2020 Presidential Election

[JoeMorgue]

Serious question: How can we tell?

If you notice there's been and uptick of "leaks" of Republicans trash talking him "behind the scenes opps didn't know the mic was on" kind of ways.

But that's face saving and political "out" making, not an actual change in loyalty.

 

[KayBur]

As I've said before it's not so much that we don't know how far they will go, it's that we have to find out in real time and if they go "too far" we can only find out after the fact when it's too late to do anything about it.

It's not the question "Will Trump steal the election" is the idea that the only way to find out is to wait and see if Trump tries to steal the election and if we're right.. we'll he's stolen the election and then it's too late.

It's like we're the control group in a test of finding Democracy's breaking point.

The elections will be 100% influenced by the impact on the population through all possible loopholes. Facebook played a good role in the last elections. It is not a fact that social networks and the coronavirus panic will not affect these elections in any way. Agree, people are easiest to manage through their fears and interests.

 

[Craig4]

This goes to the argument that I've been making for months, even before the pandemic hit. PA is a key state for Trump. He barely won it in 2016. There's nothing to suggest he has attracted voters to his side, so any shift in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (generally more college educated suburbs) towards the democrats are going to be a major problem for him. All indications show a big shift towards the democrats in those suburbs.

Clinton also lost Pennsylvania due to poor turn out by Black voters. That doesn't seem to be much of a problem this year.

 

[bonzombiekitty]

Clinton also lost Pennsylvania due to poor turn out by Black voters. That doesn't seem to be much of a problem this year.

Clinton lost because of a large host of reasons. Her loss was so slim, that you could likely change any one and PA flips. With Trump not seeming to try to appeal to additional voters, it's why I've been pretty bullish on PA flipping this year from day 1.

 

[Aridas]

Just because -

If you feel like it, take a look at the Biden ad for Democats.

 

[Meadmaker]

"Update: we're midway through October, and still no sign of a "shift" at the district level. If anything, seeing increasingly horrific data for Trump in high-college suburban seats."

I live in a "high college suburban seat", which votes heavily Democratic. I compare signage to previous years.

8 years ago, I say a fair number of Obama signs, and a few Romney signs. Four years ago, I saw almost no signs for anyone. This year, there is an amazing proliferation of signage, almost all of it pro-Biden or anti-Trump. There are a few Trump signs thrown in, but not many. Fewer than there were for Romney.

I don't know exactly what it means. I think it means that people really, really, hate Donald Trump.

But that could also mean that the people who like him are just even more reluctant to speak out, so I won't be confident in any results until the networks announce Florida, Pennsylvania, and some other swing states, including my state of Michigan.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Just because -

If you feel like it, take a look at the Biden ad for Democats.

He has to pander to his base:

 

[TurkeysGhost]

He has to pander to his base:

[qimg]http://www.cognitivedissident.org/images/20041123-catsaredemocrats.jpg[/qimg]

Biden pandering is cringey, but innocuous. Trump panders to his base by leading mob chants to lock up political enemies.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Biden pandering is cringey, but innocuous. Trump panders to his base by leading mob chants to lock up political enemies.

True. I'll take eye rolling saccharine over "Oh it's like Pink Floyd's the Wall but without the actual good music or social commentary" any day.

I do wish politicians of all stripes would stop trying to whole "Lookit young folks! Wouldn't this make an excellent... what is that... oh yes meme things you are all so on about?" but that's just a personal preference.

 

[Horatius]

I still think it's way to early to get wrapped up in the what-ifs. Trump Loyalists are starting to jump ship now and act like Republicans again.

If you notice there's been and uptick of "leaks" of Republicans trash talking him "behind the scenes opps didn't know the mic was on" kind of ways.

But that's face saving and political "out" making, not an actual change in loyalty.

This is what gives me the most hope. It's a certainty that these guys are paying a lot more attention to a lot more polls than we are, and a lot of them seem to have concluded that Trump is likely to lose. They all know how petty Trump is, and how he'll punish anyone who was "disloyal" to him during the election. If they thought he had even a 25% chance of winning, none of these cowards would risk crossing him.

 

[Delvo]

The wall is going up, I've seen it. We pulled out of the Iran deal. Taxes were lowered which has meant more money in my pocket. Drug prices, specifically insulin, are much lower than before, again more money in my pocket. We are now energy independent. My gasoline is less than $2.00 per gallon and I even filled up a few times this year at $0.99/gal. He's cleaning out the swamp in DC though it seems very deep and still needs more work. No new wars, and this was a biggie for me. But the most important reason I will vote for Trump again is because he's not a politician, he's a businessman. He has added money to my pocket and yours too if you're an American whether you like him or not.

But if he does lose this time, stops deteriorating (which is probably impossible anyway), and does run again, he'll win if his opponent is Biden. The only thing saving Biden now is the virus, and in a few years, people will have forgotten about that and will only pay attention to the fact that we'll be four years into exactly the same kind of administration that produced President Trump in the first place.

