2020 Presidential Election

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Stacyhs said:
Would you care to give me one single instance where the Democrat candidate has received the minority popular vote but won the election?
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I can see that you want to tweak the system to favor your side, the electoral college has been the system forever, getting a winning candidate or stop crying about losing, doesnt seem that hard.
 
Silly Green Monkey said:
When it ever does, then you can see whether or not they think it's 'dandy'. Until then it's nothing but mudslinging.
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I just read rockysmith76's post over again and I now think that in the original post he's talking about if Biden wins i.e. what will the dems(sic) cry about when Biden wins ergo because the dems is always crying about something. I could be wrong, tho.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
That's from 2017. It's scary to think Trump might win. You find comfort in it?
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Yes, it's scary to think Trump might win. I don't find comfort in that (seemed obvious, but let me state it just in case).

I find some comfort in knowing that I can largely ignore pundits.
 
"LOL well would you be as upset if situation was reversed?"

The situation wouldn't work if it were "reversed" that's the whole point. The Republicans need an unfair system they can manipulate at best, outright cheat at worst. The Democrats don't need too. The Republicans haven't won the popular vote with a non-incumbent President since Bush the senior. It's been 22 years since the American people actually voted a Republican President into office.

"Fairness" as a concept has become a parody of itself at this point.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
"herding"?

What does that mean when it comes to polling?
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Herding happens when (most) pollsters either don't release outliers, or massage their polls to better align with the average poll.

The 2017 French presidential election is a good example.
 
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rockysmith76 said:
I can see that you want to tweak the system to favor your side, the electoral college has been the system forever, getting a winning candidate or stop crying about losing, doesnt seem that hard.
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In other words, no, you can't so you resort to the above nonsense. Fair and democratic elections don't have 'sides'.

Safe-Keeper said:
Feed, troll, don't, and so on.
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True.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
Pity. Seems the Lincoln Project also requires you to be in a US State.

Any other way for a foreign national to make a difference before this election?
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Donate to Trump, then blow a whistle on yourself.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
I do keep reminding myself that while chances are disconcertingly high he'll win another term, there's also a chance he might lose. I suppose we are all just demoralised after the Brexit and Trump victories in 2016, and from seeing his approval rating hold steady at 40-42% despite everything.
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Trump is actually doing really poorly. Biden's lead margin is much higher than Clinton at this point in 2016. Trump's situation in key Rust Belt swing states is even worse. I'm not saying get over confident but he's in a bad way. Also, a 40-42 percent approval rating is a really bad thing for a president going into an election. People fixate on 2016 but seem to forget 2018. Trump lost the suburbs then and you don't really hear anything about Republican's taking back the house. He didn't lose the Senate but it was a much tougher map for Democrats than it is this year.
 
Craig4 said:
People fixate on 2016 but seem to forget 2018.
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Because nothing happened in 2018 and the "Blue Wave! Blue Wave!" narrative is, was, and always will be across the board nonsense.

The opposition party almost always makes gains in the midterm. It's not a symbol of anything. It's a slight re-balancing of the scales following the more popular and passionate Presidential election at best, a political dead cat bounce at worst.

Two years after Barack Obama was elected for his first term the Republicans gained 6 Senate seats, 63 House seats, 6 Gubernatorial Seats, and flipped the balance of power in 20 state legislature houses.

Two years after Barack Obama was elected for his second term the Republicans gained 9 Senate seats, 12 seats, and 2 Gubernatorial Seats.

Two years after Donald Trump was elected for his first term the Democrats lost 2 Senate seats, gained 41 House seats, 7 Gubernatorial Seats.
 
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Check this out:

More Trump voters said they were loyal to President Donald Trump than they were to the Republican Party, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov poll.

Some 49% of Republican and Republican-leaning independents who voted for Trump in 2016 said they consider themselves more supporters of Trump than of the Republican Party. Just 19% said they were more supporters of the party, with another 28% saying they were supporters of both.

About 61% of Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters said that they would be more likely to support Trump over congressional Republicans if they had a disagreement; only 13% said they would side with the party members.
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Holy mother of dog lol.

