Merged 2024 Election Thread

[The Great Zaganza]

Chances are that Trump will get more and more whiny as the trials cost him more and more time, money and nerves.
And I think not even the most hardcore Trump fans only want to hear about him complain.

 

[Norman Alexander]

Chances are that Trump will get more and more whiny as the trials cost him more and more time, money and nerves.
And I think not even the most hardcore Trump fans only want to hear about him complain.

The Dems are probably going to wind him up like a clockwork toy.

 

[Solitaire]

Democrats do have another option:

Dean Phillips

Like me, you've probably never heard of him, but he is a three-term
congressman, which makes him a viable candidate without Democratic
Governors or Senators in the race.

He has a fairly unremarkable list of positions. But he's absolutely right
about the president's age.

If ever there was a "generic Democrat" he seems to fit the bill. He's 54,
looks presidential enough. From Minnesota.

He's probably not going to excite far lefties, but for moderates like myself
he seems more than adequate.

WE NEED AN ALTERNATIVE TO BIDEN!!! Dean Phillips is an alternative.
He's not a wacky anti-vax conspiracy theorist nor a woo-woo new age
self help guru, but a poster board standard-issue generic politician from
the Midwest. Perfect.

It's way too late!

He started two weeks ago and the state deadlines start closing
in a month or two.

What you do is, in 2022 you think about running and make you up mind.
At the end of the year, then you gather a team of a couple of hundred people
getting you on the state ballots, and you announce a month or two later, say
in March or April.

On the other hand, he'll get plenty of experience in this trial run for 2028.
Really, he needs to think things through and make plans. I wasn't impressed
with his NBC interview a week ago.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

any candidate not called John Smith doesn't have a chance in a write-in campaign.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

A scenario I've pondered, and honestly, wouldn't hate seeing, would be Trump somehow winning the presidency, while the house AND senate both go heavily democrat, immediately rendering Trump not only powerless, but facing certain impeachment as well.

Too dangerous. Gawd knows what Trump could pull off regardless of the Constitution.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...WE NEED AN ALTERNATIVE TO BIDEN!!! ....

No, we don't. We need people to stop following the media narratives they put out because that's their business model, scandal and sensation, not facts.

This is a skeptic's forum. Use your critical thinking skills. It's not hard.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I wonder if there ought to be a separate 2023 Election Thread, but since 2024 is still a year off I figure there's time to discuss it right here.

Major results so far:

Ohio voted to protect abortion rights in the state constitution, a big win for Democrats and Pro-Choice people.

Ohio also voted to legalize marijuana.

Kentucky reelected Democratic Governor Andy Beshear. (ETA: Trump had endorsed his opponent, Attorney General Daniel Cameron and encouraged Kentuckians to vote for Cameron on Truth Social. In that sense he was a sort of proxy for Trump.)

In Virginia, Democrats appear to have won a majority in the state senate and are leading in the state house of delegates. Also, the first openly transgender state senator was elected.

Yahoo News live blog of results

In any state where the elections aren't at the same levels of Enver Hoxha run Albania, Democrats won in those held in the last few days. These states were all "red" or "purple" according to the punditry. If the Biden campaign can harness the general energy at grassroots level, next year could be an absolute blowout.

 

[Susheel]

How about this...Democratic candidates and Democratic voters stop being complacent and thinking that the US electoral system "is the bestest in the world".

 

[Dr.Sid]

No, we don't. We need people to stop following the media narratives they put out because that's their business model, scandal and sensation, not facts.

This is a skeptic's forum. Use your critical thinking skills. It's not hard.

Critical thinking says Biden lost 15% of approval rate in first year of presidency and never got it back. Trump actually gradually improved few % over the same time.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

He's probably not going to excite far lefties, but for moderates like myself he seems more than adequate.

Moderates like yourself have Biden. He's your guy. Grandpa Joe. Make politics boring again. It's what he promised to do, it's what he was elected to do, it's what he delivered. It's what he will do again. If you want to seek an alternative, for pete's sake try to find someone with a working spine who'll actively strive to fix things for the better, not just "status quo but younger."

 

[Apathia]

No, we don't. We need people to stop following the media narratives they put out because that's their business model, scandal and sensation, not facts.

This is a skeptic's forum. Use your critical thinking skills. It's not hard.

Yes!

Folks, please remember how how Hillary Clinton was smeared by irresponsible press and conservative design.

 

[Puppycow]

Moderates like yourself have Biden. He's your guy. Grandpa Joe. Make politics boring again. It's what he promised to do, it's what he was elected to do, it's what he delivered. It's what he will do again. If you want to seek an alternative, for pete's sake try to find someone with a working spine who'll actively strive to fix things for the better, not just "status quo but younger."

You don't understand my objection to Biden. I see it as who can stop Trump. If Biden can do it again, fine, but I'd rather have a younger person.

