Merged 2024 Election Thread

[johnny karate]

That's way less relevant than polls. If anything, it shows abortion is not as well aligned with parties, as some republicans might wish .. and it says exactly nothing about Biden vs. Trump, much less on national level.

And look, first article I fount even mentions it: https://apnews.com/article/election-2023-highlights-868a21bf3537a0533ae3fd8007d07eef

Repealing Roe v Wade was a calamitous overreach for Republicans and Trump was the guy who made it happen. The idea that Trump is not tied to that is laughably absurd.

 

[Pixel42]

Agreed. Honestly, when was the last time anyone in this group completed a phone survey?

When was the last time a reputable polling company published a poll based solely on phone surveys?

 

[johnny karate]

If you look into the details of the poll they did say it was phone and online, plus they claim they called people representing the demographics of the usa by age, race, geography etc. Sure, if you called 1000 landlines at random chances are you'd get mostly older people and they'd over represent Trump supporters. But they claim they have ways of getting around that.

The entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, population density, civic engagement, and Pew Research Center's NPORS figures for religious affiliation
and frequency of internet use. The sample was also weighted for self-reported voter registration, 2020 recalled vote, party identification in detail (leaners broken out) and collapsed crossed by self-reported political ideology, self-reported voter registration, race by education, sex, age, region. The benchmarks for voter registration, 2020
recalled vote and the party identification crosses were taken from CNN's national poll conducted by SSRS via web and phone from July 1-31, 2023, which implemented a full probability design via Address-Based Sampling (ABS).

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24131320/cnn-poll-on-2024.pdf

pg28

ETA: oh to answer your question. 2018 for me.

Seems like it's legit. Or maybe it's not. I honestly don't know. I guess we just have to take their word for it.

What I do know is that I don't need a byzantine explanation to understand election results, nor do I have to take as an article of faith what they tell me.

 

[lobosrul5]

Seems like it's legit. Or maybe it's not. I honestly don't know. I guess we just have to take their word for it.

What I do know is that I don't need a byzantine explanation to understand election results, nor do I have to take as an article of faith what they tell me.

Hmm, IMO we do. Unless I'm actually allowed to see the ballots myself, I am taking it on faith that the counting is done accurately and fairly. I do of course know that there are people out there that want to subvert the process... like the guy who used to be POTUS.

ETA: and I'd argue that our process for choosing the POTUS is pretty damned byzantine.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I answer political polls on my landline intermittently. But the minute it sounds like a push poll I tell the poll taker that and hang up.

 

[Stacyhs]

The size of the population is irrelevant; 3662 is a more than adequate sample size to produce reasonably accurate results, provided it's a representative sample.

https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

Reputable pollsters go to great lengths to ensure their samples are representative.

Pollsters cannot control several factors including who chooses to take a survey or not.

From Pew Research:

Consistent with past research, polling errors are larger for some topics – like political engagement – that may be related to a person’s willingness to take surveys.

While accuracy is solid on most outcomes [non-political surveys], this research also consistently finds that polls overrepresent people who are active in their communities or are active politically. For example, in the current analysis, about three-quarters of adults polled (77%) said they voted in the 2020 general election, while the actual rate was just two-thirds (66%).

Many public opinion polls are still conducted by telephone using randomly-drawn samples or, even more common, are conducted online using opt-in samples.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Repealing Roe v Wade was a calamitous overreach for Republicans and Trump was the guy who made it happen. The idea that Trump is not tied to that is laughably absurd.

Trump is tied to it .. but it's not 100% overlap. It's not that if you voted for abortion rights, you will vote for Biden, and vice versa.
I'm claiming the different in overlap is bigger than theoretical error of the poll.

 

[Dr.Sid]

I like how we went from "Times are hard" to "Biden is boring" once actual metrics that measure how hard times are were brought into the discussion.

(And if "Biden is boring" is enough for Trump to get elected, then this country deserves what it gets.)

