2020 Presidential Election

[Skeptic Ginger]

So what is the Narrative for a Trump win?

Are there still huge pools of untapped undecided voters?

No evidence there is. Trump keeps saying his silent majority are all going to vote on election day.

Does everyone lie and votes Trump but tells pollsters that they vote Biden?

or will it be a case of Blue Voters being really bad at using mail-in ballots or having voting ID?

I just don't see what scenario would make me believe that Trump won fair&square.

No.

All mail in voters are subject to screwing up like not signing the form.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

... There could also be a major gaffe by Biden, or there's still time for an "October surprise". Those things get less likely as time goes on, but right now, they can't be ruled out.

Too late. Very few people are undecided.

What is still up in the air is the potential for legit ballots to be rejected.

Trump's claims about illegal voting are being rejected by the mainstream news. Fox, not so much. And be careful, Sinclair owns more and more broadcast stations and they slip right wing dishonesty into their stations.

So there is still the potential for problems.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The thing is that people may say that they're not voting for President Trump and they may even intend to walk into that polling station and cast their vote for Biden, or write in another candidate but when they're actually in there they change their mind back and vote GOP.
I've done this myself, fully intended to vote for another party but then actually voted for the party I almost always vote for. I rationalised it as voting for anyone other than one of the two major parties in this part of Wales was a wasted vote but in truth it was more to do with habit and feelings of guilt that I was somehow being a class-traitor.

I don't think there are very many people in this scenario.

 

[Firestone]

In case you wonder why Trump is running against Lesley Stahl, Dr Fauci, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry's bike (yes, yes ) and many others.

13 days till election day, and Trump still has no clear message about Biden.

At his rally yesterday in Erie, PA:

Trump's prepared texts warn that Biden is a radical who will make various extreme and destructive changes to people's lives.

Ad-libbing Trump warns that Biden is so boring that if Biden wins, "nobody's gonna be interested in politics anymore."

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1318708251651956737

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Yes, but they are not pure yes-men: they showed that they can make their own decision, but didn't do so here.

They did?????

At least Roberts seems to be resisting politicizing the court.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

"And in other news Trump took half his remaining campaign money to Vegas and lost it all on blackjack after telling advisors 'Don't worry, I have a system' and then took the second half to a horse racing track and bet it all on the horse that peed the most before the race started, also losing everything."

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Pat Robertson reports that he has been told by God that Trump will win reelection ... and it will bring about the beginning of the End Times. https://bit.ly/35gnxV5

OMG if that were true.

But I think not.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I doubt his premises, but his conclusion is probably not far off.

That God wants Trump to win????? Maybe I am misreading your post.

I would think the followers are going with the usual: sky daddy will fix it. ...

Trump loses. ...

He would have but he has a motive we can't know. He wants us to believe. This is a test of our faith.

Pat's prophecy:

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post...win-reelection-then-the-end-times-will-begin/

It's creepy.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

James Woods tweeted
The Biden/Harris campaign will go down in history as the oddest anomaly imaginable. These two have literally hidden from the press and the American people for the entire campaign. Aside from massive mail fraud how could they expect to be elected, if they are completely invisible?

One has to wonder how someone's brain filters out just how much Biden has been out there publicly and out there campaigning. He's only stopped for a day or two to prepare for the next debate.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The only scary thing is how much further and deeper we are into the post fact world now than we were in 2016.

And in 2016 someone shot up a pizza parlor because they thought Hillary had a child sex dungeon in and that's pretty far down the post fact hole.

I think that is true, but I also think there are people rising up to take sanity back. 60:40 or better Biden wins.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I just saw that Limbaugh's lung cancer is fatal. Let's hope he passes before November 3rd. I guess Florida is going to get a little bit bluer. Nice of him to die in a swing state, the stupid junkie ****.

I hate to say it, but the world will be better off without him. Hopefully no one will take his place.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

I don't think there are very many people in this scenario.

I think that there are. I think a large portion of the undecided voters are Republicans who don't like Trump.

I think there are a lot of Republican voters torn between party and person.

Vote for the idiot Trump or the terrible Democrat Biden?

