2020 Presidential Election

Status
Not open for further replies.
I can see that you want to tweak the system to favor your side, the electoral college has been the system forever, getting a winning candidate or stop crying about losing, doesnt seem that hard.

I am a king, chosen by God!

The divine right of kings is a tradition passed down through the ages, and only loser peasants want to change the divine way.

Twas ever thus!

That is your argument.

Care to make a better one?
 
The fact that the Democrats once again insisted on the weakest candidate they could find...
How is Biden a weak candidate? He's a career politician with eight years of President-adjacent experience, who doesn't have the decades of virulent anti-Clinton throw-mud-at-the-wall-until-something-sticks, and he's male so the anti-female-in-power bias won't come into force against him. He's fit enough to not have to get a doctor to lie for him, is capable of reading from a teleprompter AND put in appropriate pauses and emotion because he comprehends the speech he's giving. He knows the party platform and speaks on it when interviewed.
Heck, I'd go even further and say that Biden is probably the BEST candidate the Democrats could have chosen to take on Stubby McBonespurs. (Note I said the best candidate, not the best person to actually BE president...)

- He's a moderate. Statistically/historically being a moderate usually gives an advantage to a candidate. The Republicans are of course resorting to the "Biden is a tool of the radical left", but outside Trump's base, its a difficult case to make. Had the democrats selected Comrade Sanders or Warren? Well, I doubt you'd get as much enthusiastic support from anti-Trump republicans

- Earlier I thought his age would be a detriment, but at this point, it seems to be a benefit, as he is cutting into the republican's base of senior voters (who are generally more reliable voters). And when Trump attacks Biden's age, it seems to have a negative effect on Trump's support with the Seniors

- He has strong support among minority voters. Granted, whomever the Democratic candidate was, they were probably always going to get the majority of black/latino voters. But Biden's support was strongest, so hopefully the Democrats can avoid the problem they had in 2016, when many minority voters decided to just sit out the election

Yes, he does have negatives. (Any candidate would have). But even his worst problem (his reputation for making gaffes) has been at least partly addressed by the Democrat's convention, when they covered his former stuttering problem, and made Biden seem like a sympathetic/empathetic person as a result.
 
If I knew nothing about the two candidates going into the November Election, one single fact should be enough for anyone make a clear decision:

one Party has put out a plan on what they want to do, should they get elected, the other hasn't.
 
He's a career politician with eight years of President-adjacent experience, who doesn't have the decades of virulent anti-Clinton throw-mud-at-the-wall-until-something-sticks, and he's male so the anti-female-in-power bias won't come into force against him. He's fit enough to not have to get a doctor to lie for him, is capable of reading from a teleprompter AND put in appropriate pauses and emotion because he comprehends the speech he's giving. He knows the party platform and speaks on it when interviewed.
A set of basic background stuff that most major-party candidates for President have in common in some form is not a distinction of any of them as better or worse than each other. (And what you started with is seen negatively by a lot of people anyway.)

Heck, I'd go even further and say that Biden is probably the BEST candidate the Democrats could have chosen to take on Stubby McBonespurs. (Note I said the best candidate, not the best person to actually BE president...)

- He's a moderate. Statistically/historically being a moderate usually gives an advantage to a candidate.
Maybe there was some era of history when that was true, but definitely not the one we're in. The only two recent Democrat winners campaigned about how much they were going to change things; the rest who went with the "I'm a competent manager who'll never rock the boat" theme all lost. (Even Gore, who had previously been known largely for pushing environmental issues, went so dull in the campaign that he, Bush, and the debate moderators had a running joke about their answers to most questions usually being "about the same"; literally, those were the words they would say.)

I've seen some resistance to the fact that Obama & Clinton campaigned as lefties (even though it was right there in their campaign slogans & speeches), but, even without that, all you have is a case that only the moderate/centrist approach has been tried lately and its results were mixed. That's not an "advantage".

On top of that, the idea of how that's supposed to work in theory (nevermind the fact that we can't theorize our way out of the fact that it doesn't work anyway) is pulling votes from people who might otherwise have voted Republican. But he has a whopping 5% of self-identified Republicans saying they'll vote for him, which is less than Hillary. (It's also less than Obama either time and he wasn't even trying to go for that angle.) (And that's to say nothing about the fact that when the polls showed Bernie was better at this than Biden was, the bidenistas went all drooly & foamy about how that meant Bernie was evil for attracting the wrong kind of people whom we don't want voting for our side.)

