4th August - epilogue - 19th September - prediction

Chad Noles said:
Your so called premonition was obviously wrong.If you had had an actual premonition, it would have been about how the planned attack was twarted.Maybe someday people will figure this out.
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Nah, it doesn't work like that.
 
Interesting Ian said:
Besides, the evidence suggests that when people do, say, dream of a future event, they can take actions to prevent it happening; especially so if it is an event which would have happened to them.
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So when dreams/predictions/whatever come true it's evidence that precognition exists, and when they fail to come true it's evidence that psychic powers influence future events. Nice.
 
Re: Re: Re: 4th August - epilogue - 19th September - prediction

Lucianarchy said:
Correct. The unprecedented heightened security over the last few days has undoubtably been good for the protection against such attacks.

... <more senseless drivel>...
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Good for pretection equals bad for prediction.

You must be conflicted. I predict your head will explode in a flurry of cognitive dissonance. Seek protection by taking your lithium.
 
Interesting Ian said:
Far be it for me to defend silly predictions, but you're being ludicrous here. Are you actually suggesting that the future is laid down and that there is nothing we can do to prevent it happening?
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I don't know if the future is fixed or not, but isn't that exactly what people who "see the future" are claiming? If not, how is "seeing the future" any different from simply imagining the possibility of a future event? If the future is not fixed, what exactly are people like Luci "seeing"?
Besides, the evidence suggests that when people do, say, dream of a future event, they can take actions to prevent it happening; especially so if it is an event which would have happened to them.
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I suspect this is one of those situations where, should the future come close to what they "saw", they remember the hits and forget misses, or rationalize them into "near-hits" as Luci has done here. Do you have a source for this evidence and does it only consider "near-hits" or does also take solid misses into account too?

edited: I'd also be interested in how they distinguish between near-hits and full misses.
 
Luci, by your logic you can't lose. If something had happened you wouold count yourself as being right (obviously) but when nothing happened you claim that something was GOING to happen but was prevented, and still claim yourself as being right.

Do you see the problem here? Can you accept the possibility that you may have been just plain wrong?
 
Upchurch said:
I'd also be interested in how they distinguish between near-hits and full misses.
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There are no full misses. If reality appears to deviate from prediction, it's because secret government agents took action based on the information in the prediction.
 
Let me try something:

"I believe that on Friday, August 6, 2004, a member of this board, or someone known by a member of this board, will be in an unfortunate incident involving a car. So, please tell everyone you know to be careful tomorrow and be careful yourself."

Now, how can this "prediction" possibly go wrong? Given the large number of people who are members of this board and, further, the number of people known by members of this board, the odds against "an unfortunate incident involving a car" (a common event) are probably insignificant.

Still further, I didn't specify what incident would occur, only that it would involve a car and it would be unfortunate. That could range from stubbing your toe in a parking lot to having a major multi-car pile up. Heck, spilling your soda during an exciting car chase in a movie would work.

And if none of that happens to anyone in our massive pool of people, it's because I warned them in time?

Now, how do you distinguish my prediction (which I absolutely concocted solely from my own imagination) from something like Luci's premonition?
 
Upchurch said:
Let me try something:

"I believe that on Friday, August 6, 2004, a member of this board, or someone known by a member of this board, will be in an unfortunate incident involving a car. So, please tell everyone you know to be careful tomorrow and be careful yourself."

Now, how can this "prediction" possibly go wrong? Given the large number of people who are members of this board and, further, the number of people known by members of this board, the odds against "an unfortunate incident involving a car" (a common event) are probably insignificant.

Still further, I didn't specify what incident would occur, only that it would involve a car and it would be unfortunate. That could range from stubbing your toe in a parking lot to having a major multi-car pile up. Heck, spilling your soda during an exciting car chase in a movie would work.

And if none of that happens to anyone in our massive pool of people, it's because I warned them in time?

Now, how do you distinguish my prediction (which I absolutely concocted solely from my own imagination) from something like Luci's premonition?
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You can't. But it sounds like an interesting experiment and may I humbly suggest you make a new thread with your "prediction" and see how many people chime in over the weekend and give you "hits".
 
WTF are you, Luci, A FREAKING IDIOT?!!?!

You predicted something horrible to happen, and it did not happen. Then you say it's because of heightened security. Well, anal-funk, why did you not predict the heightened security as well?! If you truly had predictive powers, you would not have made this prediction at all and instead made the prediction "attack is planned but none will happen because of heightened security". You only prove yourself to be a freaking moron with threads like this, Luci.

Maybe you are implying that protective agencies heightened security based on your "prediction". If so, do you have evidence to support this statement? I seriously doubt that the FBI, CIA or any other agency monitors your idiotic and vague predictions as a source of intelligence. Your predictions are more a source of stupidity.
 
Temper, temper.

Lucianarchy is not an idiot. He is just not all there. Or here.
 
Luci is not only an idiot, but insanely deluded and a worthless piece of garbage posing as a man.
 
I think a few of you are getting a little hysterical about all this.

I predicted that an attack by terrorists against Western targets was being planned for the 4th August.

Due to the action of the intelligence community, and everyone knows the positive action of heightened state of alert which was imposed over the 4th, such an attack would have been foiled.

Therefore, the evidence from the intelligence community suggests that such an attack was immenent, and, thank Gaia, they took the appropriate action to stop it.

Had they been as skeptical as some of the cynics here, perhaps we would be many lives short today. Thankfully, they are not cynics.
 
You are a LIAR, Luci. There was no "heightened state" of security due to your "prediction". You have no ties with the intelligence community. You are a fool.
 
Lucianarchy said:
I think a few of you are getting a little hysterical about all this.

I predicted that an attack by terrorists against Western targets was being planned for the 4th August.

Due to the action of the intelligence community, and everyone knows the positive action of heightened state of alert which was imposed over the 4th, such an attack would have been foiled.

Therefore, the evidence from the intelligence community suggests that such an attack was immenent, and, thank Gaia, they took the appropriate action to stop it.

Had they been as skeptical as some of the cynics here, perhaps we would be many lives short today. Thankfully, they are not cynics.
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Let me get this crystal clear, Lucianarchy:

Do you think that your prediction came true, yes or no?
 
A guy stabbed a doorman at a "western" hospital in Beijing that day. If the police had not of stopped him, maybe he would've killed over 90 people that day. Why aren't you taking credit for this "event" as well, Luci?
 
Lucianarchy said:
I think a few of you are getting a little hysterical about all this.

I predicted that an attack by terrorists against Western targets was being planned for the 4th August.

Due to the action of the intelligence community, and everyone knows the positive action of heightened state of alert which was imposed over the 4th, such an attack would have been foiled.

Therefore, the evidence from the intelligence community suggests that such an attack was immenent, and, thank Gaia, they took the appropriate action to stop it.

Had they been as skeptical as some of the cynics here, perhaps we would be many lives short today. Thankfully, they are not cynics.
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Very slippery. No, you didn't predict something was "being planned." Here's the prediction:
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).
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ken, please calm down.

Luci, he has a point however. It is highly unlikely that the federal goverment reviews the JREF website looking for hints to the next terrorist attack (let alone the British goverment). How would you account for the fact that your predicted event did not come to pass given that you did not interfere with the proceedings in any way?
 
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