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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 2

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George: "Hey Barack, it's George. Hey question. When take office can I stay in the White House guest room?"
Barack: "George, I don't know if that's a great idea."
George: "Oh come on. I won't get in the way and I don't eat much. You won't even know I'm there."
Barack: "George, what is this about?"
George: "...."
Barack: "GEORGE."
George: "Okay... I wanna see what the Secret Service does if two Presidents get into a fistfight on the White House lawn. I bet they turn on each other."

"The Red Phone" Webcomic.
 
plague311 said:
I wonder if it's different for a current POTUS rather than an ex-POTUS.

I don't believe the actual POTUS can give secret service the day off. I have nothing to support that.
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Under 18 USC 3056 the President and Vice President (and President-elect and Vice President-elect) may not decline protection. All others may decline.
 
And Trump, who likes to pose as the great friend of the blue collar worker. launches a savage attack on unions in the discussion with Musk.
 
Since I haven't seen anyone talking about it, I'll assume all the pundits and strategists and moneyballers have set down and crunched the numbers and decided it doesn't change any of the sane Electoral College Scenarios but one thing to note is the EC Vote allotment gets changed after each census and 13 states had their number of EC votes adjusted and the 538 EC votes get shuffled around.

California, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and Michigan all lost on EC Vote

Texas gained two new EC Votes.

Florida, North Carolina, Montana, Colorado, and Oregon all gained one new EC vote.
 
dudalb said:
And Trump, who likes to pose as the great friend of the blue collar worker. launches a savage attack on unions in the discussion with Musk.
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Yes, he was praising Musk for firing strikers. Firing people for striking is against the law.

The United Auto Workers union has filed unfair labor practice charges against Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk after the two discussed on social media about Musk supposedly firing striking workers.

In documents filed Tuesday with the National Labor Relations Board, the union alleges that both men interfered with workers who may want to exercise their right to join a union. The NLRB said it would look into the charges, which are a request for the agency to investigate.
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But during a discussion about government spending, Trump praised Musk for firing workers who went on strike. The UAW contends this could intimidate workers for the Trump campaign or at Tesla who might want to join a union.
“You’re the greatest cutter,” Trump told Musk. “I look at what you do. You walk in and say, ‘You want to quit?’ I won’t mention the name of the company but they go on strike and you say, ’That’s OK. You’re all gone.'”

Musk said, “Yeah,” and laughed while Trump was talking.
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https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ald-trump-elon-musk-x-twitter-politician-tech

Marina Hyde is good.

Steven King referred to her column on this indirectly on χitter..

Hard to pick a paragraph to show the flavour of it but here's one in the middle.

Either way, making it audio-only felt less than futuristic. I saw someone say it could have been an email, but it would have worked best as a fax. It wasn’t so much like the tech revolution hadn’t happened, more like the Industrial Revolution hadn’t happened. Hopefully as time wears on, Musk will upgrade his server to a spinning jenny. In the meantime, he would like you to believe that there was some sort of cyber-attack on his ancient looms. He explained to frustrated users that X Spaces had been subject to a “massive DDOS attack”, which strangely didn’t affect any of the rest of X. This is definitely the most self-sabotaging excuse since Katy Perry claimed her recent plastic feminism single was “satire” and “a reset for my idea of feminine divine”. After Monday night, the haters need to understand: Elon’s aural frotting of Trump was satire, and a reset for his idea of masculine divine.
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JoeMorgue said:
Since I haven't seen anyone talking about it, I'll assume all the pundits and strategists and moneyballers have set down and crunched the numbers and decided it doesn't change any of the sane Electoral College Scenarios but one thing to note is the EC Vote allotment gets changed after each census and 13 states had their number of EC votes adjusted and the 538 EC votes get shuffled around.

California, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and Michigan all lost on EC Vote

Texas gained two new EC Votes.

Florida, North Carolina, Montana, Colorado, and Oregon all gained one new EC vote.
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It is absolutely huge. Under the 2020 electoral college distribution, if Trump won all of the states he won in 2020 (which seems likely) plus Georgia and Pennsylvania, Harris would have exactly 270 votes. But under the new distribution, Trump would have have exactly 270 votes and win.

Pennsylvania is the Keystone State. Pennsylvania will basically determine the election. It is extremely unlikely that Harris can win without PA. If Trump gets GA and PA, there are no other plausible states to take away even a single electoral vote. The best option would be to win NC, but if Harris loses GA and PA it is not likely she then wins NC.

