4th August - epilogue - 19th September - prediction

Well, I have figured out Lucianarchy's scoring system. There are four levels: Hit, significant, not significant, miss. I have not seen Lucianarchy ever mention the miss category, but I assume it must exist, otherwise the term "hit" becomes meaningless.

Applied to the recent situation, they work like this:

Hit: Something awful happened to a Western taget on Aug. 4th.

Significant: Theoretically, something awful COULD have happened to a Western target on Aug. 4th.

Not significant: It was unthinkable that something even remotely awful could have happened to a Western target on Aug. 4th.

Miss: It turned out that there was no Aug. 4th in this year's calendar.


Hans :rolleyes:
 
[off topic]
4th August 2004 was the 100th anniversary of my father's birth. (Yes I was a very late child, don't start....)
[/off topic]

Rolfe.
 
Rolfe said:
[off topic]
4th August 2004 was the 100th anniversary of my father's birth. (Yes I was a very late child, don't start....)
[/off topic]

Rolfe.
Well, quite frankly, in spite of everything ;), that hardly qualifies as "something awful happening to a Western target"?

Hans :D
 
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).
Did an attack on a Western Target occur? No
Cleopatra: For the sake of people you must give it another try and be more specific.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Luci : I wish I could, Cleopatra. However, I can only report what I percieve.
So his original prediction was all the information he could give. Until...
I understand, but I can only provide what I percieve. The 'awful' aspect of the perception seemed to project over 100 casualties (death or serious injury). I really hope I am wrong. But the perception was strong.
Suddenly more information came up. "Over 100 casualties". This is something easily measured. Though still very vague.
I have already said that the perceptions are often vague, it is the fact that significant repeated correlations occur over time that warrant the recording. To juts have one correlation is perhaps lucky. But I have been able to do this over many occasions.
You heard it here first, he's been able to predict events like the one that failed to happen on Aug 4th "over many occasions".
I accept you may see that as 'vague'. But attacks with over 100 casualties like that are not, thankfully, every day events.
Nor were they the events of yesterday.
I perceive a Western target as one controlled / operated / symbolic of the Western forces of power - armed / industrial / social.
Which is just about everywhere, with the possible possible exception of the moon.
Thankfully, the CIA, FBI, DIA, MI5 etc pre-empted any attack planned for the 4th August with the unprecedented heightened security on major Western targets.
I've searched the news and have yet to mind any mention of "any attack planned for the 4th August". Nor do I find the "heightened security" to be "unprecedented". Unprecedented would be if we had this type of security before 9/11. What we have right now is on par with the threat level.
In addition, on the 4th August, MI5 managed to arrest up to 12 terrorists in the UK who were planning an attack on Heathrow.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/ "more from the UK: doubt over airport 'terror plot'"
They are not claiming the caught the suspects in the act of committing an attack. If they did I'm sure it would be front-page news. They said he was planning an attack.
Like the 'Ladybrook' perception, it seems that attacks may not necessarily take place
Allot of things "may not necessarily take place". Forgive me for not being impressed.
they may be thwarted either by intelligence tip-offs, or other action taken between the time of perception and the planned time of the attack
Even if someone did tip them off, there would be nothing they could do based on your prophecy. Do you think they read your post and immediately scrambled to send as many men they could to every potential "Western Target" they could think of?
Obviously, the intelligence reports from the major agencies have proved that attacks were planned for this time,
Nope reread the BBC news. They were not "planned for this time", they were, if anything, planning at that time.
I have percieved 19th September as another high risk window for similar attacks and hope and pray that the intelligence agancies agian act to thwart such an attack.
THERE WAS NO ATTACK! Are you saying that on Sept 19th there won't be an attack again?
The unprecedented heightened security over the last few days has undoubtably been good for the protection against such attacks. The UK arrests foiled at least one attempt. The heightened security in the US and elsewhere would have undoubtable thwarted any other attacks planned for this time.

Everyone know that security has been drastically heightened this week as a result of the intelligence community working together.
Shouldn't your prediction have taken into account the "unprecedented heightened security over the last few days". It was not a result of you prediction, and hence should have been easily foreseen in your prediction.
If the CIA. FBI, DIA, MI5 etc had not enforced heightened security on western targets over this time, then that would suggest that an attack by terrorists against a western target was not a risk.
Of course its a risk. It’s been a risk for a long time. It will be a risk for a long time to come. I predict they will probably heighten security just about every time they get info of a threat. Not info from some lunatic on a web site, but from real intelligence like they did in this case.
Due to the action of the intelligence community, and everyone knows the positive action of heightened state of alert which was imposed over the 4th, such an attack would have been foiled.
There was no more a heightened state of alert on the 4th than there was on the 3rd, and no more than there is today.
think you would be surprised about how the FBI/CIA/MI5 gain some of their intelligence.
If they get it from crackpots posting rumors on web sites than I'm moving to Canada.
 
