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2020 Presidential Election

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Donald Trump Jr. tweeted

@DonaldJTrumpJr
Given what we have seen from Big Tech over the last 72 hours, if you don’t think Free Speech and your First Amendment rights are “on the table” this election you haven’t been watching.

It’s truly scary... don’t let them take your liberty!
 
Trebuchet said:
James Woods is, of course, nucking futz!
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He's also one of those people who thinks a vast pinko conspiracy and not his lack of talent is what is stopping him from getting beefy parts in Hollywood.

I wish. If there were any lefties in charge in Tinseltown there'd be some chance of films getting greenlighted on their merits.
 
DevilsAdvocate said:
I think that there are. I think a large portion of the undecided voters are Republicans who don't like Trump.

I think there are a lot of Republican voters torn between party and person.

Vote for the idiot Trump or the terrible Democrat Biden?

The polls for some swing states have significant undecided; enough to change the state within certain margins.

How those voters pull the trigger on the ballot, torn between the lesser of two evils, could change the election.
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I'm sure there are some undecided, but if you look at it closely, they mostly do not end up voting and even those that will are unlikely to break significantly one way or another.
 
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GlennB said:
I don't quite understand that probability. My online UK bookie has Trump at 6/4, which translates as a 40% chance of winning. Other bookies have similar odds.
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You're forgetting about stuff like parimutuel and other tricks the turf accountants have to make sure they make bank while us punters lose.
 
The Don said:
Actually, on 21 October 2016, fivethirtyeight.com were giving Donald Trump a 13.5% chance of election. This increased steadily over the next two weeks, peaked at 35% on November 6th before subsiding to just under 30%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

In other words, he's about where he was at this stage in 2016 :(
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Beelzebuddy said:
The polls were extremely swingy in 2016. No one liked either candidate much, it was a race to the bottom.

The same is not the case this year.
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To that point, compare 538s 2016 and 2020 timelines:
2016.jpg
2020.jpg

At the end of July, Trump actually led Clinton for a brief moment. Biden's lead has been remarkably stable and increasing since the beginning of September. They've also updated the model from what they learned in 2016.

2016 and 2020 just aren't the same dynamic.
 
I also think Trump's "Screw it try something new" subtext worked better when we there was no incumbent running. It's easier to take a risk when both your choices are going to be something new.

Again hindsight is 20/20, nothing is certain, no we can't be sure and all that jazz dutifully acknowledged, if Trump had ran against Obama in 2008 even if he the same weird rise to political prominence and cult of personality and had still been "as Trump" and all that he would have lost bad.

I mean to be fair I'm still both A) petrified that I might be wrong and B) fully admitting that I could be wrong (The problem with Trump not being popular is he got as far as he did while being equally unpopular) but it does look like 2020 and 2016 are shaping up to be different beasts.
 
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JoeMorgue said:
I also think Trump's "Screw it try something new" subtext worked better when we there was no incumbent running. It's easier to take a risk when both your choices are going to be something new.
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Trump 2016: What have you got to lose?

Trump 2020: What else have you got to lose?
 
Emails threatening Florida voters to "vote for Trump or else!" linked to overseas servers

Dozens of voters in a heavily Democratic county in Florida and across several states reported receiving emails on Tuesday purporting to come from a right-wing group threatening to "come after" them unless they vote for President Trump.

Democratic voters in Alachua County, Florida, began receiving the email on Tuesday morning, and voters in Alaska and Arizona also reported receiving the message. Early voting began in Florida on Monday. The emails appeared to come from the right-wing group The Proud Boys, and showed a "from" address of [email protected].

"We are in possession of all your information (email, address, telephone… everything)," the message stated. "You are currently registered as a Democrat and we know this because we have gained access into the entire voting infrastructure. You will vote for Trump on Election Day or we will come after you. Change your party affiliation to Republican to let us know you received our message and will comply. We will know which candidate you voted for. I would take this seriously if I were you."
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We're all going to be a little nervous and scared until the waveform finally collapses and we know for certain if 2016 was weird one off anomaly or the harbinger of things to come, especially given how much the "Nobody thought he was really going to win" and the shocked reaction that "owned the libs" is such a core part of his victory narrative.

Yeah I know how polling works. Yeah I trust the polls. I understand this in my high functioning, logical, reasoning brain.

But my gut, my feelings, my lower reptilian brain knows that you can go on Youtube and find a billion compilation videos of "LOOKIT THE LIBS BREAKING DOWN ON ELECTION NIGHT WHEN TRUMP WON!" and the still scares me.
 
Republican Congressmen call for investigation into Biden's use of a chartered Amtrak train for his campaign.
They aren't happy that just anyone can charter a train apparently.

Bush chartered an Amtrak train to campaign along the SoCal coast in 2000
House GOP chartered a train for it's retreat to Greenbrier in 2018

Letter GOP leaders sent to Amtrak:
https://republicans-transportation.house.gov/uploadedfiles/10-20-20_amtrak_letter.pdf
 
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The Don said:
It's started :(

Looking at fivethirtyeight it seems that President Trump is starting to pick up support. He's narrowed the national poll gap, the approve/disapprove gap and Joe Biden's victory probability is down to 87% from 88% and the tie is back in play.

They're tiny, tiny gains, but President Trump has been going backwards for weeks. I think it's too little, too late but if there really are 5% undecided voters who could suddenly decide to vote for President Trump then he still has a significant chance of winning the election without having to resort to the courts or jiggery-pokery.
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Just wait until the damning NYT Oct surprise makes the rounds. Check back in 2 days.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Trump Tweets

GIANT RED WAVE COMING!
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"GIANT RED WAVE, ATTACK!"

johnnysokko2.jpg
 
Red Leader: All wings check in.
Red 3: Red 3 standing by.
Red 6: Red 6 standing by.
Luke Skywalker: Red 5 standing by
Red Buttons: Red Buttons standing by.
Redd Foxx: Redd Foxx standing by.
Big Red Gum: Big Red standing by.
[camera zooms out to show a Russian submarine floating with the squad of X-Wings]
Red October: [in Sean Connery's voice] Red October standing by.
Helen Reddy: Helen Reddy standing by.
Simply Red (Mick Hucknall): [Entire band is in one X-Wing cockpit] Simply Red standing by.
 
Dread Pirate Roberts said:
To that point, compare 538s 2016 and 2020 timelines:
View attachment 43338
View attachment 43339

At the end of July, Trump actually led Clinton for a brief moment. Biden's lead has been remarkably stable and increasing since the beginning of September. They've also updated the model from what they learned in 2016.

2016 and 2020 just aren't the same dynamic.
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Also IMHO there is less room for surprise. In 2016, Trump was variable X. Unknown. He's all but that now.
 
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