A Lucid Proposal For A Preliminary Test

That is an anti-social attitude. It's never polite to accuse someone of cheating, and if you must you ought to wait until you can prove it.
Of course it's not polite. It's not polite to suggest that someone is delusional either, but that is what you have done by assuming he will fail.
But what I meant was that simply discussing the ways in which it is possible to cheat, and ways to close those loopholes, will unavoidably imply suspicion. However, it does not amount to an accusation of cheating. MP understands this, as he pointed out in post #65.

People should not shy away from a frank discussion of those matters for fear of being seen as rude. Imagine how disappointing it would be if someone won the million by exploiting a loophole that nobody wanted to close out of fear of offending the claimant.
 
snip ...
FOR THE RECORD- My wife and I do not have any secret implants. We cannot count to keep track of the symbols. We have no way to communicate with each other. We can't use secret codes because we aren't talking during the test. We can be examined and scanned. We won't have any control of the participants or the venue. This is not part of a business venture.

We truly believe in our abilities and welcome further investigation.

Thanks for your candour and good humour in all of this.

Your checklist provides much food for thought -
most of those assumptions can be checked and validated;
whilst ommissions from the list can also be considered.

I just LOVE a good puzzle!
 
Of course it's not polite. It's not polite to suggest that someone is delusional either, but that is what you have done by assuming he will fail.
I have done no such thing.

But what I meant was that simply discussing the ways in which it is possible to cheat, and ways to close those loopholes, will unavoidably imply suspicion. However, it does not amount to an accusation of cheating. MP understands this, as he pointed out in post #65.

People should not shy away from a frank discussion of those matters for fear of being seen as rude. Imagine how disappointing it would be if someone won the million by exploiting a loophole that nobody wanted to close out of fear of offending the claimant.
Agree 100%, except the part about implying suspicion. It's standard protocol.
 
Of course it's not polite. It's not polite to suggest that someone is delusional either, but that is what you have done by assuming he will fail.
But what I meant was that simply discussing the ways in which it is possible to cheat, and ways to close those loopholes, will unavoidably imply suspicion. However, it does not amount to an accusation of cheating. MP understands this, as he pointed out in post #65.

People should not shy away from a frank discussion of those matters for fear of being seen as rude. Imagine how disappointing it would be if someone won the million by exploiting a loophole that nobody wanted to close out of fear of offending the claimant.

I have no fear of offending him. And I certainly have no intention of "going easy" on him. In fact, I would like him to to answer, directly, this question: CAN YOU PERFORM WITH FIXED TIME INTERVALS FOR EACH CARD, AND NO "SENDING" OR "RECEIVED" SIGNAL?

If he agrees to this, there is NO point in continuing the discussion about counting, since it is impossible.

I think the protocol should be tested, critically examined, and torn apart. I think that we should assume that any possibility for cheating at all makes the test invalid. However, there's a difference between doing that and saying "I've noticed that you can't answer the question 'Do you intend to cheat?' directly."

Skeptics shouldn't make unreasonable accusations with no evidence (For example, that MP was Drew Hempel.) In my view, the reason for this is simple. The JREF expects applicants to behave appropriately and reasonably- applicants that call the Challenge a sham and call Kramer or Randi a liar don't last very long, and with good reason. As long as the JREF acts honestly in its dealings (for example, by holding the million dollars and offering proof of its existence, having a third party observer conduct the test, and contractually agreeing to give up the money if the demonstration is successful), the applicant has no right to call the Challenge a sham.

However, the skeptics have a responsibility to act just as reasonably. As long as the protocol is airtight, the applicant works productively with the JREF, and there is no evidence that the applicant is anything but honest, we shouldn't imply he's cheating or lying.

That doesn't mean I believe him- I don't believe claims until there is evidence. However, the point of the Challenge is to test the claim, not to belittle applicants. Implications and unfounded accusations don't help test the claim, and they're not going to help expose flaws in the protocol. That's just my thoughts on the tone of this thread.

On the other side of this, Mental Professor, don't be so quick to say that if you suceeded in the Challenge, you wouldn't change anyone's mind. You'd be surprised at the effect real evidence has on rational people. Of course it would require more tests, but if ESP were actually demonstrated in a scientific test repeatedly, the general paridigm of scientific thought would certainly shift.

Anecdotal evidence, unsubstantiated claims, and cheap mumbo-jumbo don't change scientists' minds. Reality does. So let's see just how real these powers are.
 
