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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 3

Walz reacting to the description of Puerto Rico and Latinos

When you have some a-hole calling Puerto Rico ‘floating garbage,’ know that that's what they think about you. It's what they think about anyone who makes less money than them… I want every Puerto Rican in Philadelphia and Reading and across the country to see this clip
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Hinchcliffe replied

These people have no sense of humor. Wild that a vice presidential candidate would take time out of his “busy schedule” to analyze a joke taken out of context to make it seem racist. I love Puerto Rico and vacation there. I made fun of everyone…watch the whole set. I’m a comedian Tim…might be time to change your tampon.
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Link

https://twitter.com/x/status/1850641658599399587
 
alfaniner said:
One thing I noticed is that he's actually pronounced "Kamala" correctly, the few times I've heard him say it.
But enough with "The xxxxx-est in the history of our country!"
I saw that bit with the guy doing the racist jokes. I'd never seen or heard of him before but it did strike me as a (failed) standup routine. Like, much of the audience looking at each other -- "Should we laugh?"
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"Are we... the baddies?"
 
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angrysoba said:
I think it is some reference to a claim about trans stuff and putting tampons in men's toilets.
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I suspect referring to menstruation in a negative manner is revealing of the speakers' psychological issues about women. Misogynists frequently possess a horror or disgust for female biology, and thus employ references to it as insults.
 
TragicMonkey said:
I suspect referring to menstruation in a negative manner is revealing of the speakers' psychological issues about women. Misogynists frequently possess a horror or disgust for female biology, and thus employ references to it as insults.
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They do that too. In fact, I am sure many of the people who like it when Trump or Hinchcliffe refer to "Tampon Tim" have literally no idea or care where it comes from but just think "Ewwww, tampons!"
 
That rally at Madison Square Garden is genuinely very disturbing. The more I see of it, the more I just think that these morons got carried away into ripping off the mask and revealing the full fash instincts underneath. I only hope that whoever it is might have been lulled into thinking they might vote for Trump is slapped hard back into reality (metaphorically speaking) by this bunch of racist, sexist, thoroughly elitist weirdos and conspiracy theorists promising to be as nasty as they can get away with and realizing they need to vote the other way to prevent it.
 
49/48 for Trump/harris in emerson poll
emerson allowed "undecided" so it went 3% undecided. there seem to be low information voters in PA in the last month, and Kamala got +4 from them
“There is a significant age divide among voters: voters under 50 favor Harris, 57% to 39%, while voters over 50 break for Trump, 57% to 41%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

“Voters who decided over a month ago favor Trump 51% to 47%, while voters who made up their mind within the past month/week lean toward Harris 52% to 45%,” Kimball noted.
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emersoncollegepolling.com

October 2024 Pennsylvania Poll: Trump 49%, Harris 48% - Emerson Polling

Casey (D) 47%, McCormick (R) 46% New Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania polling shows 49% of Keystone…Full Release & Results
emersoncollegepolling.com emersoncollegepolling.com
 
Every news hour now begins with "ONLY (X) DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION". I think that on Sunday CNN will probably put up a countdown timer to when it starts, then that Tuesday a timer to when the polls close in each time zone. At least that part will be over in 8 days. (See, I did it too!) It's still maybe not as bad as having to see those interminable Medicare Part C promos for another six weeks.
 
alfaniner said:
Every news hour now begins with "ONLY (X) DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION". I think that on Sunday CNN will probably put up a countdown timer to when it starts, then that Tuesday a timer to when the polls close in each time zone. At least that part will be over in 8 days. (See, I did it too!) It's still maybe not as bad as having to see those interminable Medicare Part C promos for another six weeks.
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I still haven't seen a single ad for any candidate or any issue except for the sports betting one. I'm in MIssouri, and apparently that is the hugest issue ever.
 
jimbob said:
Concerning that the WaPo is not endorsing a candidate, which is a break from its usual approach.

Self censorship in case of a Trump win
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Nazis of a feather flock together. And despite all his shaping, Bezos is little different from T****y.

And of course Thirsty Lewis (his current right hand man at the paper) is an out and out far-right demagogue.
 
Tero said:
49/48 for Trump/harris in emerson poll
emerson allowed "undecided" so it went 3% undecided. there seem to be low information voters in PA in the last month, and Kamala got +4 from them

emersoncollegepolling.com

October 2024 Pennsylvania Poll: Trump 49%, Harris 48% - Emerson Polling

Casey (D) 47%, McCormick (R) 46% New Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania polling shows 49% of Keystone…Full Release & Results
emersoncollegepolling.com emersoncollegepolling.com
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Except it isn't an Emerson poll. It's an Emerson College/RealClearPennsylvania poll.

This survey was funded by RealClearPennsylvania.
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If you wanna know how RealClearPennsylvania leans, the top headline on their website (which I'm not linking to, because **** them) is to a RealClearPolitics story titled "Could Walz’s Progressive Education Policies Doom Harris?" It's a GOP local outreach organization.

Moreover,
The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
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Now, they give you the polling numbers they received, which add up to the total exactly. So the weighting must come in during the respondent selection process. That is, they asked their survey sources, Aristotle and CINT, to give them the ratio of people they wanted to match their voting model. It's 50/50 and it's always been 50/50 because they're asking for a 50/50 ratio of voters because that matches what it was last time. It doesn't give you any information about how current sentiment might be diverging from the model because it bakes in confirmation bias from the get-go. Not to mention the inscrutability of the respondent sources. "Have you previously done a political survey during this election cycle?" really ought to be asked.
 
Beelzebuddy said:
Only for a little while, until his next change.


This is what gets me. Not even Trump bothers showing up to Trump rallies anymore, yet the polls are still 50/50. It doesn't add up.
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As I said elsewhere, with all the polling corrections they've incorporated all the republican disenfranchisement* efforts into their estimates. If the Democratic Party's get out the vote activities beat the disenfranchisement activities then the polling companies will be in for a right land.

But then again, in a legitimate election, T****y wouldn't have the ghost of a chance.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
As I said elsewhere, with all the polling corrections they've incorporated all the republican disenfranchisement* efforts into their estimates. If the Democratic Party's get out the vote activities beat the disenfranchisement activities then the polling companies will be in for a right land.

But then again, in a legitimate election, T****y wouldn't have the ghost of a chance.
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They're not incorporating anything. The survey age demographics match PA 2020 exit polling perfectly. They're literally just modeling a do over of the last election. As if nothing at all has changed since then.
 
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