Indeed.
A "fun" scenario would be that, for whatever reason, the election is thrown to Congress, while the Democrats retake the Senate.
In that case, Trump probably becomes President, and Kamala Harris Vice President.
Last edited:
-
Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more
2020 Presidential Election
- Thread starter Skeptic Ginger
- Start date
- Status
A "fun" scenario would be that, for whatever reason, the election is thrown to Congress, while the Democrats retake the Senate.
In that case, Trump probably becomes President, and Kamala Harris Vice President.
angrysoba
Philosophile
Yes, as they say in the podcast it is less than a one percent chance of a tie.
Stacyhs
Penultimate Amazing
Hoooo boy. Now, that would make for an interesting situation.
More seriously, this is from a Twitter thread by Dave Wasserman (from The Cook Political Report) in August:
Yesterday, he tweeted an encouraging update:
"Update: we're midway through October, and still no sign of a "shift" at the district level. If anything, seeing increasingly horrific data for Trump in high-college suburban seats."
(bolding mine)
Yesterday, he tweeted an encouraging update:
"Update: we're midway through October, and still no sign of a "shift" at the district level. If anything, seeing increasingly horrific data for Trump in high-college suburban seats."
(bolding mine)
Last edited:
timhau
NWO Litter Technician
I could see that leading to a political version of the Parrot Sketch.
"No, no, no, he is not dead! He's ... he's resting! Remarkable man that Stable Genius, isn't he? Beautiful plumage!"
Stacyhs
Penultimate Amazing
I think Trump overplayed his hand. His unique- I'm not a politician, I'm a successful businessman- schtick wore off after 4 years for an awful lot of people. His pathological lying, narcissism, and hateful, bigoted, bullying, fear mongering and childish antics is what they see. But more than anything, his horrific handling of the coronavirus epidemic has revealed his complete incompetence and unsuitability for the position of POTUS. Many of his former subjects have come to realize that the emperor has no clothes.
timhau
NWO Litter Technician
Exactly, a scenario where the Democrats do well and pick up lots of state delegations and Biden performs to the lower end of the predictions just isn't very credible.
I find the 12th Amendment curious, but then again, in the late 1700s/early 1800s popular vote probably really wasn't a thing. But right now I have a hard time seeing how it doesn't work against the popular vote winner, who already has a chance of getting shafted by the overrepresentation of small states in the EC.
DevilsAdvocate
Philosopher
- Joined
- Nov 18, 2004
- Messages
- 7,686
The 538 projection is that the House will have State majorities of:
26 Republican
22 Democrat
2 Tied
Pennsylvania has one very close race that could make it tied, reducing the Republican vote to 25.
Just to look at odd possibilities:
That means it may be possible that Trump gets only 25 votes in the House. We could have President Pelosi for two years. Then in 2022 one tied state flips to a House Republican majority and Trump comes back as President like a B-movie horror monster that never dies.
DevilsAdvocate
Philosopher
- Joined
- Nov 18, 2004
- Messages
- 7,686
It is not just the chances of a tied vote. It is also the chance that if there are only a few tipping states, Trump can contest the ballots. If those states botch or delay the recount, intentionally or otherwise, he could not have those votes flipped to him but could have the courts invalidate that state's electoral votes. By that means, he could reduce Biden's vote count under 270 and send it to the House.
Fortunately, the States mostly likely to tip the electoral vote count under 270 for Biden are rust belt states with mostly Democratic Governors and Secretaries of State controlling recounts.
But under Federal law a State must resolve election controversies according to the State law in place on election day and by a certain date. Republicans could foil that and ensure that the laws are not followed or that it is not possible to resolve the issue by the required date. That would surely result in the courts ruling that the State cannot send any electors to the Electoral College.
That could invalidate votes for Biden that would put him under 270 votes and send it to the House.
Not very likely. But certainly possible. And Trump's rhetoric for the past two years indicates that he fully intends to pursue that strategy if the election result presents that option.
Stacyhs
Penultimate Amazing
I think we're all doing a lot of nail biting "OMG What Ifs!" mostly because Trump is ◊◊◊◊◊◊* crazy and we feel so uncertain about just how far he and his enablers like McConnell will go. If you had told us even 2-3 years ago that we would have a situation like this, we'd have laughed at it. This is a good example of the severe damage that Trump has done to this country.
angrysoba
Philosophile
But who would be Veep? It would presumably have to not include Pence or Harris, right? Would it just be next in line of succession?
If the Senate manages to elect a Vice President, while the House doesn't elect a President, the Vice President becomes Acting President until the House elects a President. (Twentieth Amendment, section 3)
House of Cards spoiler:
Bears repeating:
Last edited:
angrysoba
Philosophile
No, I meant in the event that Pelosi becomes president.
(All explained in the 5th season of House of Cards, where Claire, elected by the Senate, becomes Acting President, while Francis continues his shenanigans until the House finally elects him.)
Spoiler alert!
Adapted my post.
Naval Diplomat
Student
I still think it's way to early to get wrapped up in the what-ifs. Trump Loyalists are starting to jump ship now and act like Republicans again.
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
Is it just me or has Trump not been saying the election is rigged or going to be rigged much lately? He's actually talking about losing and openly begging suburban women to vote for him. He seems to have grasped that he's not going to win.
bonzombiekitty
Graduate Poster
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2011
- Messages
- 1,848
This goes to the argument that I've been making for months, even before the pandemic hit. PA is a key state for Trump. He barely won it in 2016. There's nothing to suggest he has attracted voters to his side, so any shift in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (generally more college educated suburbs) towards the democrats are going to be a major problem for him. All indications show a big shift towards the democrats in those suburbs.
Last edited:
As I've said before it's not so much that we don't know how far they will go, it's that we have to find out in real time and if they go "too far" we can only find out after the fact when it's too late to do anything about it.
It's not the question "Will Trump steal the election" is the idea that the only way to find out is to wait and see if Trump tries to steal the election and if we're right.. we'll he's stolen the election and then it's too late.
It's like we're the control group in a test of finding Democracy's breaking point.
Last edited:
Beelzebuddy
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- Jun 10, 2010
- Messages
- 10,944
I'll believe it when they make him walk the plank.
timhau
NWO Litter Technician
Serious question: How can we tell?
- Status