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Afghanistan

Orphia Nay said:
China is actually fairly concerned about Islamic and military influence on the Uighur population in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) in far West China, which shares a border with Afghanistan, Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and India.
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The Chinese want some peace for their 're-education' schemes.
 
Darat said:
Doubt it - they'll do what they usually do import the needed experts and hire locals via the local "leaders". What you must bear in mind is that unlike the "western" countries China has no interest in the internal workings of a country (if it doesn't get in their way).
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Why is China building on uninhabited islands in SE Asia?
 
dellarte said:
Why is China building on uninhabited islands in SE Asia?
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What does that have to with what Darat is talking about, or the thread in general?

Don't get me wrong. I think it's an interesting subject, and worth discussing. But if you're genuinely curious, it's probably best if you start a separate thread for the separate topic.
 
Orphia Nay said:
Will China step in to develop its Belt and Road initiative, and to mine precious metals?
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China will so anything short of stopping persecution of Uighurs to get into Afghanistan. I'm not sure whether the beliefs of Uighurs match the insanity of the Taliban's, so it may not even be an issue.

Orphia Nay said:
What influence will Russia have?
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Logically, none. Their efforts in Afghanistan wouldn't be forgotten very easily, but if it suits Putin to give them weapons, there's a match available there.

Orphia Nay said:
How will the Taliban behave to the people of Afghanistan?
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Nicely, as long as they do what they're told.

Orphia Nay said:
What is happening there now?
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The usual - beheading, retribution, lies...
 
Ziggurat said:
I’m not so sure about that. The Taliban will likely accept Chinese money, but they might not give much of anything in return.
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Doubt it - Chian won't pay if it isn't getting what it wants.

"Hearts and minds" Chinese style is "If you want to keep your hearts, mind your own business".
 
Darat said:
Doubt it - Chian won't pay if it isn't getting what it wants.
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China won't keep paying after they're double-crossed. That doesn't mean they won't pay at all.

"Hearts and minds" Chinese style is "If you want to keep your hearts, mind your own business".
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The Taliban will not be afraid of China, not after they routed the Americans.

And really, what is China going to do to them? China is ruthless, sure, but they also have jack **** for power projection capabilities that would work here. They have plenty of troops, but very little air lift capacity, and roads into Afghanistan are terrible and vulnerable. Despite a shared border, I don't think there even are any roads between China and Afghanistan. They could likely get Tajikistan to help out, but that's still a really long supply line, and China's army is not built for long-distance deployment. And movement of resources within Afghanistan is still a problem, even with full cooperation from Tajikistan. Why would China have any better luck than the Soviets did? It's not like the Soviets failed because they were too nice.
 
Ziggurat said:
China won't keep paying after they're double-crossed. That doesn't mean they won't pay at all.



The Taliban will not be afraid of China, not after they routed the Americans.

And really, what is China going to do to them? China is ruthless, sure, but they also have jack **** for power projection capabilities that would work here. They have plenty of troops, but very little air lift capacity, and roads into Afghanistan are terrible and vulnerable. Despite a shared border, I don't think there even are any roads between China and Afghanistan. They could likely get Tajikistan to help out, but that's still a really long supply line, and China's army is not built for long-distance deployment. And movement of resources within Afghanistan is still a problem, even with full cooperation from Tajikistan. Why would China have any better luck than the Soviets did? It's not like the Soviets failed because they were too nice.
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.. You seem to be going along a strange path of thought, we were I thought discussing business/commercial agreement between Afghanistan and China not military action.
 
Darat said:
.. You seem to be going along a strange path of thought, we were I thought discussing business/commercial agreement between Afghanistan and China not military action.
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How exactly do you enforce a business agreement with someone like the Taliban? You can't impose sanctions or tariffs. You can't seize assets. You can stop paying them, but what do they care? They aren't in this for the money, they really are believers.

Enforcement of contracts is always ultimately about the threatened use of force. We're just used to scenarios where it never actually reaches that point, or if it does (ie, someone goes to prison for fraud), only one side is really capable of deploying it and so there's no real resistance. But the Taliban aren't like an ordinary company, or person, or country. Military action is always going to be a consideration when dealing with them, even about ostensibly non-military issues.
 
