Ahmadinejad on the way out?

[SezMe]

The amount of denial and wishful thinking you see among certain..by no means all...on the Left concerning Iran is mindboggling.

As well, the belligerent approach among certain (such as Bolton) ... by no means all ... on the right concerning Iran is cringe-worthy.

 

[CapelDodger]

The 700,000 Jews who left the Arab and Muslim countries deserve to be able to return to their homes..or received compensation for their property.

The Palestinian refugees who were forced out or left Israel in 1948 should be allowed to return to their property or be compensated for their lost land. I predict any Israel/Palestine treaty will include allowing 100,000 Palestinians to return with the rest getting compensation.

Some form of compensation will have to be part of the deal. Most of the post-1948 Palestinian diaspora is second-generation and settled : compensation will at least be recognition of what happened to their parent and grandparents.

The situation in Lebanon would continue to be tricky but something could be worked out. Lebanese situations have always been tricky, but something is always worked out. Money works wonders in the Levant .

That said, this is not about Palestine. This is about carpet-chewing Iranian clerics. Until the election results are in (this week), after which it will be about them.

I reckon Ahmedinejad is toast. I've had an eye on Iran since before the Revolution and I sense a sea-change. Of course it could be wishful thinking : as a history-buff I would love to watch an actual revolution through all its phases. It's one thing to read and theorise about them, but to see one in action is a rare thing.

 

[CapelDodger]

As well, the belligerent approach among certain (such as Bolton) ... by no means all ... on the right concerning Iran is cringe-worthy.

An unbelligerent Iran would kick a crutch out from under a lot of conservatives - within and without Iran. Iranian conservatives need the likes of Bolton as much as he needs them. The time has come when none of them actually matter.

 

[Marc39]

Some form of compensation will have to be part of the deal. Most of the post-1948 Palestinian diaspora is second-generation and settled : compensation will at least be recognition of what happened to their parent and grandparents.

I wouldn't hold my breath. No compensation is forthcoming, nor, should it. Further, even the most remote chance of compensation would be contingent on reciprocal compensation to the 900,000 Jews kicked out of their homes in Arab countries.

The situation in Lebanon would continue to be tricky but something could be worked out. Lebanese situations have always been tricky, but something is always worked out. Money works wonders in the Levant .

Maybe after 60 years, Lebanon can finally grant citizenship to the 400,000 Palestinians living in squalor in Lebanon, denied them, so they could qualify for employment and healthcare, and, drop the ban on employment in 70 different jobs.

 

[Thunder]

No compensation is forthcoming, nor, should it.

Tell that to Holocaust survivors. They don't seek compensation for lost property but for pain and suffering.

 

[CapelDodger]

Winston Churchill would disagree with you.

I should care why? Winston Churchill was intellectually challenged and poorly educated to boot.

He recognized the validity of a Jewish state.

Palestinians should care? Some fat alcoholic Anglo-American ardent Imperialist with his eye on the Middle East?

Of course he favoured a European colony in Palestine, dependent on a foreign patron (in his imagination Britain; in reality the US). Zionists cut up rough when he carved Transjordan from the Mandate, and when South Lebanon was ceded to the French Mandate, but Winston didn't give a toss.

What is lost on many, if not most, is that Israel wasn't created with the intent of denying others rights, but, quite simply, to provide a safe sanctuary for Jews to live wihout persecution.

Rubbish. Have you not read Herzl?

Israel isn't (and never was) a refuge for victims. It is meant as a positive demonstration that European Jews are just as capable of creating a nation-state as any other Europeans.

Since the state couldn't be founded in Europe (all of which was claimed) it was founded where brown people lived (Europeans used to do that).

Anyone with any depth of insight into Israeli society recognizes the commitment to human rights and civil liberties, and, for all citizens. Israel is not perfect, but, no state is.

Anyone with any depth of understanding knows that you can't say anything absolute about Israeli society. It's more fragmented than Lebanon. The idea that Jews are all pretty much alike simply because they're Jewish was always a nonsense.

Israel isn't just imperfect, it's unsustainable.