I'm not sure where you're seeing complacency or what trend you're looking at, but Democrats aren't acting like a party that is taking anything for granted. And as a result, they can't stop winning elections.

"Biden is boring" is typical Trump style of argumentation. He won't argue with numbers and statistics. It got him elected once, and his approval improved since his loss, while Biden's dropped. He won't change his style, I doubt he's even capable of it. But it does work on many people. Roughly 50%. Doesn't it make you nervous ?

To everybody here: what makes you think Trump will not win ?

 

[Segnosaur]

As far as the NY case, a lot of people don't even realize he's already lost the case in a summary judgement.

A lot might not know. But some do know he lost. I suspect its a case where most MAGAchud just don't care rather than don't know.

Indictments are meaningless at moving the needle.

But in a sane world they SHOULD be. And the indictments are based in part on evidence made public long ago.

His loose lips are going to be an issue more and more as the media reports how it might have contributed to Hamas planning that was missed by Israel.

Trump gave away national secrets to the Russians and the Iranians. He gave information regarding nuclear submarine deployments to an Australian business man. Republican supporters do not care about issues of national security if it doesn't involve "Buttery males".

And not all polls show him rising in popularity.

True, not all of them do. But fivethirtyeight does an aggregate where they combine multiple polls (weighted by their reliability and age).

 

[Segnosaur]

Pollsters cannot control several factors including who chooses to take a survey or not.

No they cannot control who decides to take a survey.

But pollsters are smart people. They know how to adjust the statistics to compensate. (For example, if they find that "only 10% of our respondents are people under 30, but 20% of the population is that age", they will give more weight to those 10% that did respond.)

The average polling results in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections were both within 5% of the final results, so they must be doing SOMETHING right.

Now, it is still early in the election cycle, more than enough time for things to change. But, that doesn't mean we still shouldn't be concerned. Lots of people thought "no way he could win in 2016" but he did. Lots of people thought that after the 2021 terrorist attacks he would be done, but he's currently the republican frontrunner.

 

[Stacyhs]

"Biden is boring" is typical Trump style of argumentation. He won't argue with numbers and statistics. It got him elected once, and his approval improved since his loss, while Biden's dropped. He won't change his style, I doubt he's even capable of it. But it does work on many people. Roughly 50%. Doesn't it make you nervous ?

To everybody here: what makes you think Trump will not win ?

It's not that Trump won't change his style, it's that he can't change it. What you see is what he is. You may as well ask a rattlesnake not to strike when threatened. He lacks any kind of impulse control which he has demonstrated in court.

This 2016 article in The Atlantic by a psychologist discusses Trump's personality:

THE MIND OF DONALD TRUMP
Narcissism, disagreeableness, grandiosity—a psychologist investigates how Trump’s extraordinary personality might shape his possible presidency.

It is possible that Trump could win. I stopped underestimating the stupidity of the American electorate in 2016.

 

[Stacyhs]

No they cannot control who decides to take a survey.

But pollsters are smart people. They know how to adjust the statistics to compensate. (For example, if they find that "only 10% of our respondents are people under 30, but 20% of the population is that age", they will give more weight to those 10% that did respond.)

The average polling results in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections were both within 5% of the final results, so they must be doing SOMETHING right.
Now, it is still early in the election cycle, more than enough time for things to change. But, that doesn't mean we still shouldn't be concerned. Lots of people thought "no way he could win in 2016" but he did. Lots of people thought that after the 2021 terrorist attacks he would be done, but he's currently the republican frontrunner.

Citation for highlighted, please.

From The Washington Times:

Election polls from 2016 were a case study in failure

The 2016 polls in swing states were way off. The site Five Thirty Eight projected that Hillary Clinton had a 71.4% chance of an Electoral College victory. The site projected big leads in Florida (2%), Wisconsin (5%), Michigan (4%) and Pennsylvania (4%). The New York Times projected an 85% chance of a Clinton presidency. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball projected Clinton would win 322 electoral votes. No pollster projected a Trump victory, because of faulty poll data in the critical states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Every four years, the media obsesses over every poll the moment they are released. In too many cases we find out on election day that the polls we believed for months were wildly wrong. Americans seem to have a collective case of amnesia, because we all continue to obsess over polls every four years and tend to believe them.

