2020 Presidential Election

Status
Not open for further replies.
The Don said:
In Presidential Elections since 1980 that seems to be the case - and with Democratic voters.

Bill Clinton and Barack Obama - rock stars

Hillary, Gore, Carter, Mondale, Kerry, Dukakis, doubtless lovely people, many, most or all of whom would have made perfectly satisfactory presidents, but IMO they lacked the wow factor that would have turned out the vote.

OTOH, Republicans seem to like personable dopes.

Reagan, Dubya, Trump all managed to convince Republican voters that they were the kind of person they would like to spend time with - George HW was an outlier. OTOH Dole, HW (second time), McCain and Romney all came across as smart but somewhat unapproachable.
Click to expand...

I think this is a case of "over-fitting" the data. Al Gore and Hillary Clinton received more votes than their Republican rivals so it can't simply be a case of voters being turned off by "non-rock stars". You also have to factor in other variables such as the electoral college, or party strategy.

Besides, is Trump "personable"?
 
angrysoba said:
I think this is a case of "over-fitting" the data. Al Gore and Hillary Clinton received more votes than their Republican rivals so it can't simply be a case of voters being turned off by "non-rock stars". You also have to factor in other variables such as the electoral college, or party strategy.
Click to expand...

You're right, but a proper "rock star" candidate can blow through all of that so that it doesn't matter any more whereas a "worthy" candidate fails to inspire enough support and leaves themselves susceptible to the vagaries of the Electoral College and/or party strategy.

angrysoba said:
Besides, is Trump "personable"?
Click to expand...

Republicans and Republican-leaning independents overwhelmingly seem to think so.
 
Interesting titbit from Nate Silver about the polling of Registered Voters versus Likely Voters

Other good news for Biden: Marist's poll showed him doing 1 point *better* among likely voters than registered voters. Same was true in their FL poll. Pollsters often switch from RV to LV after Labor Day, which sometimes helps Republicans, but doesn't seem to be helping Trump.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1303677332822134787
Click to expand...
(bolding mine)
 
I saw the Fox timelapse and a thought hit me that I was watching America under four (or more!) more years under Trump. Which was probably LP's intent.
 
Odd campaign sign.

Reminds me of the Noli Food Truck sign which had the letters N and O in
squares above the letters L and I in squares. I had to think about that one
for a while. I eventually I came up with the word, Cannoli, because the letters
look like they're in a can.

In this case you have the words, Person, Woman, and Man, which logically
flow around a common theme of gender. Now we have a puzzle. Obviously
the words, Camera and TV, must logically have a theme as well, and we must
choose the next word. I think I'll go with Radio.

Maybe now I can fall asleep.
 
The "parasites" ad against Graham isn't good. For one thing, a lot of what it shows aren't parasites; they're decomposers. But also, for a lot of its running time, it isn't clear which person it's calling a parasite. It's making almost equal cases for both.

Still, though, at least they're giving us examples of what it would look like if the Republicans had any real opposition from people who act like they want to actually defeat them. Until the Lincoln Project came along, most Americans had forgotten how to even imagine such a thing, after so many years of watching the only other party around define itself as the party of not even trying.
 
Solitaire said:
Odd campaign sign.

Reminds me of the Noli Food Truck sign which had the letters N and O in
squares above the letters L and I in squares. I had to think about that one
for a while. I eventually I came up with the word, Cannoli, because the letters
look like they're in a can.

In this case you have the words, Person, Woman, and Man, which logically
flow around a common theme of gender. Now we have a puzzle. Obviously
the words, Camera and TV, must logically have a theme as well, and we must
choose the next word. I think I'll go with Radio.

Maybe now I can fall asleep.
Click to expand...
Did you somehow miss Trump's interview with Wallace? The Lincoln Project has an abbreviated version. For the full experience, search "Trump wallace interview" on YouTube :) .
 
Tolls said:
Why is it odd?
Click to expand...


It’s not like all the others. I’ve seen one for Bloomberg, two for Biden,
and one for Bernie among the signs for local candidates in people yards.

Come to think of it, I have not seen any advertising from the major campaigns
on television nor have I heard anything on the radio, no billboard ads either.
Just a smattering of bumperstickers. If you want campaign ads, you’ve got
to use your imagination.

I guess I’ll build that phased array I’ve been planning and try to get WATE
in Knoxville.


Tolls said:
You do know where that list comes from I assume?
Click to expand...


No, I didn’t.