Let's keep this mannered. Mental Professor and his wife seem genuinely curious about their supposed connection. Calling him a "fraud" if it turns out to be nonsubstantial is out of line, as he isn't pandering anything to the public. I also can't imagine a better claimant - of all the loons the JREF deals with on a weekly basis, one reasonable, clear man and his wife of 17 years cutely step up to the plate and take the million.

Best of luck to you both! Given an airtight protocol, I'm sure a lot of us will be crossing our fingers. :)
 
I have no fear of offending him. And I certainly have no intention of "going easy" on him. In fact, I would like him to to answer, directly, this question: CAN YOU PERFORM WITH FIXED TIME INTERVALS FOR EACH CARD, AND NO "SENDING" OR "RECEIVED" SIGNAL?

If he agrees to this, there is NO point in continuing the discussion about counting, since it is impossible.
If there is an uncertainty about exactly how long it can take to receive a message, I think having a "received" signal should be OK as long as it is stipulated that the next card will start to be "sent" a fixed period after the "received" signal; this only involves information going from the receiver to the sender. So the test could be run like this:

Test starts. Sender starts sending first card. When the receiver thinks they have received the first card they note what they have received and the "received" signal is given. After whatever interval has been determined, say for the sake of arguiment five minutes (this can be agreed in advance depending on how long the participants feel they need to rest between cards) the sender starts sending the second card, and so on.

If the interval between the "received" signal and the next card being sent is fixed, there is no way it can be used to send coded signals via counting, and no need for a "sending" message; the receiver knows that the next card will start to be sent five minutes (or whatever period has been agreed) after the "received" signal.
 
First, just gotta say I'm really enjoying this discussion. It's a joy to read a thread started by a logical, reasonable, articulate candidate. Thank you, professor!

From the original proposal:

Upon receiving her thought, I will write the symbol down and the fifth observer will then radio back “received” to the fourth observer. The process will then repeat itself for a total of ten (10) times to use all of the symbols in the envelope.

7. Upon completion of the test, the sent and received symbols will be compared. All of the symbols and envelopes can be examined to verify that there were no more than fifty (50) symbols and that there were ten (10) copies of each.

(snip)

No observer that is witnessing the symbols being revealed should be in contact with an observer that is witnessing the reception of the symbols. I would like to preserve the sterility of the testing procedures so that there can be no claim of collusion. I understood that results were compared after 3 attempts in the Achau Nguyen test, but I ask that no contact be made with the sets of observers until after the full test has been completed.

I may have overlooked where this was addressed previously in the thread, but has there been any discussion about the first sentence quoted above?

The professor has requested that the sending witnesses not communicate with the receiving witnesses during the sending/receiving period. However, will there be a definite video/witness record of each of the professor's written answers as it's made, to prove what symbol he wrote down to correspond with each symbol being sent?

This would prevent anyone from claiming that he somehow discovered the symbols being sent at the end of the test, when communication between the two rooms opened up again, and managed to change his answers after the sending/receiving period, but before they were judged.
 
First, just gotta say I'm really enjoying this discussion. It's a joy to read a thread started by a logical, reasonable, articulate candidate. Thank you, professor!

From the original proposal:



I may have overlooked where this was addressed previously in the thread, but has there been any discussion about the first sentence quoted above?

The professor has requested that the sending witnesses not communicate with the receiving witnesses during the sending/receiving period. However, will there be a definite video/witness record of each of the professor's written answers as it's made, to prove what symbol he wrote down to correspond with each symbol being sent?

This would prevent anyone from claiming that he somehow discovered the symbols being sent at the end of the test, when communication between the two rooms opened up again, and managed to change his answers after the sending/receiving period, but before they were judged.

In a typical protocol, a witness in the sending room would record each symbol as it is revealed, and a witness in the receiving room would record each symbol that Mental Professor marks down, as that is done. So, the answer to your question is, yes.
 
For curiosity, Drew (MP) (sounds good, doesn't it ;)), have you already included the affidavits in your application, or will you have to spend time hunting those when your claim is received?
 
For curiosity, Drew (MP) (sounds good, doesn't it ;)), have you already included the affidavits in your application, or will you have to spend time hunting those when your claim is received?

I would think it yet a bit presumpt...presu...early to be sending affidavits in the initial correspondence. At the very least I would think it good form to discuss intended affidavit signers before submitting such, and then only if requested.
 