What would a "Catholic State" called Italy even mean? What would a "Greek Orthodox State" called Greece even mean? Nobody seems to mind. I wouldn't lose too much sleep over Israel.

Italy and Greece are secular states, and are just what they are. One's in Italy, the other in Greece.

What is a "Jewish State"? Is Jewish a religion, or a race? Are non-Jews allowed? Are they allowed but only as a minority? Who exactly is Jewish and who isn't?

Don't look to Israel for a clear answer.

Israel's ethos is reflected in their Declaration of Independence, which emphasizes equal rights to all.

Israel's ethos is demonstrated by its behaviour.

Human rights is the foundation of Israeli society.

Military superiority is the foundation of Israeli society. The military and the arms industry are the backbone of Israeli society today.

Israel's 1.5 million Arabs are not exactly stampeding out of the country.

Diasporan Jews aren't exactly flooding into it. There's no reason for the Arab minority within Israel to leave having stuck it out for this long.

Israel's presence in the "territories" is not an occupation, although, those uninformed of the subject matter often fall into this that propaganda trap. The reality of the situation is Pals have no rights at all because they are governed by fascist regimes.

You should read that back to yourself and wonder how a normal person might see it.

It's not pretty, is it?

Palestinians are just people. They aren't their regimes, they aren't their genetic heritage, they're just people. Each an individual, having to live with the Jewish State concept that really doesn't envision them being there.

Palestinians - "Pals" - were people when they were ruled by Seljuks, and Ottomans, and Brits, and they lived with it. The Israelis uprooted them or planted their own state (and, hypothetically, religion) over them. You have to go back to the Crusader Kingdoms for that (and they didn't last).

Provoked by acts of war committed by Hizbullah, a terror group.

Israel was so easily provoked, just when Hezbullah was ready for them. They're ready for them again (which is one reason why Israeli posturing over Iran is such a joke). Hezbullah isn't a "terrorist group"; it's the state of South Lebanon. It made its name by being scrupulously honest, serving the people, and by driving the Israelis out in 2000.

Provoked by acts of war committed by Hamas, a terror group.

Another easy provocation. And another failure.

Provoked by Iranian existential threats. Notice a certain trend?

Massve inflation of existential threats.

What's next? China?

Yawn.

That doesn't fool me in the slightest.

 

[CapelDodger]

I wouldn't hold my breath. No compensation is forthcoming, nor, should it. Further, even the most remote chance of compensation would be contingent on reciprocal compensation to the 900,000 Jews kicked out of their homes in Arab countries.

Those Jews should also be compensated They didn't create the Jewish State that stirred up so much antagonism.

Maybe after 60 years, Lebanon can finally grant citizenship to the 400,000 Palestinians living in squalor in Lebanon, denied them, so they could qualify for employment and healthcare, and, drop the ban on employment in 70 different jobs.

Maybe, after forty years, Israel can grant citizenship to the occupied Palestinians. A one-state solution.

Why should Lebanon (a complicated state in the first place) be required to absorb this population deliberately driven across their border when Israel is not required to take them back? Your concern for Palestinians in Lebanon is pure hypocrisy.

 

[Thunder]

What is a "Jewish State"? Is Jewish a religion, or a race? .

Do the Islamic Republics of Iran and Afghanistan equally disturb you?

How about the Arab Republics of Egypt, Syria, and Libya?

And the Czech Republic?

 

[Marc39]

I should care why? Winston Churchill was intellectually challenged and poorly educated to boot.

Well, Churchill never did have the distinction of blathering in an Internet chat room, but, still...

Palestinians should care? Some fat alcoholic Anglo-American ardent Imperialist with his eye on the Middle East?

You forgot Italy, France, Japan, the entiire League of Nations, US President Woodrow Wilson, both Houses of the US Congress, the UN, and, most importantly, God.

Of course he favoured a European colony in Palestine, dependent on a foreign patron (in his imagination Britain; in reality the US). Zionists cut up rough when he carved Transjordan from the Mandate, and when South Lebanon was ceded to the French Mandate, but Winston didn't give a toss.