 

[ZiprHead]

Agreed. Honestly, when was the last time anyone in this group completed a phone survey?

I got called a couple years ago. About 7 questions in it became obvious it was a push poll. I told the person calling to **** off and hung up.

 

[Venom]

"Donald Trump is FKIN REAL man!" I hear at my workplace from middle-aged white guys, some of whom are actually against right-wingers, to hear them explain themselves.

I don't know how that works, maybe they sincerely like Trump's openness? How. How TF is this grifter REAL? Cause he speaks off the cuff all the damn time? because he doesn't use big words? Because he just spews anything that pops into his head at the moment?

 

[Stacyhs]

"Donald Trump is FKIN REAL man!" I hear at my workplace from middle-aged white guys, some of whom are actually against right-wingers, to hear them explain themselves.

I don't know how that works, maybe they sincerely like Trump's openness? How. How TF is this grifter REAL? Cause he speaks off the cuff all the damn time? because he doesn't use big words? Because he just spews anything that pops into his head at the moment?

Doesn't say much for what the guys at your workplace think a 'real man' is.

This 'real woman' finds nothing 'real man' about Trump at all. Loathsome pig.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

A lot might not know. But some do know he lost. I suspect its a case where most MAGAchud just don't care rather than don't know.

You are forgetting about the large number of low information voters. They may not be paying attention to anything that isn't blasted all over the news for days at a time. Right now they see Trump's face and people calling Biden too old.

Wait till the headlines are Trump Org kicked out of NY, Trump not really a billionaire, and soon to follow, Trump going to jail. Those will be big headlines even the low information voters can't miss.

Trump gave away national secrets to the Russians and the Iranians. He gave information regarding nuclear submarine deployments to an Australian business man. Republican supporters do not care about issues of national security if it doesn't involve "Buttery males".

I don't know what a buttery male is.

The 'Trump disclosed security secrets that got to Hamas' is just getting going in those glaring headlines. That might just counter Biden supporting Israel's slaughter of Palestinians.

True, not all of them do. But fivethirtyeight does an aggregate where they combine multiple polls (weighted by their reliability and age).

And?

I think all the current points that are going to made about the polls have been made. None of the polls claiming I should be worried about Trump beating Biden concern me.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I got called a couple years ago. About 7 questions in it became obvious it was a push poll. I told the person calling to **** off and hung up.

We think alike. I ask at the beginning if it is a push poll, they say no, and as soon as it's obvious it is I explain to the poll taker (because they are usually just hired callers) what a push poll is and hang up.

I don't answer most of the calls I get but once in a while I do.

 

[Stacyhs]

Don't forget that many Republicans only see what FOX, Newsmax, and OAN present:
the trials are all Biden-Dem directed witch hunts persecuting an innocent man who is fighting for them.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

"Donald Trump is FKIN REAL man!" I hear at my workplace from middle-aged white guys, some of whom are actually against right-wingers, to hear them explain themselves.

I don't know how that works, maybe they sincerely like Trump's openness? How. How TF is this grifter REAL? Cause he speaks off the cuff all the damn time? because he doesn't use big words? Because he just spews anything that pops into his head at the moment?

Because he makes false promise after false promise and it's what they want to hear.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Doesn't say much for what the guys at your workplace think a 'real man' is.

This 'real woman' finds nothing 'real man' about Trump at all. Loathsome pig.

He looks quite wimpy going up those plane stairs with TP stuck to his shoe. Then there is the video where he can't close the umbrella. And when he hunches over like he did coming down the ramp at West Point he looks especially wimpy.