Do you mean peace, prosperity and health care for all? You mean that administration?

Your accuracy rate on those claims is the same as ChrisBFRPKY's... oops, no, slightly worse because (s)he did put in one or two true things.

The party that won three million more votes than Trump?

Exactly. It should have been a lot more than that, so, such a tiny excuse for a margin of victory (that didn't really win) is a failure... not just as a technicality in the rigged system, but by the numbers. Did you think I would think that sounded like a success? You shouldn't be satisfied with, nevermind bragging about, essentially a tie with somebody who was already back then the most unpopular excuse for a candidate the country had ever had.

if Biden beats Trump this time around, it's impossible to imagine that anybody will be pining for the good old days of Orange Man in four years.

That depends on the Democrats' behavior during his Presidency. He, and others of his kind like Pelosi & Schumer, show every sign of planning to stick to what they were doing during the Obama years, when they not only set us up for Trump but also threw away a thousand other seats along the way.

I ask myself the Reagan question when considering a President's performance: "Am I better off now than I was 4 years ago?" The answer for me is "Yes definitely." How about you? Are you better off than you were?

Actually I am, but I'm also aware of the fact that general trends over the whole country are different from the individual exception that is my own life (and that Presidential actions had nothing to do with how my life has improved recently... in fact a big part of it was getting away from somebody like him on a smaller scale and being around people as different from him as possible).

 

[Safe-Keeper]

This is what gives me the most hope. It's a certainty that these guys are paying a lot more attention to a lot more polls than we are, and a lot of them seem to have concluded that Trump is likely to lose. They all know how petty Trump is, and how he'll punish anyone who was "disloyal" to him during the election. If they thought he had even a 25% chance of winning, none of these cowards would risk crossing him.

You know, it is interesting that they sound so defeated. They don't act like they're setting the stage for accusations of a rigged election as they were in 2016, they sound, and act, like they're about to lose.

I don't dare hope that Trump will just give in if/when Biden wins, but I can't help but feel a little bit hopeful. Maybe the GOP fears the consequences from the people if they try to steal the election, what with the US being the powderkeg it currently is?

 

[Craig4]

Just because -

If you feel like it, take a look at the Biden ad for Democats.

This is a clever trick by Biden. Trump will mock him for the cat add which violates the first rule of all American politics, "Never **** with the cat people". The onslaught of the crazy cat people will be withering and put the final nail in the coffin of the Trump campaign.

 

[timhau]

That depends on the Democrats' behavior during his Presidency. He, and others of his kind like Pelosi & Schumer, show every sign of planning to stick to what they were doing during the Obama years, when they not only set us up for Trump but also threw away a thousand other seats along the way.

The way I see it from abroad is that there were two things that opened the door for Trump. The first was the prolonged infighting among the klown kar riders in the Republican primary, the second was the Democrats' insistence that it was Hillary's turn. The first made Trump a candidate back when he had the support of about 35% of primary voters but was nobody's second choice; the second gave him a shot in an election where a bland, boring and personable would have been enough for a sure win.

Of course, once the door was opened, Putin held it open long enough for Trump to haul his fat ass in.

 

[Tero]

The 538 projection is that the House will have State majorities of:

26 Republican
22 Democrat
2 Tied

Pennsylvania has one very close race that could make it tied, reducing the Republican vote to 25.

Just to look at odd possibilities:

That means it may be possible that Trump gets only 25 votes in the House. We could have President Pelosi for two years. Then in 2022 one tied state flips to a House Republican majority and Trump comes back as President like a B-movie horror monster that never dies.

Trump will be in so much trouble as soon as he leaves office, that in 2 years his health will be poor. Trump can also be impeached a second time, so he won't be able to hold federal office. Throw in Pence into the mix as well.

 

[jimbob]

It is hardly scientific, but I find this very convincing.

https://xkcd.com/2030/

Yup

 

[jimbob]

I diagree. I question if 16 years old are mature enough to be intelligent voters. At times I think lowering the age to 18 was a mistake for the same reason.

Brexit suggests that isn't the problem.

And Trump won amongst the 50+ and stronger amongst the 65+ age groups.

 

[jimbob]

Doubt it, unlike some ex-presidents Trump has zero value out of office.

No, you look after traitors once they ask for shelter, to encourage others.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

True. I'll take eye rolling saccharine over "Oh it's like Pink Floyd's the Wall but without the actual good music or social commentary" any day.

I do wish politicians of all stripes would stop trying to whole "Lookit young folks! Wouldn't this make an excellent... what is that... oh yes meme things you are all so on about?" but that's just a personal preference.

Me too. Not sure who it's supposed to appeal to. I'm pretty sure people younger than myself were rolling their eyes at calls to "pokemon-go to the polls" in 2016.

I suppose if you have nothing substantial to offer young people, pandering is all that's left. Not that it matters much, since young people don't really vote.

 

[acbytesla]

I think you're right. His kind never groom a successor. There is no successor to Trump because his kind only see a successor as a threat.

He's mentioned his son as a successor. Weee!