Just felt like doing a Greatest Hits collection of Luci's Aug 4th prediction. Though I guess in her case its more of a Greatest Misses. I've left out her rants on the Iraq poilice station attack. Huntsman responded to them better than I can. I also left out her stuff about the prediction being "self evident", I still have no idea what she was talking about. Best I could tell it ment that since she believes it, it must be true.
 
I wish Luci logic worked in the casinos. If I were playing roulette and my number comes up I win, if it doesn't come up I win anyway because it clearly WOULD have come up but something happened to change it. I'd be a rich, rich man.
 
Posted by Lucianarchy

The intelligence agencies have shown that they are prepared and will act on information given to them.

Will you be informing them of your 19th Sept. concerns?

Did you inform them of your 4th Aug. prediction?
 
Lucianarchy said:
Thankfully, the CIA, FBI, DIA, MI5 etc pre-empted any attack planned for the 4th August with the unprecedented heightened security on major Western targets.

How exactly are the CIA, FBI, DIA, MI5, etc. supposed to use intelligence so vague as to be only a date, not even a location or a name?
"Hey, how about we all do what we do every day of the year and watch for possible terrorist activity all over the world?"

I join the crowd that thinks Lucianarchy is delusional.
 
Sad

Lucianarchy said:
You are welcome to your opinion, Flo.

But the fact is, there was an extremely high security alert enforced through the intelligence agancies over that period. Ergo, a high risk of attack against western targets by terrorists existed.

Thankfully, such action on intelligence would have foiled any planned attack.

Very sad indeed. Bordering on the pathetic.
 
lofgoernost said:
Will you be informing them of your 19th Sept. concerns?

Did you inform them of your 4th Aug. prediction?


[Lucianarchy voice]

You and I both know the answer to that. :rolleyes:

[/Lucianarchy voice]
 
Lucianarchy said:

I have percieved 19th September as another high risk window for similar attacks and hope and pray that the intelligence agancies agian act to thwart such an attack.

I have the same issue with this "prediction" as I had with the previous one. It's too vague.
Everyone here can replicate your so-called prognostications without psychic powers. Why should we believe yours are genuine?
 
Operaider said:
Did an attack on a Western Target occur? NoSo his original prediction was all the information he could give. Until... Suddenly more information came up. "Over 100 casualties". This is something easily measured. Though still very vague. You heard it here first, he's been able to predict events like the one that failed to happen on Aug 4th "over many occasions". Nor were they the events of yesterday. Which is just about everywhere, with the possible possible exception of the moon. I've searched the news and have yet to mind any mention of "any attack planned for the 4th August". Nor do I find the "heightened security" to be "unprecedented". Unprecedented would be if we had this type of security before 9/11. What we have right now is on par with the threat level.http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/ "more from the UK: doubt over airport 'terror plot'"
They are not claiming the caught the suspects in the act of committing an attack. If they did I'm sure it would be front-page news. They said he was planning an attack. Allot of things "may not necessarily take place". Forgive me for not being impressed.Even if someone did tip them off, there would be nothing they could do based on your prophecy. Do you think they read your post and immediately scrambled to send as many men they could to every potential "Western Target" they could think of? Nope reread the BBC news. They were not "planned for this time", they were, if anything, planning at that time. THERE WAS NO ATTACK! Are you saying that on Sept 19th there won't be an attack again? Shouldn't your prediction have taken into account the "unprecedented heightened security over the last few days". It was not a result of you prediction, and hence should have been easily foreseen in your prediction. Of course its a risk. It’s been a risk for a long time. It will be a risk for a long time to come. I predict they will probably heighten security just about every time they get info of a threat. Not info from some lunatic on a web site, but from real intelligence like they did in this case. There was no more a heightened state of alert on the 4th than there was on the 3rd, and no more than there is today.If they get it from crackpots posting rumors on web sites than I'm moving to Canada.

Good analysis of this whole sorry affair.

What I wonder is: what are these 'perceptions' like in Lucianarchy's head?

Are they visual, aural, vague thoughts, passing fancies, daydreams, or what?

I mean, how does he perceive 'over 100 casualties'. How does he differentiate between perceptions of 'casualties' and perceptions of 'people dead'?

Of course, lack of specificity is a hallmark of psychic predictions, and 'casualties' is a convenient out.

I also wonder about the general psychic's get out clause:

"I see your future. But it is not fixed. You can change your future."