The polls for some swing states have significant undecided; enough to change the state within certain margins.

How those voters pull the trigger on the ballot, torn between the lesser of two evils, could change the election.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I think that there are. I think a large portion of the undecided voters are Republicans who don't like Trump.

I think there are a lot of Republican voters torn between party and person.

Vote for the idiot Trump or the terrible Democrat Biden?

The polls for some swing states have significant undecided; enough to change the state within certain margins.

How those voters pull the trigger on the ballot, torn between the lesser of two evils, could change the election.

I have no knowledge as to the leaning of undecided voters. But almost all reports are that the number of undecided voters is small.

 

[The Don]

It's started

Looking at fivethirtyeight it seems that President Trump is starting to pick up support. He's narrowed the national poll gap, the approve/disapprove gap and Joe Biden's victory probability is down to 87% from 88% and the tie is back in play.

They're tiny, tiny gains, but President Trump has been going backwards for weeks. I think it's too little, too late but if there really are 5% undecided voters who could suddenly decide to vote for President Trump then he still has a significant chance of winning the election without having to resort to the courts or jiggery-pokery.

 

[timhau]

It's started

Looking at fivethirtyeight it seems that President Trump is starting to pick up support. He's narrowed the national poll gap, the approve/disapprove gap and Joe Biden's victory probability is down to 87% from 88% and the tie is back in play.

They're tiny, tiny gains, but President Trump has been going backwards for weeks. I think it's too little, too late but if there really are 5% undecided voters who could suddenly decide to vote for President Trump then he still has a significant chance of winning the election without having to resort to the courts or jiggery-pokery.

Until something indicates otherwise, I'll look at the minuscule day-to-day changes as random fluctuation. As for the approval numbers, you can see from the approval numbers on 538's main page when they incorporate the latest Rasmussen poll to those numbers - like they've just done. And Trump is still almost 11 points underwater.

 

[Stacyhs]

I hate to say it, but the world will be better off without him. Hopefully no one will take his place.

His departure will leave a vacuum and nature abhors a vacuum. It may not be immediate, but someone equally disgusting, or worse (if that's possible) will take his place.

 

[Firestone]

It's started

Looking at fivethirtyeight it seems that President Trump is starting to pick up support. He's narrowed the national poll gap, the approve/disapprove gap and Joe Biden's victory probability is down to 87% from 88% and the tie is back in play.

They're tiny, tiny gains, but President Trump has been going backwards for weeks. I think it's too little, too late but if there really are 5% undecided voters who could suddenly decide to vote for President Trump then he still has a significant chance of winning the election without having to resort to the courts or jiggery-pokery.

You should put some money on Trump in the prediction market.

It's win-win for you.

If Trump wins, you're devastated he won, but at least you'll more than double the amount you played with within two weeks. Nice ROI, nice consolation.

If Biden wins, who cares about that small amount of money you lost.

(While I wouldn't actually do this, I heard about people doing this in 2016 .)

 

[angrysoba]

That God wants Trump to win????? Maybe I am misreading your post.

I would think the followers are going with the usual: sky daddy will fix it. ...

Trump loses. ...

No, his premises are that:

Premise 0: God exists
Premise 1: God talked to him (this is not true: See Premise 0)
Premise 2: God wants Trump to win (not true for the same reason as the first)

Conclusion: A Trump victory will bring about the end times.

That bit could be true.

 

[The Atheist]

The Economist's model has dropped Trump's chance of winning to 7%.

Optimistic odds. 0.7% maybe.

 

[angrysoba]

It's started

Looking at fivethirtyeight it seems that President Trump is starting to pick up support. He's narrowed the national poll gap, the approve/disapprove gap and Joe Biden's victory probability is down to 87% from 88% and the tie is back in play.
They're tiny, tiny gains, but President Trump has been going backwards for weeks. I think it's too little, too late but if there really are 5% undecided voters who could suddenly decide to vote for President Trump then he still has a significant chance of winning the election without having to resort to the courts or jiggery-pokery.

No need to hyperventilate over slight fluctuations in the model.