Merged 2024 Election Thread

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Trump will lose the election. There will be some long term changes from Trump. Red state politicians will run on "America first" from now on. The disintrest in the world affairs is clear. The Ukraines will get some support in the next 10 years, but the long term effect is that the leading role of the US military will gradually go to a small level. As small as Trump's mushroom penis.
 
zorro99 said:
Poll: 49% of Independents think Trump should drop out post-guilty verdict


https://www.axios.com/2024/06/01/poll-trump-conviction-election-independent-voters
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And 15% of the polled Republicans say Trump should drop out.

Yet the poll shows 44% of those polled would still vote for Trump, versus 45% for Biden. To within the margin of error, that's a tie.

zorro99 said:
More than half of voters approve of Donald Trump’s New York conviction

https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/donald-trump-polling-guilty-verdict-jury-trial
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Dr.Sid said:
Barely more ..
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zorro99 said:
That’s all it it takes to win an election.
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No. As recent elections have shown, the electoral college creates a bias in favor of the Republican candidate. To win, a Democrat has to win the popular vote by at least 3% or so. To avoid a nail-biter on election night and for a few days thereafter, a Democrat would have to win the popular vote by at least 5%.
 
jt512 said:
Why do skeptics never learn that modern polls include cell phones?
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And that the highly qualified professional pollsters who design and conduct polls actually know what they're doing, including how to weight the responses they get to ensure their sample is representative.
 
I think it's worth noting that your average Trump supporter can't wait to tell anyone who'll listen how much they love Trump, heck, I've seen an old lady (likely my age, but who's counting?) with an actual tattoo of his worthless mug on her arm, they love him so much. So they'll happily answer any poll they get the chance to.
Meanwhile, given the near, okay scratch the near, pure cult like behavior of the average Trump supporters, anyone who might have the unmitigated audacity to support anyone BUT Trump, may well be a bit hesitant to actually, openly, verbally respond to a "poll" asking who they'll be voting for come November. I mean, who knows who's on the other end of that phone asking those questions?
How do you weight your polling for that factor?
 
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Pixel42 said:
And that the highly qualified professional pollsters who design and conduct polls actually know what they're doing, including how to weight the responses they get to ensure their sample is representative.
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Except for one factor. it is never weighed, as there is no data. people who are angry, one way or amother, are more likely to take up the poll. If the pollsters actually gets a live person on the phone.

Polls that are not phone calls, on line polls, have no meaning.
 
Dr.Sid said:
First poll after the verdict, 41:39 for Biden:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/on...-guilty-verdict-reutersipsos-poll-2024-05-31/
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ZiprHead said:
Polls are only composed of people too stupid to get out of being polled.
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Norman Alexander said:
Or old folks from a reliable phone book extract who always answer their landline and like to chat with the nice man for a while.
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jt512 said:
Why do skeptics never learn that modern polls include cell phones?
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gabeygoat said:
people rarely answer cell phones unless they know the caller
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Pixel42 said:
And that the highly qualified professional pollsters who design and conduct polls actually know what they're doing, including how to weight the responses they get to ensure their sample is representative.
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Norman Alexander said:
That is not relevant to my point. But I will make it clearer. You can get any result you like from a phone survey if you call the right people.
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Or we could follow the links to see the methodology of the polling. It would save us a lot of time speculating on whether it was done using landlines or cell phones. It was neither…

HOW ARE THE REUTERS/IPSOS POLLS CONDUCTED?

Ipsos uses its proprietary "KnowledgePanel," a representative sample of Americans aged 18 and over.
Participants are selected through a postal address-based sampling method that includes all U.S. households. They are polled online. Respondents who do not already have internet access are provided with internet service and a tablet at no cost.
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But paying attention to the actual methods & how we know they work wouldn't serve the narrative. Just always remember: everything's fine, everything's fine, everything's fine... anyone who says otherwise is just a hater trying to tear you down... manifest it into your truth by focusing it through your chakras, like a light of enlightenment through a crystal. The universe's spirit will harmonize with yours soon.
 
angrysoba said:
Or we could follow the links to see the methodology of the polling. It would save us a lot of time speculating on whether it was done using landlines or cell phones. It was neither…
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This constant bitching about the inaccuracy of polls gets on my tits.

But but but... they were wrong in 2016/2020/2022!!11!1!

Fact is, they weren't far off at all and within the margin of error on all counts. Maybe people don't understand what a margin of error is?

The fact that should have Democrat voters quivering is that Trump is within the margin of error - in any sane world he should be a 90:1 outsider with 5% of the vote, not the actual ******* favourite.
 
The only polls that matter are the ones in battleground states - total support tells you absolutely nothing.

Pollsters should report predicted Electoral Collage votes, not general popularity.
 
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The Great Zaganza said:
The only polls that matter are the ones in battleground states - total support tells you absolutely nothing.

Pollsters should report predicted Electoral Collage votes, not general popularity.
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Well, they did that not long ago, showing the battleground states. It was surmised by one poster here that they probably polled retirees in Florida on their landlines (Florida wasn't even part of the poll), and another poster referred us to someone called Morning Joe who claimed that the New York Times faked the polls to get their journalists something to write about.

Morning Joe was the guy who made the mistake of thinking that the national polls were more meaningful than the battleground state polls and pretended to be incredulous that more people weren't covering them for some presumably sinister reason.
 
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angrysoba said:
Or we could follow the links to see the methodology of the polling. It would save us a lot of time speculating on whether it was done using landlines or cell phones. It was neither…
HOW ARE THE REUTERS/IPSOS POLLS CONDUCTED?

Ipsos uses its proprietary "KnowledgePanel," a representative sample of Americans aged 18 and over.
Participants are selected through a postal address-based sampling method that includes all U.S. households. They are polled online. Respondents who do not already have internet access are provided with internet service and a tablet at no cost.
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Really? They are going to afford hundreds if not thousands of new internet services and (perhaps a temporary loan of) hundreds if not thousands of tablets just for this online survey?

Then they expect people who have lived with no internet access, deliberate or otherwise, to drive a tablet to do online polling? Given the USA is already saturated with Wifi and internets and even your smart watch is online, that sounds like they are polling folks who never had or actively refuse to be online. E.g. Yokum hillbillies up a holler in Tennessee, yurt-based communes in the Montana mountains, Amish and Mennonites, or a bunch of old folks homes.

Or...

It's concocted data made up to look statistically like a realistic poll, which can go on the front page to generate clicks. Perhaps they went as far as asking some mates down at the bar at lunch time.

You decide. ;)
 
The Great Zaganza said:
The only polls that matter are the ones in battleground states - total support tells you absolutely nothing.
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And that's where it's even worse for Genocide Joe than the national level. He's not just behind in all of those states; he's down by a gigantic margin in half of them. And that's just counting the ones people have been calling "battlegrounds" based on previous elections, which doesn't even include all of the real battelgrounds. They're now roughly tied in Virginia, which was supposed to be blue... just like some other states we now call "battlegrounds" were supposed to be blue a couple of elections ago. The DP keeps watching states change color against them and just sticks its fingers in its ears and shouts "La-la-la-la-la I can't hear you on your land line!".
 
Norman Alexander said:
That is not relevant to my point. But I will make it clearer. You can get any result you like from a phone survey if you call the right people.
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Sorry I misunderstood your „point.“ I mistakenly assumed that it would have something to with how polls are actually conducted.
 
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