ignoring the law. The second way is based on realism, respect, openness, collective wisdom and avoiding extremism."

In the compromised democratic system of Iran, it's good to see that a more moderate leader could still come to power. Iran needs it, as does the Middle East.

 

[Doctor Evil]

I hope he loses, and will be happy to see him go. However, I do not expect to see a major change in Iran's policies. As far as I know they are not determined by the president anyway.

 

[Tin Foil Timothy]

I hope he loses, and will be happy to see him go. However, I do not expect to see a major change in Iran's policies. As far as I know they are not determined by the president anyway.

No they are not. The president has no power over Iran's foreign policy or nuclear projects or military

 

[Sword_Of_Truth]

In the compromised democratic system of Iran, it's good to see that a more moderate leader could still come to power. Iran needs it, as does the Middle East.

A more moderate leader is coming to power? Did the mullahs suddenly all eat their scimitars and leave Iran to the Teletubbies while I was away?

It's the mullahs who chose Ahmedinijad. It's the Mullahs who are funding terrorist attacks against Israel, Iraq and US forces and are pursuing nuclear weapons. Smackdude Immadinnerjacket was never more than an enthusiastic cheerleader.

Wake me up if the mullahs suddenly have an epiphany that terror, oppression and genocide are no longer a Good Thing™, ok?

 

[Tin Foil Timothy]

The president of Iran not a leader and has very limited powers. Him being replaced will make not the slightest difference, except the, cough, 'Western' propagandists will have to find someone else to mistranslate.

 

[CapelDodger]

It's the mullahs who chose Ahmedinijad.

The voters chose Ahmedinejad.

It's the Mullahs who are funding terrorist attacks against Israel, Iraq and US forces and are pursuing nuclear weapons.

Allegedly.

Smackdude Immadinnerjacket was never more than an enthusiastic cheerleader.

Ahmedinejad has been a great disappointment to the mullahs. He was their favoured candidate, so his failings and idiocies (such as falling for Holocaust denialism) reflects badly on them. So would his failure to be re-elected.

I'm sure they'd have preferred a stronger candidate but having promoted the jumped-up twat they're stuck with him. There's no chance of him stepping down voluntarily and they couldn't force him.

If Mousavi wins (which I rather think he will) we'll see an immediate change in Iran's diplomacy. New presidents in both the US and Iran reaching out to each other ... that'll cause a stir.

Wake me up if the mullahs suddenly have an epiphany that terror, oppression and genocide are no longer a Good Thing™, ok?

Would you believe it anyway?

 

[CapelDodger]

The president of Iran not a leader and has very limited powers. Him being replaced will make not the slightest difference, except the, cough, 'Western' propagandists will have to find someone else to mistranslate.

I think we're already seeing the shift from a president who's the all-powerful Voice of Iran (when he's Ahmedinejad) to a powerless voice in the wilderness (when he's a reformist).

After all, Iran is a nation dominated by mad mullahs obsessed with exterminating Jews : it always was and always will be. Irony

I think it will make a big difference. The president has the power of the soap-box, and the veto powers of the religious council are shrinking inexorably. If they push things too far there'll be street-fighting, and they can't be sure of winning. They came in on the back of a Revolution, after all.

A revolution which has run its course, IMO. Iran bears watching. A rapprochement between the US and Iran would be a stunning foreign-policy achievement for both Presidents.

 

[Tin Foil Timothy]

After all, Iran is a nation dominated by mad mullahs obsessed with exterminating Jews : it always was and always will be. Irony

I don't see Jews all over the world being assassinated/exterminated. They can't be that obsessed can they?

Of course in the Zionist Fantasy World everybody is obsessed with exterminating Jews. Especially those who dare to tell the truth about the crimes of Israel.

 

[applecorped]

I don't see Jews all over the world being assassinated/exterminated.

Any more?

 

[MattusMaximus]

Maybe there is a reformist movement forming among the people? From what I understand, the mullahs who really run the show behind the scenes in Iran are getting pretty old... perhaps the new generation of Iranians senses this, as well?

 

[a_unique_person]

Maybe there is a reformist movement forming among the people? From what I understand, the mullahs who really run the show behind the scenes in Iran are getting pretty old... perhaps the new generation of Iranians senses this, as well?

There has always been a reformist element, that's how Ahmadinejad won in the first place, the reformists were prevented from participating fully in the previous election.

 

[Tin Foil Timothy]

I don't see Jews all over the world being assassinated/exterminated.

Any more?

Is this some kind of $64,000 cryptic question on a crass TV quiz show?

Anymore what?

Oh you mean 'truth'? Oh right.

Yeah sure, I post plenty of truths. The Zionist Apologists get all hot and sweaty and burst a few blood vessels and kill a few brain cells trying to squash them with lies and diversions. On the other hand the realists usually agree.

Applecorped, I couldn't decipher the point of your post. You obviously had a vibe in in mind when posting. what was it.

 

[marksman]

Every election since Ahmadinejad came to power there is speculation that a moderate will unseat him.

In 2005, he came to power with 62% of the vote.
In the legislative elections in 2007, when it was speculated that Ahmadinejad's conservatives would suffer sweeping defeat, they suffered only minor losses (not unusual in mid-term elections) and maintained a majority of seats.

