Gulliver Foyle
Philosopher
It's the Heil, their election models consist solely of asking Paul d'Acre who he wants the paper to support today.
Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 2
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It's the Heil, their election models consist solely of asking Paul d'Acre who he wants the paper to support today.
CarbShark
Muse
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Does anyone think Iran doesn't already know there would be consequences for doing that?
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Steve
Penultimate Amazing
Has a rather unique way of putting words together, doesn't he. Reminds me of a relative well into the final throes of dementia.
Andy_Ross
Penultimate Amazing
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I deleted it, I realised it was 4 years ago, not from his current round of rallies.
Steve
Penultimate Amazing
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
Yes, but that is assuming the leadership of Iran is rational..a huge and possibly unwarranted assumption.
Anyway, it won;t hut to remind them of that..but not a childish tantrum like what Donnie gave us.
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
Oh, I bet the people at the pentagon are thrilled with the depth of his miliatry knowledge.
TragicMonkey
Poisoned Waffles
They go up to him and say "Sir," they say, "you are a brilliant genius" and they never had, it was never, they hadn't seen it before because when I, when Hillary was president, Nancy Pelosi, they, just the worst, just nasty, nasty women and Obama, he, they, I, I, I, the biggest and best, they said "Sir," they, I, I, and now you can buy a Trump watch for $100,000, it's beautiful, it might not look like the picture, no refunds.
Stacyhs
Penultimate Amazing
The "Weave" at its best. Genius, pure genius.
Nate Silver's last polls update:
"The forecast is still in toss-up range, but we’re getting to the point where we’d say we’d rather have Harris’s hand to play."
"The forecast is still in toss-up range, but we’re getting to the point where we’d say we’d rather have Harris’s hand to play."
catsmate
No longer the 1
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Meanwhile, back in the Real World....
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows Ms Harris leading by 7 percentage points in Nevada, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, and 2 points in North Carolina. The two are tied in Georgia.
Dr.Sid
Philosopher
Meanwhile, back in the Real World....
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows Ms Harris leading by 7 percentage points in Nevada, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, and 2 points in North Carolina. The two are tied in Georgia.
Oh, from the real world !? What a relief
LiteBright
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Meanwhile, back in the Real World....
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows Ms Harris leading by 7 percentage points in Nevada, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, and 2 points in North Carolina. The two are tied in Georgia.
Do you have any specific criticism of the forecasts Dr. Sid shared? I'm curious to understand why you think they don't represent reality whereas the info you posted does.
Surely it couldn't be just that they are telling you what you don't want to hear. That would be MAGA-level logic.
Steve
Penultimate Amazing
It's an interesting quirk of (not exclusively) American politics that a person on any side of an issue can find, among the myriad polls, one or more polls that will say exactly what they want them to. Reality is rarely a prime consideration.
Paul2
Philosopher
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Nate Silver taught me in 2020 that a single poll is pretty much meaningless. Different polls can vary widely, so the results have to be interpreted or combined with other polls, which was/is his gig.
Meanwhile, back in the Real World....
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows Ms Harris leading by 7 percentage points in Nevada, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, and 2 points in North Carolina. The two are tied in Georgia.
Dr.Sid
Philosopher
Indeed. 538 site is very good in aggregating polls. But it's mostly useful on national level. Per state there is too few polls to do that well.
Also consider 538 averages all have +-5% statistical errors.
The simulation on 538 is pretty neat. But it does not predict outcome, it says probability of a win. So 60:40 is still just a dirty coin being used for a toss, not 20% lead.
And again, in 2016 Biden had 8-10% national lead.
My butt remains clenched.
Also consider 538 averages all have +-5% statistical errors.
The simulation on 538 is pretty neat. But it does not predict outcome, it says probability of a win. So 60:40 is still just a dirty coin being used for a toss, not 20% lead.
And again, in 2016 Biden had 8-10% national lead.
My butt remains clenched.
shemp
a flimsy character...perfidious and despised
Wasn't the nominee somebody named Clinton?
TragicMonkey
Poisoned Waffles
Who? I don't know her. *does ice cold Mariah Carey stare*
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