Merged 2024 Election Thread

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jt512 said:
Sorry I misunderstood your „point.“ I mistakenly assumed that it would have something to with how polls are actually conducted.
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Let me help you. Here's Clive James writing about street polling in the early 1960's. Nothing has changed except the technology of recording.

The low-paying jobs were in the office, coding the reports. The even-lower-paying jobs were out in the street, where you stood with your report sheet and asked randomly selected people from the passing crowd whether they preferred the cap of the plastic bottle of green liquid detergent fully detachable from the plastic bottle or else attached to the plastic bottle by means of a short plastic attachment. In reality the selection of respondents wasn’t random at all, because the only people who would consent to answer such questions were mental defectives or people with such inadequate personalities that any form of conversation came as a blessing. For the first day I tried to be honest but it was hopeless. The only man who gave a coherent set of answers to all twenty-five questions turned out to come from Sweden. Rather than discard the one answer-sheet that made sense, I wrote down that he came from Swindon. It then occurred to me, as it had independently occurred to all my colleagues, that if you could make up the man’s address you could also make up the man’s answers and even the man himself. The whole thing could be done in the pub.

Employing the same skills which had scored me a perfect mark for my Clinical Case Study in the Sydney University Psychology exams, I produced, at the end of my first week, a set of reports which ensured my promotion to the office staff proper. This meant that I could sit in the office and take the fantasy a step further by coding the incoming reports so that they would be ready for transfer to punched cards.
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https://archive.clivejames.com/books/um2-10.htm
 
Sounds like Clive James knew as little about the maths behind opinion polls as he did about the science behind climatology (he was an outspoken climate change denier).
 
Delvo said:
The DP keeps watching states change color against them and just sticks its fingers in its ears and shouts "La-la-la-la-la I can't hear you on your land line!".
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A few posters in this thread are giving an excellent example of that.
 
Pixel42 said:
Sounds like Clive James knew as little about the maths behind opinion polls as he did about the science behind climatology (he was an outspoken climate change denier).
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jt512 said:
Unlike you and Clive James, whoever he is, as a statistician, I actually understand polling methodology.
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The story, which was satire if you hadn't picked it, was about how polls can be easily manipulated no matter the methodology or subject. Not that they will be, just that they can be. Nobody is doubting your statistical skills. What you lack is critical skepticism.

As an exercise, see how many ways you can think of how these online polls could be manipulated to get a predetermined result published. Don't think of the statistical design and "rules", think of the loopholes to those rules. Here's the first obstacle: How do you overcome lying anywhere in the process?
 
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Eric von ************** says the African-American vote is "swinging over to Donald Trump in spades".

Eric Trump Tells Fox News the Black Vote Is ‘Swinging Over to Donald Trump In Spades’

Eric Trump claimed on Sunday morning that Black voters are gravitating toward his father Donald Trump, stating that they are “swinging over” to him “in spades.”

The former president’s son used the terminology while insisting his father’s criminal conviction last week will help him among various voting blocs in November. On Thursday, a Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. Republicans have slammed the verdict, calling it a partisan travesty while insisting that it will nonetheless vault the ex-president back into the White House.
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Polling companies who manipulate their polls go out of business pretty quickly when the behaviour they predict fails to align with reality. No company is going to give more business to a polling company that told them changing their product in a particular way would increase sales and it actually makes them go down. No political party is going to give more business to a polling company that told them adopting a particular policy would get them more votes, and they actually end up with less. No news organisation is going to give more business to a polling company that told them X was going to win an election and they actually come third.

That's why reputable polling companies ensure their methodologies are as unbiased, and their samples as representative, as they can make them. They want to keep that reputation, and the repeat business it earns them.
 
Norman Alexander said:
The story, which was satire if you hadn't picked it, was about how polls can be easily manipulated no matter the methodology or subject. Not that they will be, just that they can be.
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In other words, you actually never had a point in the first place.
 
Blank said:
In a move that shows off his stable genius character DJT decides to lock up the contested convicted felon voter block by (hopefully) getting himself locked up and giving the voter block someone they can relate to.
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Apropos of locking up:
Trump: "I didn't say, 'Lock her up!'"

Trump told Fox News he never said 'lock her up.' See video of him saying it (CNN on YouTube, June 3, 2024)
 
sir drinks-a-lot said:
It's funny how the people who can't hear the phrases "swinging over" and "spades" without thinking about black people think they're in a position of moral superiority.
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It's funny how the guy who has a history of repeated racist comments feels like he can chastise others about moral superiority.
 
sir drinks-a-lot said:
It's funny how the people who can't hear the phrases "swinging over" and "spades" without thinking about black people think they're in a position of moral superiority.
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Ooh, another "Liberals are the real racists!" dunk! Don't let the fact that it's brought to us by the folks who welcome self-identifying Nazis at their political conferences distract from how truly epic it is!
 
shemp said:
Eric von Schitzinpantz says the African-American vote is "swinging over to Donald Trump in spades".
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If it were any other candidate, I would be willing to assume the "in spades" terminology was just a minor slip-up. After all, I can see someone who grew up in a sheltered environment not recognizing various racial slurs.

But Donald Trump has a long track record of racist actions and rhetoric (from not renting to minority applicants as a landlord, to suggesting you can't trust an american-born judge just because he had mexican heritage.) And you have to assume others in the trump Klan (like Eric) have been similarly indoctrinated.

It still might have been a slip-up on his part, but it still helps highlight the racism coming from him and the MAGAchud.
 
sir drinks-a-lot said:
I haven't made a single racist comment.

But if the first thing you think of when hearing the word "spade" is black people, I think you may have a problem.
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You do realize that his comment was ABOUT black people supposedly flocking to Trump "in spades". That's what makes his comment so questionable.

If he said "Trump's legal problems are piling up in spades", people would not have made the the connection.
 
Segnosaur said:
If it were any other candidate, I would be willing to assume the "in spades" terminology was just a minor slip-up. After all, I can see someone who grew up in a sheltered environment not recognizing various racial slurs.

But Donald Trump has a long track record of racist actions and rhetoric (from not renting to minority applicants as a landlord, to suggesting you can't trust an american-born judge just because he had mexican heritage.) And you have to assume others in the trump Klan (like Eric) have been similarly indoctrinated.

It still might have been a slip-up on his part, but it still helps highlight the racism coming from him and the MAGAchud.
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Let us not forget the whole "my African American" bit.
 
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