4th August - epilogue - 19th September - prediction

scratchy said:
Under gunthreat from MI5, who just smashed his door, maybe?
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That would explain his silence / absence...

Oh noz! M15, the CIA, Mossad, the KGB are onto us!!!!!!
 
Doom III is more significant than this "prediction" of yours, Luci. Actually, klingons in my shorts are more significant. Go seek therapy, Luci, because you are insane.
 
I need to ask a question.

I dont know if this has been addressed elswewhere, if it has, I am too lazy right now to searh for it. :D

Lets say one of these jokers maks a prediction, ie, "there will be an attack this day, blah blah blah blah".

And it happens.

Could said joker be prosecuted as an accomplice?

In the eyes of the law, how else could said joker have known that there would be attacks that day, unless they were in on it....

Just a thought.

(edit to fix spelling error)
 
No No Luci is not insane, he's just a firm and convinced believer in the occult. I use to be that as well, until I realised that there are NOTHING THERE, no magic, no psi, no Lemuria, Atlantis, or Mu, no gods or daemons.

The realisation will come to Luci eventually, just wait....a looooong time....
 
Cthulhu said:
I need to ask a question.

I dont know if this has been addressed elswewhere, if it has, I am too lazy right now to searh for it. :D

Lets say one of these jokers maks a prediction, ie, "there will be an attack this day, blah blah blah blah".

And it happens.

Could said joker be prosecuted as an accomplice?

In the eyes of the law, how else could said joker have known that there would be attacks that day, unless they were in on it....

Just a thought.

(edit to fix spelling error)
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Well, i think there are so many predictions out there that there is a hit for any given day. So there's probably no risk for that to happen, unless a successfull prediction is very specific.
 
scratchy said:
Well, i think there are so many predictions out there that there is a hit for any given day. So its probably no risk for that to happen, unless a successfull prediction is very specific.
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Ahh..you know, I hadn't thought of that.

They are never specific, and one joker amongst many, it is nearly impossible to pick him out. :D
 
If only self-deception was painful..... then maybe this arse-lick called Luci would feel enough pain to stop with it.
 
thaiboxerken said:
If only self-deception was painful..... then maybe this arse-lick called Luci would feel enough pain to stop with it.
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Ken, please stop with the crudeness. It neither constructive nor necessary.
 
thaiboxerken said:
If only self-deception was painful..... then maybe this arse-lick called Luci would feel enough pain to stop with it.
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Instead self deception is the painkiller allways at hand.
 
Actually,Cthulhu in the eyes of the law there would have to be some connection to the perpetrators of whatever it was that happened.If there wasn't any sort of physical link,be it meetings,emails,phone calls,etc. it would be hard to show beyond a reasonable doubt that the two parties were involved with one another.
 
Feels like the battle over this prediction is over for now, and we're just scavenging the fields. The unsinkable has sunk, or maybe he just sneaked away to alert the psychic cavallrybrigades?
 
Lucianarchy said:
I think you would be surprised about how the FBI/CIA/MI5 gain some of their intelligence.
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I have seen thieves that start heistating just after a robbery and then break into a house *again* to return the loot.

So here's my theory:

Lucianarchy is a terrorist (as previously proposed in the Ladybrook thread and now by Cthulhu) involved in the organization of such attacks. However, he has a burning feeling of guilt and a dilemma, so he makes predictions and then "spills the beans" to the police every once in a while, so he can fight for
the cause and still be the good guy, instead of a despicable killer. :rolleyes:
 
Upchurch said:
Ken, please stop with the crudeness. It neither constructive nor necessary.
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Is it necessary or constructive to make predictions on a forum and then claim victory when they don't come true?
 
thaiboxerken said:
Is it necessary or constructive to make predictions on a forum and then claim victory when they don't come true?
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I'd say a great many people have benefitted from the analysis of this particular example. Hey, I plan to use it in my classes...

Luci already looks silly enough after this failed prediction and ridiculous dance. Too much crudity could give him some sympathy (poor, abused Luci!). I'd just as soon let his words and actions speak for him--they do so much more eloquently than insults could hope to.
 
Luci started a new thread to explain it/her's "victory"... rather than include it in the volumes of posts predicting/documenting failure... wonder why?

