Ahmadinejad on the way out?

[geni]

The Iranian Revolution wasn't an armed insurrection. It started on the streets and escalated out of the Shah's government's control. The army refused to move, the police melted away, the Shah ran away (he had a habit of that), and the whole rotten structure collapsed.

With that in mind ... how do the beneficiaries of that revolution feel today? Uncomfortable, I imagine.

The Revolutionary Guard has too much to fight for and nowhere to run to. I can't seem them loseing power for a fair while yet.

 

[CapelDodger]

Organised strikes are a tactic normaly used by the urban poor. Ahmadinejad's support amoung that group isn't too bad.

Strikes are hard to organise amongst the poor. Workers in critical industries are generally better-off and much easier to organise.

Ask yourself : if you worked in the Iranian oil-industry who would you think offers the best prospects? I rest my case . The economy is already shaky, and calling on god fails to provide.

 

[CapelDodger]

The Revolutionary Guard has too much to fight for and nowhere to run to. I can't seem them loseing power for a fair while yet.

They can run tanks up the streets, but there's no way they can keep the society functioning. Revolutionary Guards aren't separate from the Iranian community ; they have families and friends, some of whom will be out on the streets they'e been ordered to shoot along. They're not like (for instance) the Burmese Army.

A diplomatic compromise is called for. One that vaguely holds true to the spirit of the Revolution in a manner acceptable to all parties.

 

[negativ]

They can run tanks up the streets, but there's no way they can keep the society functioning. Revolutionary Guards aren't separate from the Iranian community ; they have families and friends, some of whom will be out on the streets they'e been ordered to shoot along. They're not like (for instance) the Burmese Army.

A diplomatic compromise is called for. One that vaguely holds true to the spirit of the Revolution in a manner acceptable to all parties.

They can run tanks up the streets, but there's no way they can keep the society functioning. PLA soldiers aren't separate from the Chinese community; they have families and friends, some of whom will be out on the streets they'e been ordered to shoot along. They're not like (for instance) the Schutzstaffel.

A diplomatic compromise is called for. One that vaguely holds true to the spirit of the Revolution in a manner acceptable to all parties.

 

[geni]

Strikes are hard to organise amongst the poor. Workers in critical industries are generally better-off and much easier to organise.

Ask yourself : if you worked in the Iranian oil-industry who would you think offers the best prospects?

Probably not the ones who can be replaced by outsiders. It's harder to ship in large numbers of lower skill workers than a small number of high skill workers.

 

[geni]

They can run tanks up the streets, but there's no way they can keep the society functioning.

They run about a third of the economy.

Revolutionary Guards aren't separate from the Iranian community ; they have families and friends, some of whom will be out on the streets they'e been ordered to shoot along. They're not like (for instance) the Burmese Army.

The Burmese Army is conscripted. They very much have family and friends out there. The Revolutionary Guards are less conscripted and come from the hard core conservative groups.

 

[Damien Evans]

You don't know, so that loses you points. Einstein said God exists. I'd rather listen to Einstein than some Internet chat room guy.

"It was, of course, a lie what you read about my religious convictions, a lie which is being systematically repeated. I do not believe in a personal god and I have never denied this but have expressed it clearly. If something is in me which can be called religious then it is the unbounded admiration for the structure of the world so far as our science can reveal it."

- Albert Einstein.

 

[marksman]

how do the beneficiaries of that revolution feel today? Uncomfortable, I imagine.

I am no mind-reader, but I can't imagine anybody is ever pleased at the need to quell social unrest.

But these are disorganized protests by a dissatisfied and generally disorganized political movement. I don't think anybody realistically believes this is going to lead to an overthrow of the mullahs, although some in the West seem to be trading in their "Democratic Revolution" meme for a "Moderate Counterrevolution" meme.

 

[FireGarden]

It lacks credibility, doesn't it? Even if it's true.

More and more such anomalies will likely emerge as detailed results come in. Solidly middle-class districts going for Ahmedinejad, over 100% turnouts in some districts, the usual stuff (true or not it's very credible).

I think the powers-that-be have over-reached themselves because they're not terribly clever.