Those familiar with colonization and the history of Zionist immigration to Palestine would immediately discern between the two, as Jews were not sent to Palestine by any metropole with the intent of ruling the population already there, exploiting their labor and stealing the natural resources. Indeed, Zionists represented anti-colonialism, as they arrived with a very strong work ethic of their own and a passion for renewing the land, in effect, adding considerably to the resources.

Studying Zionist leaders, such as Jabotinsky, Weizmann and Ben Gurion reveals their intent to avoid infringing on the Arab population, and, in fact, to live and work in peace and in cooperation with the Arabs. I'd recommend you do a bit of research into the subject matter on the Faisal-Weizmann Agreements for some much-needed enlightenment.

Israel isn't (and never was) a refuge for victims. It is meant as a positive demonstration that European Jews are just as capable of creating a nation-state as any other Europeans.

Nonsense. No further comment necessary.

Since the state couldn't be founded in Europe (all of which was claimed) it was founded where brown people lived (Europeans used to do that).

Well, there was that little thing about the 4,000-year connection between Jews and Palestine. But, who's counting?

Anyone with any depth of understanding knows that you can't say anything absolute about Israeli society. It's more fragmented than Lebanon. The idea that Jews are all pretty much alike simply because they're Jewish was always a nonsense.

Israel isn't just imperfect, it's unsustainable.

More nonsense. Churchill is not missing anything.

Italy and Greece are secular states, and are just what they are. One's in Italy, the other in Greece.

You evidently have not spent much time in either country. Clue for
you: The Vatican and Greek Orthodox Church are integral parts of every aspect of life in Italy and Greece, respectively.

What is a "Jewish State"? Is Jewish a religion, or a race? Are non-Jews allowed? Are they allowed but only as a minority? Who exactly is Jewish and who isn't?

More cluelessness.

Israel's ethos is demonstrated by its behaviour.

Meaningless prattle.

Military superiority is the foundation of Israeli society. The military and the arms industry are the backbone of Israeli society today.

As it should be. Having been attacked in three wars, and, today, surrounded by numerous terror factions, 22 hostile Arab states, 350 million hostile people, provides a cogent case for a strong military.

There's no reason for the Arab minority within Israel to leave having stuck it out for this long.

No insight whatsoever. Speak with Israeli Arabs, and, they concede they'd never want to live in an Arab country. They have it way too good in Israel.

Palestinians are just people. They aren't their regimes, they aren't their genetic heritage, they're just people. Each an individual, having to live with the Jewish State concept that really doesn't envision them being there.

Palestinians are just people...who have elected terrorists as their government. They knew what they were doing. They did not vote for Hamas to have their trash picked up on time. As for Israel not envisioning Palestinians there, you might want to edify yourself and read the PLO and Hamas charters to gain some much-needed insight into who doesn't want whom to live there. Israel has consistently supported Pal statehood. Problem is, the Pals do not want statehood. Too much work.

Palestinians - "Pals" - were people when they were ruled by Seljuks, and Ottomans, and Brits, and they lived with it.

You forgot the part where the Ottoman Turks conspired with the Arabs to dispossess the Bedouins of their land.

The Israelis uprooted them or planted their own state (and, hypothetically, religion) over them. You have to go back to the Crusader Kingdoms for that (and they didn't last).

Actually, no. There was no reason for Pals to be uprooted because of the simple, logical fact that Pals were offered their own state with UN Res. 181.

Israel was so easily provoked, just when Hezbullah was ready for them. They're ready for them again (which is one reason why Israeli posturing over Iran is such a joke). Hezbullah isn't a "terrorist group"; it's the state of South Lebanon. It made its name by being scrupulously honest, serving the people, and by driving the Israelis out in 2000.

Sorry, this makes no sense at all. I'm seeing a trend.

 

[Marc39]

They didn't create the Jewish State that stirred up so much antagonism.

Xenophobia is unacceptable and not to be tolerated. Not even by Arabs.

Maybe, after forty years, Israel can grant citizenship to the occupied Palestinians. A one-state solution.