So, what 'future' are they 'seeing'?

I'm surprised the charlatans don't start saying that their failed predictions actually did happen . . . in another timeline, in a parallel universe, or some such.

There are many who would believe that.

Not to give unlucky Luci any ideas, or anything;)
 
Lucianarchy said:

I have percieved 19th September as another high risk window for similar attacks

Wow you're really good, I've read your previous predictions on this board with great joy! You had been my favorite prophet to date...but, I must confess, there is someone else. She and I met over dinner one night at the "Manchu Wok" buffet, and right off the bat she gave me a prediction that soon came true. She said "Tonight will begin your life of wealth" and lo and behold the fortune-cookie...err I mean.. my new partner was 100% accurate, I bought a lottery ticket... and lost! She "saw" that I was going to win the jackpot, but statistics was on hightened alert and prevented the start of my successful life. But I was too much in awe of her dead-on hit to care about the loss of wealth.

Hopefully Luci, one day, you'll enhance your psi-ability to the point where you can become a formidable opponent for even the least vague of fortune cookie.
 
The Mighty Thor said:
What I wonder is: what are these 'perceptions' like in Lucianarchy's head?

Are they visual, aural, vague thoughts, passing fancies, daydreams, or what?

I mean, how does he perceive 'over 100 casualties'. How does he differentiate between perceptions of 'casualties' and perceptions of 'people dead'?

Of course, lack of specificity is a hallmark of psychic predictions, and 'casualties' is a convenient out.

It is telling that his predictions seem to change over time. He can add details later on that did not show up at first - or at least wasn't reported. He can also play down previously stated bits.

The Mighty Thor said:
I also wonder about the general psychic's get out clause:

"I see your future. But it is not fixed. You can change your future."

So, what 'future' are they 'seeing'?

I would say that it is clear that, for Lucianarchy, the future and past are plastic in nature. They can be changed. We have also seen this with other Superstitious: JustGeoff has argued that the past is changeable (although unable to show us how). Neofight, who believes in John Edward, has changed her perception of what happened at a JE seminar after seeing a tape of it - never acknowledging that she changed her mind at all.

What is rather ironic - no "psirony" here - is that the past and future are changeable by reality. They prove their point: that we all create our own reality - by pointing to something that we all can verify.
 
Nyarlathotep said:
I wish Luci logic worked in the casinos. If I were playing roulette and my number comes up I win, if it doesn't come up I win anyway because it clearly WOULD have come up but something happened to change it. I'd be a rich, rich man.

Yeah, but they NEVER use their powers for personal gain! :rolleyes:

And anyone that does will get theirs in the end..or something liek that... :rolleyes:
 
Cthulhu said:
Yeah, but they NEVER use their powers for personal gain! :rolleyes:

And anyone that does will get theirs in the end..or something liek that... :rolleyes:

So I've heard. Pretty convenient for them, eh?
 
Nyarlathotep said:
So I've heard. Pretty convenient for them, eh?

This is one of the aspects of Superstitious Claims that I find the most annoying: It implies a higher state of morality. When reaching this level of "illumination", you achieve an almost god-like benevolence, a sanctified state of mind.

Until you get the tough questions from the skeptics, then the facade cracks like an eggshell, and the insults and threats begin to fly.

I have rarely met anyone as thin-skinned as the Superstitious.
 
CFLarsen said:
This is one of the aspects of Superstitious Claims that I find the most annoying: It implies a higher state of morality. When reaching this level of "illumination", you achieve an almost god-like benevolence, a sanctified state of mind.

Until you get the tough questions from the skeptics, then the facade cracks like an eggshell, and the insults and threats begin to fly.

I have rarely met anyone as thin-skinned as the Superstitious.

That's true. The other thing about that midset that really slays me that supposed higher state of morality is how often they claim not to care about things like money yet they have absolutely no qulams about charging people big bucks to learn how to do whatever it is that they claim to be able to do.

And if you call them on it, that thin-skinnedness you mentioned kicks in. Utterly amazing to me...
 
Nyarlathotep said:
That's true. The other thing about that midset that really slays me that supposed higher state of morality is how often they claim not to care about things like money yet they have absolutely no qulams about charging people big bucks to learn how to do whatever it is that they claim to be able to do.

And if you call them on it, that thin-skinnedness you mentioned kicks in. Utterly amazing to me...

Oh, yes. Over a beer at TAM3, I'll tell you some sordid tales about just how much some are charging...
 
CFLarsen said:
Oh, yes. Over a beer at TAM3, I'll tell you some sordid tales about just how much some are charging...

I look forward to hearing it. But from some of the stuf I have seen, I can well imagine...
 

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