And aside from that, if Biden is a "moderate", then he's the kind of "moderate" whose most enthusiastic and forceful efforts have been to push for massive cuts to Social Security and literally every other assistance program (complete with enraged clarification that he really meant not just SS but everything that helps anybody because the suggestion that he'd limit his attack to just SS was so offensive to him), defend a Republican Supreme Court appointment against sexual harassment allegations, attack a woman for bringing up such allegations, give us a "crime" bill that just harasses minorities, protect segregation, give us new debt law attacking the poor (especially for the crime of trying to get less poor), tell young adults they don't really have any problems and their problems that he helped to create for them are their own fault anyway, openly promise Wall Street not to do anything they wouldn't like, and vote for every war in sight... and who flips his stances on things like Medicare For All after taking bribes from related corporations like medical insurance companies, picked a Wall-Street-approved candidate with a bit of a "law & order" attitude & history who laughed at the idea of not locking up a chunk of the (mostly minority) population for marijuana use, continues to openly downtalk the left at every opportunity between rounds of praising Republicans and talking about how proud he is to "work with" them, and had a convention that featured as many Republican speakers & talking points as they could fit while pointedly shutting out anybody to his left from within "his own party". If that's "moderate", it's a "moderate" right-winger. So he doesn't even live up to what his own alleged angle is supposed to be.

- He has strong support among minority voters.
That was the narrative the media made out of it based on South Carolina. But that was because of SC's older black population, ignoring the not-so-old and the non-black.

Yes, he does have negatives. (Any candidate would have). But even his worst problem (his reputation for making gaffes)...
That's not his worst problem. It's just the one that some of his defenders focus on the most because it's superficial. His biggest problem is that he doesn't stand for anything; there's no argument on issues & policies that he really pushes for. Not even centrist ones. He sits back & waits for questions, then sometimes politicianizes & sometimes answers (and his answers are always to swat down lefty ideas as not worth taking seriously). But he takes no initiative to get people thinking & talking about what he wants to do & why it's important. That's even worse than moderateness/centrism; it's nothingness.

Biden marks a return to stable, sensible government for the people, by the people, and of the people
What he marks is a return to the situation that produced Trump in the first place. That "of-by-for" thing makes a nifty quote but it doesn't describe how things really work or how people perceived them to work when they voted last time to get away from the status-quo.
 
Have We Reached Peak Biden?

I don't need this, sorry for sharing the distress but it can't be ignored.


It's okay. I'm totally into the whole sharing of distress thing.

I looked at the Presidential Polls and noticed that, despite all the wild ups
and downs between polls, polls conducted by the same organization in the
same state consistently showed the same percentage for Biden month after
month. For example, if Biden polled 49% in Michigan in May, then he polled
49% in Michigan in June, and 49% in Michigan in July as well.

My personal theory: Anyone who cannot stand Donald Trump has decided
to vote for Biden. No doubts, no uncertainty, totally committed to getting
that man out of office for good.

You may have also notice a considerable number of undecided voters in those
same polls, around ten percent. Well, Moore mentioned that, so far, sixty million
people will vote for Trump, which leaves me with a puzzle, as I expect sixty five
million votes for Trump at the very minimum.

Who might all those undecided voters be?

Moore calls for Democrats to bring a hundred voters to the polls. But what if,
like in an Asimov novel, all those undecided voters really just look to someone
with an R in front of their name to vote for.

I imagine a cartoon with Moore as the driver saying to the passenger,
"So... Who are you going to vote for in this election?"
 
"LOL well would you be as upset if situation was reversed?"

The situation wouldn't work if it were "reversed" that's the whole point. The Republicans need an unfair system they can manipulate at best, outright cheat at worst. The Democrats don't need too. The Republicans haven't won the popular vote with a non-incumbent President since Bush the senior. It's been 22 years since the American people actually voted a Republican President into office.

"Fairness" as a concept has become a parody of itself at this point.

32 not 22.
 
538 has Biden's margin at 7.7 points. That's the narrowest it's been in a long time.

I'll be damned if I can figure out why though. Recent polling isn't distiguishable from 2 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago.
 