I know polls aren't everything and I imagine in reality the ones who support both Trump and the GOP is a larger portion than revealed in this paper, but that's a significant chunk of voters even from a cursory survey.

Trumpism is a cult.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Because nothing happened in 2018 and the "Blue Wave! Blue Wave!" narrative is, was, and always will be across the board nonsense.

The opposition party almost always makes gains in the midterm. It's not a symbol of anything. It's a slight re-balancing of the scales following the more popular and passionate Presidential election at best, a political dead cat bounce at worst.

Two years after Barack Obama was elected for his first term the Republicans gained 6 Senate seats, 63 House seats, 6 Gubernatorial Seats, and flipped the balance of power in 20 state legislature houses.

Two years after Barack Obama was elected for his second term the Republicans gained 9 Senate seats, 12 seats, and 2 Gubernatorial Seats.

Two years after Donald Trump was elected for his first term the Democrats lost 2 Senate seats, gained 41 House seats, 7 Gubernatorial Seats.
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You're discounting both the significance of the places where Dems won and the impact of the Gubernatorial seats. Gaining the State Houses in the swing states has nullified the ability of Trump/Republicans to engage in voter suppression. The House seats the Dems flipped were not traditionally swing seats (consider Orange County in California and Pennsylvania).
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
"herding"?

What does that mean when it comes to polling?
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This seems to be a pretty good explanation:

Herding
With the high-stakes surrounding elections, pollsters feel increased pressure to accurately capture who will win an election. Additionally with multiple pollsters releasing results on the same basic questions at about the same time, political pollsters want to avoid being seen as the one firm that got it wrong. To avoid raising questions regarding the accuracy of their results, some political pollsters adjust their findings to match or closely approximate the results of other polls—a practice known as “herding.”

“Herding” specifically refers to the possibility that pollsters use existing poll results to help adjust the presentation of their own poll results. "Herding” strategies can range from making statistical adjustments to ensure that the released results appear similar to existing polls to deciding whether or not to release the poll depending on how the results compare to existing polls.
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Link
 
Craig4 said:
This is just some bull **** Zogby push poll. Of course, what's he's doing is building a counter argument for when he loses and the Democrats point out that the election results matched the polling data. He can now claim to his base that he has alternate polling data.
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I think this is massive overthinking. This belongs to the "Trump is playing 5-dimensional chess" school of thought.

The reason Donald Trump posts the best poll results that he can find is because he believes it makes him look popular. He almost certainly believes the best polls for him and almost certainly believes polls which show the opposite are "fake news".
 
Venom said:
Check this out:



Holy mother of dog lol.

I know polls aren't everything and I imagine in reality the ones who support both Trump and the GOP is a larger portion than revealed in this paper, but that's a significant chunk of voters even from a cursory survey.

Trumpism is a cult.
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It IS a cult. It's a cult of an authoritarian figure. It's no different than we see with religious cult leaders like Jim Jones, David Miscavige or political authoritarian leaders like Peron, Mussolini, Stalin or Franco. If Trump thought he could get away with it, he'd do exactly what Charles I did and dissolve Parliament/ Congress and rule without them. There is no Republican Party...at least as we once knew it. There is only the Trump Party.
 
rockysmith76 said:
I can see that you want to tweak the system to favor your side, the electoral college has been the system forever, getting a winning candidate or stop crying about losing, doesnt seem that hard.
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Your blithe acceptance of the status quo would fade away were your team to be at the same kind of disadvantage.

How is it fair if one side has, say, a 55-45 advantage because of a structural flaw? Dems don't want to reverse the scenario and then enjoy that same advantage; they want an even playing field.

In sports such an imbalance favoring one team would be considered practically criminal, and would be swiftly rectified. Why should it be different in politics?
 
JoeMorgue said:
Because nothing happened in 2018 and the "Blue Wave! Blue Wave!" narrative is, was, and always will be across the board nonsense.

The opposition party almost always makes gains in the midterm.
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True, it is common for the opposition party to do well in midterms...I think a lot of people who are labelling it a "blue wave" are doing so not only because of the number of seats won, but also in the total number of votes cast for democratic candidates. (And had the republicans not engaged in so much gerrymandering and voter suppression, the democrats probably would have picked up even more seats)


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