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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 2

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Dr.Sid said:
Indeed. 538 site is very good in aggregating polls. But it's mostly useful on national level. Per state there is too few polls to do that well.
Also consider 538 averages all have +-5% statistical errors.
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Huh?
 
Andy_Ross said:
Quote:
Elon Musk X
@elonmusk

Criminals vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic Party, because it is the soft-on-crime party.
Therefore the obvious incentive of the Democratic Party is to maximize the number of criminals who can vote.
The Dems are also always pushing to allow all felons to vote in federal elections, because they know it helps them win.
This is a fact, not conjecture.
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Elon posted
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Notice how Musk fails to provide any supporting evidence of this "fact"? Perhaps that's because it is conjecture?

It's not like Musk has a history of making stating false "facts". Oh, wait....

In the last three months, Musk has flooded X with dozens of posts that speak to a conspiracy theory about Democrats using immigrants to grab power
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In the last three months, Musk has flooded X with about two dozen posts that speak to that central conspiracy theory.

Here’s a sampling of his false or misleading posts about immigrants and voting, fact-checked:

Musk said “illegals are not prevented from voting in federal elections.” (Federal law says only U.S. citizens can vote in presidential and congressional elections.)

Musk said automatic voter registration includes “no citizenship verification” and ballots are mailed out, “making fraud traceability impossible.” (States take steps to ensure registrants are U.S. citizens and election officials take steps to prevent voter fraud. Ballots cast by noncitizens are extremely rare; violators could face jail time or be deported if they are in the country illegally.)


Musk said migrants will give Democrats more seats in Congress, a step toward one-party rule. (Two reports published before the 2020 census projected that not counting immigrants in the country illegally would basically have been a wash, favoring neither party.)

Musk said a bipartisan border security bill’s long-term goal was “enabling illegals to vote” and would do the “opposite of securing the border.” (The bill included funding for border agents and security. It did not give people in the U.S. illegally voting power nor did it include a path to citizenship.)
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Tha Elon Musk supports Trump is not surprising. He's as crazy as Trump is.
 
Andy_Ross said:
Roseanne Barr: They eat babies. It’s true.

Tucker Carlson: so it's not just the dogs and cats?

Barr: Everybody thinks I’m crazy. I’m not crazy. They love the taste of human flesh & they drink human blood

Tucker: I think you have some authority on this

Video in link

https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1840035865852100959
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Barr has diagnosed mental problems including dissociative personality disorder, PTSD and had a traumatic brain injury from a suicide attempt at 16 which landed her in a psychiatric hospital for 9 months. I think we can discount anything she says.
 
Andy_Ross said:
Trump says

" Joe Biden became mentally impaired. Kamala was born that way. She was born that way. And if you think about it, only a mentally disabled person could have allowed this to happen to our country."

Video in link

https://x.com/Acyn/status/1840118070037361072
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My favorite from that speech:

"Venezuelan killers are occupying our towns, armed with MK-47s...I know that gun, I've become an expert on guns!"

Yep, don't worry gun owners--Trump will protect your MK-47s! :D
 
Trump again revealed his ignorance of history and economics in his speech at a town hall meeting yesterday in Michigan where he claimed:

"In the 1890s, our country was probably the wealthiest it ever was because it was a system of tariffs," Trump, the GOP's presidential nominee, said. "We had a president, you know McKinley? Remember Mount McKinley? He was a very good businessman, and he took in billions of dollars at the time. We were a very wealthy country at the time."
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The trouble with his claim? Read on:
Contrary to Trump's portrayal of the 1890s as an era of unprecedented wealth, the United States experienced a severe economic depression from 1893 to 1897. Journalist Paul Farhi noted on X on Friday that during this period, "Banks failed; the unemployment rate was more than 10 percent for five years."
The Depression of 1893 was one of the most severe economic downturns in American history. According to the Economic History Association, unemployment rates exceeded 10 percent for half a decade, a level of sustained high unemployment only seen again during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
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This period was marked by violent strikes, political upheavals, and far-reaching social and intellectual developments, making the Depression of 1893 a watershed event in American history.
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In addition, McKinley wasn't a businessman: he was a soldier during the Civil War and then became a lawyer.

I wonder if the Mango Moron know that McKinley was assassinated six months into his second term ?
 
Stacyhs said:
Trump again revealed his ignorance of history and economics in his speech at a town hall meeting yesterday in Michigan where he claimed:



The trouble with his claim? Read on:




In addition, McKinley wasn't a businessman: he was a soldier during the Civil War and then became a lawyer.

I wonder if the Mango Moron know that McKinley was assassinated six months into his second term ?
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Trump and "know stuff" are mutually exclusive.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Indeed. 538 site is very good in aggregating polls.
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Was. Nate Silver left the site and now it's run by ABC News. If I have it right, they still have some of Nate's data infrastructure and 2020's model, but according to Nate they're not using it right.

Nate now does his own thing at silverbulletin on substack. Which is interesting but articles reporting from HIS model are paywalled. I don't begrudge him that, his work is worth paying for, but it also means less reach.
 
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