I am highly doubtful that Ahmadinejad will be defeated. There seems to be a lot of wishful thinking going on, a need to "prove" that Iran is truly a democracy, and a hope that the election of a moderate with begin to "fix" politics in the region because Iran is a highly destabilizing negative influence in the region. But I don't think it's going to happen.

My position is not based on the notion that Iran is dominated by the clericy (though it is), or that the elections are rigged (I have no idea). I simply see little evidence that there is a huge groundswell of popular rebellion against Ahmadinejad outside of Western Media pipe dreams.

Would I be happy to see Ahmadinejad ousted by Mousavi? Sure. But I find it unlikely.

Also, despite Mousavi being touted as a reformer, let's not imagine that his Presidency would represent a major shiftin policy. Mousavi was Prime Minister during the Iran-Iraq War. He is, in many ways, a Cold Warrior. While he seeks to open Iran politically, mostly to benefit his party in local elections, and makes nice speeches about tolerance and open media, his governance will likely be less radical than that. Of course, he can't help but be more centrist than the radical Ahmadinejad, and, at least, Mousavi is not a Holocaust denier.

 

[geni]

It's the mullahs who chose Ahmedinijad.

Not so. If you want to build a theory of who chose him the revolutionary guard would be better candidates

Wake me up if the mullahs suddenly have an epiphany that terror, oppression and genocide are no longer a Good Thing™, ok?

Persia hasn't tried for genocide in centuries.

 

[geni]

Maybe there is a reformist movement forming among the people? From what I understand, the mullahs who really run the show behind the scenes in Iran are getting pretty old... perhaps the new generation of Iranians senses this, as well?

The mullahs ceased to run the show some time ago. They still habe influence but I doubt they would do too well in a confrontation with the revolutionary guard. From the POV of the rest of the world the rise in power of the revolutionary guard is a problem

 

[geni]

My position is not based on the notion that Iran is dominated by the clericy (though it is), or that the elections are rigged (I have no idea). I simply see little evidence that there is a huge groundswell of popular rebellion against Ahmadinejad outside of Western Media pipe dreams.

Infalation is up and the fall in oil prices is causeing issues for Ahmadinejad's social programs.

Also, despite Mousavi being touted as a reformer, let's not imagine that his Presidency would represent a major shiftin policy. Mousavi was Prime Minister during the Iran-Iraq War. He is, in many ways, a Cold Warrior. While he seeks to open Iran politically, mostly to benefit his party in local elections, and makes nice speeches about tolerance and open media, his governance will likely be less radical than that. Of course, he can't help but be more centrist than the radical Ahmadinejad, and, at least, Mousavi is not a Holocaust denier.

A less antagonistic iran with fewer nuclear ambitions would be an acceptable outcome.

 

[ravdin]

As has been stated many times already, Ahmadinejad has no real power. I'd welcome seeing a new face represent the Iranian regime to the outside world. But I wouldn't expect much to change, particularly with respect to their nuclear program and their proxy militants.

 

[marksman]

Infalation is up and the fall in oil prices is causeing issues for Ahmadinejad's social programs.

That's true, but the Iranian population is fairly well-educated. I think they know that Ahmadenijad's programs need higher gas prices. Heck, it's not like Mousavi can affect oil prices either.

The social programs don't seem to be the issue in this election anyway. Ahmadenijad seems to be framing Mousavi as a tired old man working for the inept ousted government that Ahmadinejad replaced. Ahmadinejad's implicit message: "No matter how bad you think the economy is now, can you remember how bad it was before I took over? That's what Mousavi represents." Problem is, most of Iran doesn't remember when Mousavi was Prime Minister, because most of Iran was born after 1988.

Mousavi is not takign issue with Ahmadinejad's social programs, and in fact, plans to continue them. He mostly attacks Ahmadinejad as someone who can't work well with others (in or out of Iran), has wrecked Iran's public image, and whose weird endtime view of the world didn't allow him to plan long-term, which made this economic downturn worse. Problem is, most Iranians know that the region hates Iran because they are Shi'a, and Ahmadinejad, while admittedly loony, only adds to that marginally. Also, anybody who remembers Ahmadinejad's predecessor Khatami (and that was only five to ten years ago) is at least a little sympathetic to the notion that the reformers, as well-intentioned as they might be, tend to be fairly inept at getting anything accomplished. A younger reformer might have fared better than Mousavi, who really was part and parcel of the prior administration.

A less antagonistic iran with fewer nuclear ambitions would be an acceptable outcome.

Hey, that would be great. And turly, it does seem that Ahmadinejad is more gung-ho about nukes even then the clerical leadership, who tend to take a long-term view of things. Ahmadinejad wants to make Iran a nuclear power during his administration so he can take credit for it. The clerics are perfectly happy to put things on hold for a decade while they get their economic house in order.

 

[Thunder]

The problem with Ahmedinajad leaving, is that he has been stupid enough to flaunt his bad attitudes and bigotries. Another leader may have identical goals, but may not be as stupid about telling the world about them.

If not for Ahmedinajad's big mouth, Iran may have been able to develop a nuke, without the world caring one single bit...until it was too late.

 

[geni]

As has been stated many times already, Ahmadinejad has no real power.

Stated but not shown. His position gives him a fair bit of power and his links to the revolutionary guard more still.

I'd welcome seeing a new face represent the Iranian regime to the outside world. But I wouldn't expect much to change, particularly with respect to their nuclear program and their proxy militants.

Nuclear program is Ahmadinejad driven. Fairly easy for someone else to ease off on.