If Trump wins, then all the people who said let's just accept the inevitable and nominate Biden again it'll be fine trust me will have some explaining to do.

 

[johnny karate]

Critical thinking says Biden lost 15% of approval rate in first year of presidency and never got it back. Trump actually gradually improved few % over the same time.

How does critical thinking connect that in a meaningful way to an election that’s a year from now?

 

[johnny karate]

You don't understand my objection to Biden. I see it as who can stop Trump. If Biden can do it again, fine, but I'd rather have a younger person.

If Trump wins, then all the people who said let's just accept the inevitable and nominate Biden again it'll be fine trust me will have some explaining to do.

Counterpoint: If Trump wins, the people who claimed to not want that but then spent years tearing down his opponent will have some explaining to do.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

You don't understand my objection to Biden. I see it as who can stop Trump. If Biden can do it again, fine, but I'd rather have a younger person.

If Trump wins, then all the people who said let's just accept the inevitable and nominate Biden again it'll be fine trust me will have some explaining to do.

Biden can absolutely do it again, precisely because he did it before. The Democratic party is shockingly averse to new ideas no matter how pressing their need, but the flip side is they're great at fighting the last war. Biden's had a perfectly adequate presidency, his health is fine, the economy's on the rebound, the recent elections indicate that abortion rights are a HUGE issue driving voter turnout and more generally that people have wised up to the extremist GOP game.

The only reason to consider a change is in case the actuarial tables catch up to him on the campaign trail. But that's a better argument for a solid VP pick ready to take over than for losing out on all the benefits of incumbency. You want to get rid of Harris, that's fine by me.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Critical thinking says Biden lost 15% of approval rate in first year of presidency and never got it back. Trump actually gradually improved few % over the same time.

And critical thinking says there has been a negative reaction to his response to Israel bombing Palestine. It's a year out from the election, things will be different then and Trump is worse on this issue including his giving away intelligence secrets that likely helped Hamas.

 

[Segnosaur]

A scenario I've pondered, and honestly, wouldn't hate seeing, would be Trump somehow winning the presidency, while the house AND senate both go heavily democrat, immediately rendering Trump not only powerless, but facing certain impeachment as well.

Problem with that scenario...

Impeach Trump, and whomever was picked as his Vice President becomes president. You could end up with someone who is just as corrupt/incompetent, but because they "tweet less" look like a better choice as an incumbent when it comes to re-election time.

 

[JoeMorgue]

CNN Poll: Trump narrowly leads Biden in hypothetical rematch.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup

Translation: "We asked somewhere between 100 and 1,000 Americans who were either old enough to still have a landline and/or stupid enough to answer a call from anonymous probably spam number and who had nothing better to do than sit through a survey, here's what they said."

 

[Segnosaur]

Well, this or that, Trump is still in it, no question about it. His court cases are not hurting him in the slightest.

"Not in the slightest"? Can you back that up or did you spitball it? Are you basing it on one variable or have you actually thought it through? Have you taken into account there's a delay between court case progress and poll data collection?

Well, looking at the polling numbers from:
fivethirtyeight (which provides a combined/aggregate value):

Trump's favorability rating in February 2021 was 39% (before any indictments were handed down). His current favorability rating is 41%. Trump hasn't yet faced any criminal trials, but in that time frame he:
- Lost a court case against E Jean Carroll (he didn't testify in court but his deposition was reported in the news)
- Had 4 criminal indictments issued. (He hasn't been on trial for any of them but he's still been arraigned.)
- Had some pretty troubling evidence presented against him in the investigation over the Jan 6 terrorist attacks
- Had a summary judgement issued against him in the NY Fraud case

All of these would have had time to impact his popularity. But instead of decreasing, his favorability is up by approximately 2%..

 

[lobosrul5]

Well, looking at the polling numbers from:
fivethirtyeight (which provides a combined/aggregate value):

Trump's favorability rating in February 2021 was 39% (before any indictments were handed down). His current favorability rating is 41%. Trump hasn't yet faced any criminal trials, but in that time frame he:
- Lost a court case against E Jean Carroll (he didn't testify in court but his deposition was reported in the news)
- Had 4 criminal indictments issued. (He hasn't been on trial for any of them but he's still been arraigned.)
- Had some pretty troubling evidence presented against him in the investigation over the Jan 6 terrorist attacks
- Had a summary judgement issued against him in the NY Fraud case

All of these would have had time to impact his popularity. But instead of decreasing, his favorability is up by approximately 2%..

Its a pretty fair assessment, I think, that Trumps favorability ratings have found a bottom. Its hard to imagine just what, at this point, he could do that would cause someone to no longer support him. TBF though, I have felt that was since Jan 6. It was just as obvious then, that he was a liar, a cheat, a thief, a narcissist, an idiot, a panderer, and a philanderer than it will be if he is found guilty of every single charge levied at him.