The Atheist said:
Here's an excellent piece on Afghanistan - containing the best cartoon on the subject you'll ever see - plus a warning that Somalia could be the next domino to fall.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/8/23/somalia-is-walking-in-afghanistans-footsteps
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That is a good article.

"“The Taliban are inheriting a different country than they left 20 years ago,” US Congressman Jake Auchincloss, a Marine veteran who led patrols through Afghanistan, said in a recent interview. “The literacy rate has doubled, the infant mortality rate has halved, access to electricity has tripled or quadrupled, there are ten times as many kids in school as there were 20 years ago, 40 percent of whom are girls. The Taliban are inheriting a country in which real progress has been made.”

"The question for Western policymakers should not just be whether, as Auchincloss asked, the Taliban will maintain this progress, but why, despite it, the country still fell."

I notice Al Jazeera has a main topic of Afghanistan in their menu bar.

Will Afghanistan trend towards being an Islamic state, in the main of the green crescent?

What role does Islam and superstition play in the fall of Afghanistan?

I imagine it plays a huge role. People don't say no to them if they are Muslim because the Taliban are holier than they.
 
Orphia Nay said:
That is a good article.

"“The Taliban are inheriting a different country than they left 20 years ago,” US Congressman Jake Auchincloss, a Marine veteran who led patrols through Afghanistan, said in a recent interview. “The literacy rate has doubled, the infant mortality rate has halved, access to electricity has tripled or quadrupled, there are ten times as many kids in school as there were 20 years ago, 40 percent of whom are girls. The Taliban are inheriting a country in which real progress has been made.”

"The question for Western policymakers should not just be whether, as Auchincloss asked, the Taliban will maintain this progress, but why, despite it, the country still fell."

I notice Al Jazeera has a main topic of Afghanistan in their menu bar.

Will Afghanistan trend towards being an Islamic state, in the main of the green crescent?

What role does Islam and superstition play in the fall of Afghanistan?

I imagine it plays a huge role. People don't say no to them if they are Muslim because the Taliban are holier than they.
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This - I'm wondering if the population of Afganistan actually want a democratic government, however incorrupt and inclusive. If they want to be ruled by their religion, I can't see anything stopping it.
 
Lplus said:
This - I'm wondering if the population of Afganistan actually want a democratic government, however incorrupt and inclusive. If they want to be ruled by their religion, I can't see anything stopping it.
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Outside the few "cosmopolitan" cities you are in a different world to what we are used to dealing with.

(Whilst I'll make the following comment of course it is not as simple as that and there is no totally accurate way of making a one to one comparison with any historic time.)

The society for most of the population is more akin to the age of the Barons in Europe, strong local leaders with the general population as serfs with only the rights granted by local leaders, with religion still playing a primary part in maintaining social cohesion.

This is why I've always said the approach to "nation building" in Afghanistan should have been an economic approach, develop a middle class if you want to see lasting change.
 
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Darat said:
This is why I've always said the approach to "nation building" in Afghanistan should have been an economic approach, develop a middle class if you want to see lasting change.
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I'm not sure your premise is right, because isn't building a middle class exactly what was attempted?

Sending their girls to school, being moderate on religion, playing cricket... aren't those kind of things the exact domain of the middle classes?

Problem is those middle classes aren't armed to the teeth, while the religious zealots are. An AK47 beats a textbook every time.
 
The Atheist said:
I'm not sure your premise is right, because isn't building a middle class exactly what was attempted?

Sending their girls to school, being moderate on religion, playing cricket... aren't those kind of things the exact domain of the middle classes?

Problem is those middle classes aren't armed to the teeth, while the religious zealots are. An AK47 beats a textbook every time.
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Painfully true.
Mao was a murdering bastard who is in the finals for "worst human being of all time" competion, but he but spoke the truth when he said

"In the end all political power comes from the mouth of a gun".
 
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