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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 2

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lionking said:
One day a post of yours will make sense. But I doubt I will live that long.
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I must be a bit weird then. To me, his posts tend to make sense. They may be filled with nasty BS and transparent falsehoods, but that's different from not making sense.

varwoche said:
It's thoughtful of Samson to validate you...

What in the name of clueless gibberish?
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Clueless, perhaps. Rooted in BS and fallacy, fairly certainly. Not gibberish.

In this case, he's trying to claim that America's infrastructure was built by the far right. Fundamentally, of course, that's rather inane. The further to the right one goes on the spectrum, the more it is about the individual. The further to the left one goes on the spectrum, the more it is about the community as a whole. Public infrastructure is all about benefiting the community, not the individual. To poke at an easy contrast in how that plays out in practice, as we saw plenty well during Trump's last term, when Republican had a trifecta, the far right was busy trying to sabotage America's public infrastructure and sell it all off to the highest bidders. During Biden's term, when Democrats had a trifecta (barely), there was immense investment in repairing and building America's infrastructure to be more prepared for the future.
 
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Sort of surprised in the discussion we had here about the possiblity of replacing Vance on the GOP ticket, people act like it would be unprededented. They forget McGovern dumping Eagleton back in 1972.
 
dudalb said:
Sort of surprised in the discussion we had here about the possiblity of replacing Vance on the GOP ticket, people act like it would be unprededented. They forget McGovern dumping Eagleton back in 1972.
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You're right. It's not a big deal. IMV, McGovern made a mistake. He should have viewed it as an opportunity.
 
jimbob said:
I'm still impressed by Vance saying that he'd got criticism from white supremacists for his wife, "but" she's a good person, not "and I take that as a badge of honour and that just shows how hateful an ideology it is because she's a good person, and **** them"
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Yea, it's rather weird for a person to be racist and still marry "one of the good ones." Racists do strange stuff.
 
Samson is implying that working-class people are "far right."

It is a very weird claim, since it isn't based on any fact.
 
Samson said:
Be comforted.
I know what I am trying to say.
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Great! Then you're just the man to tell us what Trump was saying here because they make no sense to us!

The Continental Army suffered a bitter winter of Valley Forge, found glory across the waters of the Delaware, and seized victory from Cornwallis of Yorktown. Our army manned the air, it rammed the ramparts, it took over the airports, it did everything it had to do.
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“So I said, let me ask you a question and he said, nobody ever asked this question and it must be because of MIT, my relationship to MIT. Very smart. He goes, I say, what would happen if the boat sank from its weight? And you’re in the boat and you have this tremendously powerful battery and the battery is now underwater and there’s a shark that’s approximately 10 yards over there, by the way, a lot of shark attacks lately, do you notice that a lot of shark? I watched some guys justifying it today. Well, they weren’t really that angry. They bit off the young lady’s leg because of the fact that they were, they were not hungry, but they misunderstood what who she was? These people are. He said there’s no problem with sharks. They just didn’t really understand a young woman swimming now. It really got decimated and other people do a lot of shark attacks. So I said, so there’s a shark 10 yards away from the boat, 10 yards or here, do I get electrocuted if the boat is sinking? Water goes over the battery, the boat is sinking. Do I stay on top of the boat and get electrocuted or do I jump over by the shark and not get electrocuted? Because I will tell you he didn’t know the answer. He said, you know, nobody’s ever asked me that question. I said, I think it’s a good question. I think there’s a lot of electric current coming through that water. But you know what I’d do if there was a shark or you get electrocuted, I’ll take electrocution every single time.”
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"It's like in golf... A lot of people - I don't want this to sound trivial - but a lot of people are switching to these really long putters, very unattractive... it's weird. You see these great players with these really long putters, because they can't sink three-footers anymore. And, I hate it. I am a traditionalist. I have so many fabulous friends who happen to be gay, but I am a traditionalist."
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"The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive."
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The Continental Army suffered a bitter winter of Valley Forge, found glory across the waters of the Delaware, and seized victory from Cornwallis of Yorktown. Our army manned the air, it rammed the ramparts, it took over the airports, it did everything it had to do.
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We can add the Revolutionary War to the long,long, list of things Trump does nothng about, leaving out the incomprehensible last section of that statement.
For Startes, Valley Forge was the winter of 1777/1778 and the Crossing of hte Deleware and the victory at Princeton took place on Christmas Day 1776. Granted, the Conintinal Army was in a bad winter camp also in 1776, but it was not Valley Forge.
And that is what truly puzzles me about Trump. That so many people worship a man who is just plain so ignorant.
 