Well, it's still time for a victory lap... where ever she/it runs...






I just wanted to gloat....

Luci was WRAU-ONG!!! WRONG! WRONG! R-R-R-RAW...AUNG!!! WRONG! MissTook'n FALSCH!!! B-z-z-z-z-z Wrongaroni and Wrongaroo G-O-N-G-G - G - G !!!!! :D Hit the Road, Jack... an' don't come back, nomore no more no MORE, NO More!!!! Luci was WRAU-ONG!!! WRONG! WRONG! R-R-R-RAW...AUNG!!! WRONG! MissTook'n FALSCH!!! B-z-z-z-z-z Wrongaroni and Wrongaroo G-O-N-G-G - G - G !!!!! Hit the Road, Jack... an' don't come back, nomore no more no MORE, NO More!!!! Luci was WRAU-ONG!!! WRONG! WRONG! R-R-R-RAW...AUNG!!! :cool: WRONG! MissTook'n FALSCH!!! B-z-z-z-z-z Wrongaroni and Wrongaroo G-O-N-G-G - G - G !!!!! Hit the Road, Jack... an' don't come back, nomore no more no MORE, NO More!!!! Luci was WRAU-ONG!!! WRONG! WRONG! R-R-R-RAW...AUNG!!! WRONG! MissTook'n FALSCH!!! B-z-z-z-z-z Wrongaroni and Wrongaroo G-O-N-G-G - G - G !!!!! Hit the Road, Jack... an' don't come back, nomore no more no MORE, NO More!!!! Luci was WRAU-ONG!!! WRONG! WRONG! R-R-R-RAW...AUNG!!! WRONG! MissTook'n FALSCH!!! B-z-z-z-z-z Wrongaroni and Wrongaroo G-O-N-G-G - G - G !!!!! Hit the Road, Jack... an' don't come back, nomore no more no MORE, NO More!!!! Luci was WRAU-ONG!!! WRONG! WRONG! R-R-R-RAW...AUNG!!! WRONG! MissTook'n FALSCH!!! B-z-z-z-z-z Wrongaroni and Wrongaroo G-O-N-G-G - G - G !!!!! :D Hit the Road, Jack... an' don't come back, nomore no more no MORE, NO More!!!!



Sometimes you just need to take a moment...
sit back....
and enjoy the superior feeling that comes from rejecting the "woo"
 
Hi Luci.

I am sure that right now you must feel relieved that you were wrong and your "prediction" wasn't right. I suggest --in an honestly friendly manner-- that you stop posting those predictions without being more specific because even if you have a case ( to be honest with you I believe that you don't have any case) you just lose it.
 
Cleopatra said:
I am sure that right now you must feel relieved that you were wrong and your "prediction" wasn't right. I suggest --in an honestly friendly manner-- that you stop posting those predictions without being more specific because even if you have a case ( to be honest with you I believe that you don't have any case) you just lose it.
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In more ways than one, yes.

But no, I disagree. Lucianarchy should post his predictions. In fact, it's the only course of action he can take. How else is he going to maintain the illusion that he has paranormal powers?

How else is he going to justify that he is alive?
 
insignificance

Upchurch said:
Let me try something:

"I believe that on Friday, August 6, 2004, a member of this board, or someone known by a member of this board, will be in an unfortunate incident involving a car. So, please tell everyone you know to be careful tomorrow and be careful yourself."

Now, how can this "prediction" possibly go wrong? Given the large number of people who are members of this board and, further, the number of people known by members of this board, the odds against "an unfortunate incident involving a car" (a common event) are probably insignificant.
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Upchurch, you mean insubstantial, not insignificant. Significance is a measure of the distinctness of two statistics, not of their magnitude. Suppose I say that the high temp measured Friday off the Oceanside pier will be 75 degrees plus or minus 1. Now if it turns out to be 77, that's significant, because I specified that my confidence interval was 74-76. But it's insubstantial, since you wear the same clothes and play the same games at 75 or 77.

Is that clear? What's more clear is why James insists on tests that don't require statistical analysis for judging.

The rule of thumb is don't use the word "significant" or any derivative when talking about measurement or probability, unless you really mean it. (And even then.)
 
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