Via Juan Cole,
http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html

Karoubi got 17% of the vote in 2005:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_presidential_election,_2005#Results

His vote has dropped, errr, substantially this time round! Less than 1%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_presidential_election,_2009#Results

 

[marksman]

Karoubi's drop doesn't surprise me. It's like H. Ross Perot getting 19% in the US Presidential election of 1992 and only 8% in 1996. And Karoubi doesn't have the independent wealth that Perot did.

What's more interestig to me is the drop in invalid ballots, from 2% to 1%. One would expect the rate of error to be rather uniform. Was there a change in the ballot to make it easier to use? If not, the drop may be caused by vote inflation (i.e., fake votes added to the tally). The problem is, the drop would be caused by a mere 300,000 votes. Even if all those votes were for Ahmadinejad, he'd still have won. Which means voter fraud could only be accomplished by 1) Ahmadinejad's supporters purposely submitting fraudulent error ballots, so as not to change the error rate too much, or 2) vote changing, which is something that should be a lot easier to ferret out.

 

[CapelDodger]

They run about a third of the economy.

They don't so much run it as oversee it and leech off it (which is probably why the economy is a mess). If the workers and management stop actually running it everything grinds to a halt PDQ.

If the civil service and the administrators and the workers and the shopkeepers all stop co-operating they can't be beaten back to it.

The Burmese Army is conscripted. They very much have family and friends out there.

There is a conscripted element of the Burmese Army - conscription is a proven way to keep young men under control. There is also a regular element of career soldiers. I'm no great expert on the Burmese Army but as I understand it the regular element is effectively a hereditary clan, quite separate from the general population. It's not something I've delved into.

What I do know is that you don't keep a population in subjection with a conscript army. It doesn't work.

The Revolutionary Guards are less conscripted and come from the hard core conservative groups.

But do they? It looks like a career opportunity to me, where old style family influence can be applied. It's been around long enough to be quietly corrupted. One third of the economy is a big slice of pie, after all.

The leadership may be old revolutionaries and veterans of the Iran-Iraq War but the bulk of it isn't.

 

[CapelDodger]

Karoubi's drop doesn't surprise me. It's like H. Ross Perot getting 19% in the US Presidential election of 1992 and only 8% in 1996. And Karoubi doesn't have the independent wealth that Perot did.

That's not a good comparison. Karoubi has an ethnic vote and a local presence : Perot had neither. Ahmedinejad has done nothing for the Lurs; Karoubi has at least raised their global profile.

(I'd never heard of them before, and I doubt I'm alone in that.)

 

[CapelDodger]

I am no mind-reader, but I can't imagine anybody is ever pleased at the need to quell social unrest.

Especially before they've succeeded.

But these are disorganized protests by a dissatisfied and generally disorganized political movement. I don't think anybody realistically believes this is going to lead to an overthrow of the mullahs, although some in the West seem to be trading in their "Democratic Revolution" meme for a "Moderate Counterrevolution" meme.

It's too early to tell how organised they might be. Two days doesn't demonstrate a trend.

 

[CapelDodger]

Probably not the ones who can be replaced by outsiders. It's harder to ship in large numbers of lower skill workers than a small number of high skill workers.

There's no question of Iran's oil industry being sold off to foreigners, whatever happens. It will remain a national asset run by Iranians. The question is : who can run it better for all concerned?

The Supreme Council is hardly going to bring in Western contractors to break a strike. Of course the Chinese may be able to get their feet under the table while the Supeme Council is looking the wrong way ...

 

[CapelDodger]

They can run tanks up the streets, but there's no way they can keep the society functioning. PLA soldiers aren't separate from the Chinese community; they have families and friends, some of whom will be out on the streets they'e been ordered to shoot along. They're not like (for instance) the Schutzstaffel.

The Chinese Government had to bring in units from way beyond Beijing to do the deed. Rednecks with no sympathy for students and long-hairs.

A diplomatic compromise is called for. One that vaguely holds true to the spirit of the Revolution in a manner acceptable to all parties.

Which is what followed Tianmen Square. Implicitly, but revealed by subsequent history.