Trump will speak to a convention of BLack Journlaist tommorow. That is going to go well....
 
Trump's nephew, Fred Trump (son of DT's older brother) has written a book "All In the Family: The Trumps and How We Got That Way." Fred says he grew up very close to his uncle who was his trustee after his father died. He also says he personally heard Donnie use the "N" word twice. He also says Donald is "atomic crazy" and will gladly help to get Harris elected.
On GMA, ABC News reporter Aaron Katersky asked Trump what “the Trump way” is.
“Complex and sometimes cruel,” Trump said. “Every family has their crazy uncle. My uncle Donald is atomic crazy, and he has put his mark on the family history.”

Asked by Katersky what he meant by “atomic crazy,” Trump replied, “It means he does things that, even as much as I know him, when he’s out there now, I sort of shudder and say, Is this the same guy I knew? What’s making him change? What got him this way?”

Trump, the father of a disabled son, said that he visited the White House in 2020 to advocate for people with disabilities. His uncle, he said, told him, “These people, all the expenses. They should just die.”
Trump also said that when he was about 10 years old, he was visiting his grandparents when he heard his uncle screaming in the driveway of the house. Donald Trump’s convertible Cadillac Eldorado had been vandalized, his nephew said.

“He used the N-word twice, just saying who he thought probably had done this,” Trump said.

Trump said he doesn’t believe that his uncle is a racist, but that he “uses [people] as props, and when he gets what he needs out of them—votes—he’ll cast them aside.”
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Karl Rove, who is a bastard but a pretty shrewd when it comes to politics thinks Harris is pretty much in the driverse seat.
 
New Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll

Michigan
Harris 53%-Trump 42%

Arizona
Harris 49%-Trump 47%

Georgia
Harris 47%-Trump 47%

Nevada
Harris 47%-Trump 45%

Wisconsin
Harris 49%-Trump 47%

Pennsylvania
Trump 50%-Harris 46%

North Carolina
Trump 48%-Harris 46%
 
Andy_Ross said:
New Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll

Michigan
Harris 53%-Trump 42%

Arizona
Harris 49%-Trump 47%

Georgia
Harris 47%-Trump 47%

Nevada
Harris 47%-Trump 45%

Wisconsin
Harris 49%-Trump 47%

Pennsylvania
Trump 50%-Harris 46%

North Carolina
Trump 48%-Harris 46%
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So compared to 2020, loss of PA and GA uncertain. Still too close. But great gains compared to recent months. Trump won't be happy.
 
I know it's much more fun to only consider the polls that show what you want them to, but, according to Nate Silver, the Morning Consult poll has a 3-percentage-point Democratic bias. Below, I have computed the raw percentage difference for each state in Andy Ross's post (first line of colored figures for each state) and the the percentage difference after applying Nate Silver's bias correction (second line of colored figures. After applying the correction, Harris leads in only one state.

New Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll (quoted by Andy Ross):

Michigan
Harris 53%-Trump 42%
Harris +11
Harris +8

Arizona
Harris 49%-Trump 47%
Harris +2
Trump +1

Georgia
Harris 47%-Trump 47%
Tie
Trump +3

Nevada
Harris 47%-Trump 45%
Harris +2
Trump +1

Wisconsin
Harris 49%-Trump 47%
Harris +2
Trump +1

Pennsylvania
Trump 50%-Harris 46%
Trump +4
Trump +7

North Carolina
Trump 48%-Harris 46%
Trump +2
Trump +5
 
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