Maybe after 60 years, the 22 members of the Arab League can finally offer them citizenship and repatriation, as Israel resettled the Jewish refugees. After all, it was the Arab states attacking Israel in 1948 that resulted in their displacement. People need to take responsibility for the consequences of their own actions. Even Arabs. It is not Israel's responsibility to resettle 4 million hostile Arabs who were born elsewhere

Why should Lebanon (a complicated state in the first place) be required to absorb this population deliberately driven across their border when Israel is not required to take them back? Your concern for Palestinians in Lebanon is pure hypocrisy.

You are confused. There are already 400,000 Pals in Lebanon, who live in refugee camps that make Gaza look like the South of France.

 

[SezMe]

You forgot Italy, France, Japan, the entiire League of Nations, US President Woodrow Wilson, both Houses of the US Congress, the UN, and, most importantly, God.

My bold, which defines why this is an intractable problem.

 

[Oliver]

Will Iran's 'Marriage Crisis' Bring Down Ahmadinejad?:

Why does this matter? Because Iran's government cannot afford to further alienate the young people that comprise more than 35% of its population. The young are already seething over their government's radical stance in the world and its trashing of the economy, and their anger easily expresses itself politically. As they decide how to vote in Friday's presidential election, young people like Farhad and Mahnaz are likely to base their decision in part on who they think will address the problem closest to their heart...

 

[geni]

I am frankly astonished that anyone with access to non-Iranian media could make such an embarrassingly ignorant statement. It's well known that Iran substantially supports proxies such as Hezbollah with money, material, and even personnel.

Perhaps you remember the cross border conflict between Israel and Lebanon from a couple of years ago? Regardless of who you believe the instigators to be, it can't be denied that Iran played a significant role in this conflict.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War

You forget how big the Iran-Iraq war was. In terms of manpower (very minimal) and money spent (not quite as minimal) iran's backing of Hezbollah was not so significant.

You could make a better case if you brought up Iran's more recent involvement with Iraq and the long standing risk of serious conflict with afganistan. Even there though the more recent involvement in Iraq has at most involved very small amounts of manpower and material.

 

[geni]

Maybe after 60 years, Lebanon can finally grant citizenship to the 400,000 Palestinians living in squalor in Lebanon, denied them, so they could qualify for employment and healthcare, and, drop the ban on employment in 70 different jobs.

Would make a complete mess of their internal ethnic ballance.

 

[Marc39]

Would make a complete mess of their internal ethnic ballance.

Perfect balance. Lebanese and Palestinians are both Arab.

 

[Marc39]

My bold, which defines why this is an intractable problem.

Not really, since both Jews and Arabs can live in Judea and Samaria.

 

[geni]

Perfect balance. Lebanese and Palestinians are both Arab.

Questionable and not the point. Palistians are islamic. Maronites are christian. Druze are dissputed.

 

[Marc39]

Questionable and not the point. Palistians are islamic. Maronites are christian. Druze are dissputed.

Palestinians are both Islamic and Christian, and, Lebanon has the largest Christian population in the region. And, if Israel can accommodate Arabs, Muslims, Christians, Druze and others, I'm confident "even" Lebanon can figure out how to live with Palestinians.

 

[Thunder]

Not really, since both Jews and Arabs can live in Judea and Samaria.

As citizens of Palestine. Yes.

 

[marksman]

Remember the antiquated leaders wheeled out by the Praesidium in its dying days? I predict something similar in Iran.

I doubt it. The Soviets inner council in the 1990's comprised solely of old-timers in their 80's who were veterans of WWII. This was a result of the paranoia instilled by Stalin after WWII, in which only those who risked everything defending the Russia were considered loyal enough.

The Guardian Council doesn't suffer that issue. They have been careful to promote younger members to the higher ranks based, primarily, on Islamic scholarship and political acumen. (The Supreme Council of the Revolution is even more diverse.) While the Supreme Leader, Ali Khameni is in his 70's, but he took over peacefully after Khomeini died more than a decade ago. Moreover, many members of the council are in their 50's and they grooming members of the Council in their 40's to move up in the ranks.

Iran is not going to follow the foolish mistakes of the Soviets. They are politically astute. Do not put your money on a Soviet-style collapse. Rather, the biggest likelihood is a gradual moderation as the Council is forced to make compromises in order to maintain some support among an increasingly liberal population. But things rarely work out when you have such a long-range timeframe.