Trump has a few more options if he loses PA. Biden won all of the six swing states (AZ, NV, GA, PA, MI, VA, WI). He could get something like GA, MI and NV. Or WI MI AZ. He can't do it with GA AZ NV. He would have to get at least one rust belt state.

That is why I found it a bit surprising that Harris didn't pick Shapiro. Prior to Biden dropping out there were some state polls that matched various Democrats vs Trump. Walz was not included. In Arizona, Kelly was -2, about the same as Biden. In Pennsylvania, all of the other polled about the same as Biden around -4. Except Shapiro. He came in at a whopping +10. That should translate into at least a few percentage points in PA for a Harris/Shaprio ticket. That would nearly lock in the election. But maybe that poll was a fluke. I assume they did independent polls and found that those big numbers didn't hold up.

Luckily, voting rules in Pennsylvania are solid and haven't been corrupted like Georgia. I would expect that after the Democratic convention both sides will primarily target PA.
 
bruto said:
Maybe we could set up a Gofundme site or something like it: Buy Trump a first class ticket to Moscow!
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Actually he might not be welcome there, since he has soured on Putin and has made some critical staments about Putin lately.
Trump is 100% transactional, he has decided that Putin cannot really help him much and is dropping Putin.
 
And TRump does seem to be getting more and more delusional every day. That is going to have a huge impact on the swing voters. Of course it won't bother the cult members, but the swing voters, yes.
 
DevilsAdvocate said:
It is absolutely huge. Under the 2020 electoral college distribution, if Trump won all of the states he won in 2020 (which seems likely) ...
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I'll take that bet - he's going to lose in all of them, plus a whole lot of other states he won in 2020.

2016 was the Facebook election, ably driven by Robert Mercer, 2024 is the TikTok election, ably driven by kids who were too young to vote 8 years ago:

Separately, the vast majority of top performing TikTok post mentioning Harris at the start of August were positive while the vast majority of the top performing videos mentioning Trump were negative, the analytics platform Zelf found.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...rris-swing-state-polls-millennilal-gen-z.html

It is their future!
 
thaiboxerken said:
I think the secret service may be obligated to arrest Trump, or keep him from fleeing.
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Maybe, just maybe if there is a warrant out for his arrest or some court action requiring him to not leave the country. (But, in those cases the subject usually is required to surrender their passport).

But, if he simply loses the election and nothing else changes (including his current status in all his current cases) he could tell the Secret Service to get off his plane, and take off. (Or more likely to get out of Mar a lago and then leave for the airport by the back door.
 
dudalb said:
Actually he might not be welcome there, since he has soured on Putin and has made some critical staments about Putin lately.
Trump is 100% transactional, he has decided that Putin cannot really help him much and is dropping Putin.
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Trump took a bullet to the ear recently, from a homegrown American maniac. Is even Trump so stupid that he would publically piss off one of the few men on Earth who really could arrange for a real, actual, factual, expert professional assassin?

Yes, I think he is that stupid. Of course it would be crazy for Putin to do that, but guess what? Putin may be crazy, or at least headed that way if his stab at a new Russian empire keeps failing.
 
MSNBC host Chris Hayes talked about Trump's extreme views. He is not going to be told anything by handlers. His instinct on the Musk interview was to be as extreme as possible. A few odd things...like Teslas OK now... but he really believes his brand is to be extreme. It is now easy to run rallies. All the old views and anything he can do to insult. But it's not working at all ahsinst Kamala
 
[FONT=&quot]“If they get those two new states and pack the Supreme Court, they'll get what they want," McConnell continued. "By the way, on packing the Supreme Court ... you may know this already. It's unconstitutional."[/FONT]
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Segnosaur said:
That might seem like the obvious choice of destination.

Only problems with that are:

- It might make some of the MAGAchud think "Wait, maybe there really was something about Russia helping Trump get elected". Harder to argue "Russia Hoax" when you're hanging out with Putin

- Would Putin really want him? Trump wouldn't be of much use at that point, and I can't think of any benefit he would get from hosting Stubby McBonespurs.
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The idea that MAGAts might realize they were played the whole time and got it wrong about the nature of Trump is very endearing. It fills my heart with joy to think we can have such innocent fantasies in the face of overwhelming evidence that they will twist anything that Trump does into proof of the evil of the libs.
 
a_unique_person said:
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Pixel42 said:
He actually said that? The lack of self-awareness is staggering.
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Court-packing has traditionally meant adding Supreme Court justices (which is presumably what McConnell is talking about) although people often assume it means filling vacant positions with your own partisan judges.
 
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