I never saw Kramer negotiating the affidavit signees before it happened. He just demanded affidavits, and told who would be acceptable, and I believe he rejected a few affidavits after having received them because they had not been signed by the right people. In fact, I think he only ever received a few affidavits, because this demand was always a show stopper.
 
Perhaps M. Professor could get the affadavits in case he needed them, but not send them until requested?
M. Professor -- what's the longest time that you'd normally need to send a symbol? Perhaps you could just have fixed intervals of that time.
 
You can't very well engage in that process without at least implying that the claimant might be planning to cheat.
ImOne answered that very nicely. In my own question to him I suggested he might have found a way to cheat that is unique, interesting, and unconcscious.

Bear in mind also that nobody has ever given a successful demonstration of paranormal abilities to an audience of skeptics without later being discovered as a fraud.
I am extremely well aware of that. My point is that this is the first time I have ever seen someone propose to give a demonstration in a lucid and rational way. All the rest of them are gibbering lunatics.

It's MP's sheer reasonableness that I think deserves to be respected. He sounds like someone who is rational, just wrong. It does us no harm - and potentially much good - to act as if this is the case.

After this demonstration fails, MP might actually be willing to consider that he was wrong. And the kind of treatment he recieves from us now might have some emotional impact on how he deals with that knowledge.

We can hope that Mental Professor will not follow in their footsteps, but it is not unreasonable to expect that he will.
Not at all unreasonable - just unnecessary. At this point.

When I watch cop shows, I always wonder why the cops are a little more polite when they are arresting the prime suspect. Don't they know they are on TV, there is 30 minutes left in the episode, and therefore they almost certainly have the wrong guy? And of course you never see them apologize for arresting and verbally abusing the wrong guy. (Well, once I did see that). You can imagine the experience doesn't leave a lot of good will on the part of the victim - which is bad, because the system is absolutely necessary and needs everyone's support.

I can understand a police officer saying, "We have strong evidence that you did it, so we have to arrest you." I can forgive him for doing his job. But convicting me before the trial, calling me a scumbag, bouncing my head off the squad car as he puts me in because he thinks he's got a real Bad Guy? That's not acceptable, necessary, or helpful.

We don't have to assume MP is dishonest, even while we explain to him the necessity of making sure dishonesty is impossible. We can appreciate his rational and polite discourse without conceeding his claim. We can be friendly with someone who has not yet irrevocably branded themselves as the enemy of all light and truth.

How do you know you can trust someone? Because they trust you. I know it is expensive and difficult to keep being the ones who first offer the olive branch of trust, and keep getting smacked with it; but that's our job, as skeptics, as "brights," as decent human beings.

Of course it's not polite. It's not polite to suggest that someone is delusional either, but that is what you have done by assuming he will fail.
But if you have noticed, MP has taken our polite suggestions that he is delusional in a polite way. He understands we think he is delusional, and he can talk rationally about the possibility. All I am asking for is that we can do the same, without becoming unduly viscious.

But what I meant was that simply discussing the ways in which it is possible to cheat, and ways to close those loopholes, will unavoidably imply suspicion.
Not necessarily. MP can understand we have to protect ourselves from others without necessarily infering we are protecting ourself from him.

Indeed, his willingness to accept the need for this protocol is the best possible proof that he actually believes what he says.

He is acting rationally. Whether he is or not, it behooves us to act rationally too. We can up-front state that we are certain he is wrong, and even that he is "cheating" in some unconscious way, without accusing him of conspiracy to commit theft.

But I see SirPhillip has covered all this in many fewer sentences.
 
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Most people will not change their beliefs either way.
You've made a bit of an error here.

It is true that the woos will not stop believing in woo, regardless of the evidence - if you pass or fail will not matter in the least to them.

But it is not true that the world of science, reason, and logic is indifferent to evidence. While scientists are human beings, and subject to all the same biases as anyone else, the system of science rewards those who prove everybody else wrong. Scientist's natural human inclination to be rewarded exceeds (on average) their natural human inclination to not have to change their mind.

If you pass this first test, you will attract the attention of Randi himself. A man who has just been reminded of his mortality. He will want to leave a mark in the world before he goes, and he would find the notion that there was more to humanity mind than just body remarkably comforting, so he would no doubt love to give you the money as his final act on this stage. (After all, it's not even his million dollars!) And remember that no one has ever passed the preliminary test. So when he tests you for the prize, he will be very, very motivated for something special to happen. He will make sure the test is air-tight, so that if it does, he can club all his fellow skeptics with it.