I type it into google and the next word was Hat. I didn’t expect that.
Sounds a little like someone going on a fishing vacation.

I just read the wikipedia article Montreal Cognitive Assessment test.

Oh, I hate those tests. Around here the doctors ask those questions
of old folks just a few years before they become interesting.

Hm.

I ought make my list of interesting things Trump will do in his second term.


Safe-Keeper said:
Did you somehow miss Trump's interview with Wallace?
Click to expand...


Yes. Around here if you want to see Fox News you drive over
to the restaurants on the highway, or get a satellite dish.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
Interestingly, Biden keeps climbing over at FiveThirtyEight's forecast.

Used to be that Trump had a whole row, six possible outcomes (of the 22 displayed on the screen) where he would win the election, now it's just five out of six.

On a mobile screen, I believe there's far fewer maps, but I noticed a change there, too.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Click to expand...

in short, if Trump doesn't get Florida he's ******.
 
I'm thrilled. The Democrats are sending me mail, even though I'm a registered Republican. Both are funded by the state parties, and target a senatorial race, but down-ticket races matter a lot to the presidential race so I think it's OK to post that here.

I also get to hang up on Trump multiple times each day, which I do to avoid hearing his voice on the answering machine.

Mom's gotten mail too, this one re: the presidential race. It's about registering to vote online, though I'm not sure she's ever been purged. She has dementia, but even so I don't think she'd vote for Trump. Joe Biden was once slightly rude to my father, but I don't think she remembers.

The issue on the Democratic mail was health care. I don't think it's lost on previous Trump voters that Dems want people to have health insurance and Republican's don't. It's an issue where Dems poll well, and Trump is perceived as weak.

Is it normal to have been exposed to so little advertising? I haven't been watching much TV, but direct mailings seems to be lax.

And also: Please tell me Dems are supporting voter registration drives and offering rides to polling places - and telling people where their polling place IS (if that's known yet). Such simple info can really help turnout. I expect Barack and Michelle to be personally knocking on doors and holding rallies! Even virtual ones. Offering free masks saying, VOTE! Postcards sent to every household. I want all the gimmicks they can think of! Is this happening? We're approaching the deadline to register; people need to hear that date and maybe a countdown. A drive to PROTECT YOUR HEALTH - VOTE EARLY!!
 
Also:

I think someone is right that Trump may be using campaign funds to bribe places like Bahrain and the Gulf States to declare peace with Israel. Though the fundies want Armageddon; peace might not be high on their list. Is it true Trump's campaign is in financial straits? I hesitate to believe it because I want to believe it so much. I would not doubt personal kickbacks to come up with dirt agains Dems, true or false.

If there's a way to pare 40 percent support down to 39, it's worth trying, IMO.

Shoot, if their own seats weren't imperiled in the process, I'm not sure a few more GOP senators would be coming out against Trump. It might actually help their campaigns.
 
The Don said:
If Biden simply runs on "Not Trump" then I fear that this will not turn out well :(

If this is the sole message then I anticipate a large number of voters will simply stay at home because they don't like either candidate (and fail to grasp that one candidate is about a billion times worse than the other) and President Trump's base will swing it in his favour.

I've said it many, many, times: Democratic Presidential candidates who have been elected since 1980 have been "rock stars" with charisma and an intoxicating, positive, message.

Bland candidates have been unsuccessful every time. Joe Biden is bland IMO
Click to expand...
I think Biden has charisma. Almost all politicians do, to some extent. He was cuter back in the day, but then, weren't we all? He has empathy, which may turn out to be the new charisma.

Something I just read in Politico caught my eye: The writer thinks Biden needs to admit he still struggles with stuttering. I would not have put that high on the list but it was a fairly cogent argument.

I Observed Joe Biden at Close Range for 20 Years. Here’s How He Wins—and Loses

It's dated, and I don't usually pay much attention to opinions on Politico, just putting it out there since I alluded to it. Among other things he urges Biden to select Mitt Romney as secretary of state.
 
Minoosh said:
.....
Something I just read in Politico caught my eye: The writer thinks Biden needs to admit he still struggles with stuttering. I would not have put that high on the list but it was a fairly cogent argument.
....
Click to expand...

One of the basic strategies to deal with stuttering is to pause before speaking and think through what you're going to say. But that can look like ignorance or confusion. Biden doesn't seem to have any trouble having conversations with people face-to-face. That's a different environment from standing at a podium giving a speech.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom