The New York Times/Siena College survey may also be significantly understating Biden’s support and overstating Trump’s. Trump’s supporters are particularly exercised right now because he is under attack from a variety of sources and their first reaction is always to defend him. Biden, who is in the midst of making hard calls on Israel, Ukraine and other difficult domestic issues, is invariably going to be making many people upset, even within his own coalition. This tends to look bad for an incumbent in a non-election year, but partisans pretty typically “come home” to their parties during an election year as they are reminded of the stakes.
And there are a number of ways in which that poll struggles to pass the smell test. It shows 22% of Black voters backing Trump when he won 12% of that demographic in 2020, with that figure often below 10% for Republican presidential candidates. The poll shows voters under 30 preferring Biden by only one percentage point; Biden won that group by double digits three years ago.
Is it possible that these Democratic leaning groups have moved so quickly in the Republican direction? It’s possible, but not particularly probable — demographic change in political support rarely happens that quickly, even allowing for some past polls being relatively accurate a year before an election.
One thing we do know is that presidential election results have been pretty rigid in the last two decades. Trump got 46% of the vote in 2016 and 47% in 2020; he’ll probably do around the same in 2024 if he is the Republican nominee. Chances are, we’re going to end up with a very close election, with the winner being determined by just tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states. This is the way elections are going in this era, and we don’t need a poll to know this.