And the scientific world would love a new puzzle. We're down to measuring morality in monkeys; showing psychic powers would be more interesting than splitting the atom.

In religion, you get rewarded for confirming what people already know. In science, it's the opposite.

I think that even if Randi had paid the claimant, most people would still believe that it was a hoax.
But a few more tests, and they would start believing. You may have to perform this demonstration in controlled settings ten or twenty times before scientists all over the world are fully convinced.

What if Mr. Nguyen, along with his associate had a special chip implanted in their heads that was undetectable, but allowed them to communicate.
1. Yes, it would be cheating, because it would not be "paranormal."

2. An undetectable chip with those capabilties would be worth far more than a million dollars!

We truly believe in our abilities and welcome further investigation.
Have you honestly considered the ramifications of failure? If you fail, will you still believe? If Randi points out to you the unconscious but thouroughly mundane way in which you have been performing this feat, will you accept the truth?

We are prepared to change our minds based on the evidence (all the testiness you see in this thread is in fact proof of that, however unlikely that might seem). Are you prepared to change your mind based on evidence, too?
 
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To put things in perspective: My job is extracting signal from noise. I can take a web-cam and use it to detect a missing layer of molecules.

Give me a psi-effect strong enough that a pair of amatuers can detect it, and I will conquer the world.
 
Self Test Strongly Recommended

Mental Professor:

Randi has the following paragraph at the end of his Challenge Application Page:

Please be advised that several applicants have suffered great personal embarrassment after failing these tests. I strongly advise you to conduct proper double-blind tests of any ability you believe you can demonstrate, before attempting to undergo a testing for this prize. This has saved many applicants much time and work, by showing that the powers were quite imaginary on the part of the would-be claimant. Please do this, and do not choose to ignore the need for such a precaution. This advice is offered only so that the applicant might be spared these problems. -- James Randi

In that spirit I suggest a test you and your wife can perform alone (to avoid embarassment in case you fail) that should be quite effective to determine if you really do have the power you believe you have.

The details of the test I am proposing are not meant to dictate but are only offered as examples to illustrate the concepts.

1) Choose separate sending and receiving rooms in your home that are far enough apart to assure that almost no sounds or voices will not be exchanged.

2) Prepare a method of binary signalling between the rooms so that a "sending" and "received" message may be sent without allowing any subtleties to be exchanged. A loud bell, knock on a pipe, or police whistle might do. A ring between cell phones (enough to display caller ID) could be ideal.

3) Blind shuffle a deck of Zener cards. Agree on the number of cards that will be sent. Hand the cards to your wife, who will take them to the sending room while you wait in the receiving room.

4) Have your wife issue a "sending" signal each time she sends a card, at which point she will write down the symbol of the card.

5) When you receive the symbol, write it down and send the "received" signal to your wife.

6) Repeat until the agreed upon number of cards is sent, then get together and compare results.

I can understand how one would be hesitant to perform a rigorous test on one's self. I've been there. But, compare the private embarassement the two of you might experience with the public embarassment of failing the JREF Challenge, and it should be clear what is preferable.

Please share with the forum the details and results of such a practice test as soon as you can. If you decline to do this, we would very much like to know why.
 
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All this talk of protocol when the application itself will never be accepted in its current form. The professor said he added his own wording to the challenge rules and submitted this as part of his application. I believe, until this wording is removed, the app. will be rejected.
 
All this talk of protocol when the application itself will never be accepted in its current form. The professor said he added his own wording to the challenge rules and submitted this as part of his application. I believe, until this wording is removed, the app. will be rejected.

That's right. From Challenge Rules FAQ:

2.7. I disagree with a rule, or if I strongly feel that a rule shouldn't apply in my case, how do I go about changing it or getting it waived?

You don't. The Challenge rules will not be changed for you.

You can ask to get a rule changed, but you should expect to have your request rejected, and you should not expect the JREF to engage you in a debate over such matters.
 
All this talk of protocol when the application itself will never be accepted in its current form. The professor said he added his own wording to the challenge rules and submitted this as part of his application. I believe, until this wording is removed, the app. will be rejected.

That was part of my warning that the matter be hilighted in the initial contact. I believe it possible that they would accept this added declaration of limited liability on the part of the applicant.

Or, they might indeed reject it, though I expect they would cite specific situations where JREF would like to reserve the right for legal action and give the applicant the opportunity to modify the clause to allow for such.
 

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