Biden's speech he just gave was excellent. It totally dispelled the "he's got dementia" and "he's weak" nonsense. He was everything that Trump is not.
 
538 has Biden's margin at 7.7 points. That's the narrowest it's been in a long time.

I'll be damned if I can figure out why though. Recent polling isn't distiguishable from 2 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago.

You have to treat political trends like the stock market, the numbers aren't meaningful if you sit there and watch them go up and down, you have to step back and look at trends.
 
Your blithe acceptance of the status quo would fade away were your team to be at the same kind of disadvantage.

How is it fair if one side has, say, a 55-45 advantage because of a structural flaw? Dems don't want to reverse the scenario and then enjoy that same advantage; they want an even playing field.

In sports such an imbalance favoring one team would be considered practically criminal, and would be swiftly rectified. Why should it be different in politics?

At its' extreme, our system could give the Presidency to a candidate with 22% of the vote over another with 78%.
Democrats would be killing it if the imbalance were only on par with 55-45 against.
 
The Electoral College has a 7% failure rate and the failure rate always benefits one side (in modern politics using modern definitions of the parties lest any semantic chowderhead bring Rutherford B. Hayes into this...)

We've had 53 Superbowls. Imagine if, by some quirk in the scoring, ~4 of those Superbowls had been awarded to the team that had fewer points at the end of the game and whenever that anomaly occurred the AFC, team always got the win, never the NFC team.

Yeah... we would have changed that quirk by now. But it's not football, just the continued existence of the country as a stable western style democracy so let's not be dramatic about it or anything.
 
Heck, I'd go even further and say that Biden is probably the BEST candidate the Democrats could have chosen to take on Stubby McBonespurs. (Note I said the best candidate, not the best person to actually BE president...)

- He's a moderate. Statistically/historically being a moderate usually gives an advantage to a candidate.
Maybe there was some era of history when that was true, but definitely not the one we're in.
Actually it is still true.

In 2016, Trump was actually seen as the more moderate candiate

From: Gallup (from 2016)
Donald Trump's political views, in the eyes of U.S. registered voters, are the least conservative of GOP presidential candidates in recent history....with less than half of voters (47%) describing him as conservative or very conservative. ...U.S. voters are most likely to describe Clinton as liberal (31%) or very liberal (27%).

Remember, when Trump came on the scene, he claimed he was against the Iraq war, and was in favor of gay rights. He didn't talk about privatizing social security, but he did talk about closing tax loopholes. Now WE as skeptics can see the lies... but to the more gullible voter? He probably seemed like a moderate.

The only two recent Democrat winners campaigned about how much they were going to change things; the rest who went with the "I'm a competent manager who'll never rock the boat" theme all lost.
First of all, keep in mind that I said that a moderate has an advantage, not that they will always win. Outside factors can still have an impact... scandals, a candidates personality, incumbency, etc.

Secondly, its not just a case of "how moderate is the democrat" but also "how moderate is the republican"... a moderate democrat doesn't really have much of an advantage against a moderate republican.

And as for the 2 recent democratic winners? Yes, Obama talked about "change", and yes, voters viewed him as "liberal", but he was up against McCain and Romney, who were seen as just as conservative as he was liberal, so there was no real advantage for him.

On top of that, the idea of how that's supposed to work in theory (nevermind the fact that we can't theorize our way out of the fact that it doesn't work anyway) is pulling votes from people who might otherwise have voted Republican. But he has a whopping 5% of self-identified Republicans saying they'll vote for him, which is less than Hillary.
First of all, not sure where you're getting your '5%' Republicans for Biden figure from... I've seen figures putting it at around 11%'. (See: Newsweek)

Secondly, you need to look at more than just republicans supporting Biden... you also have independents (who might either be complete fence sitters, or who might lean republican but will entertain voting for Biden.)

Lastly, the issue is not just republicans switching sides... one of the major advantages in picking a moderate is that it is less likely to energize the opposing side's base. The current republican efforts to demonize Biden as a "tool of the left" is not necessarily to appeal to independents and moderates, its to encourage the MAGAchuds to actually get out and vote.
And aside from that, if Biden is a "moderate", then he's the kind of "moderate" whose most enthusiastic and forceful efforts have been to push for massive cuts to Social Security and literally every other assistance program...
Psst... I'm going to let you in on a little secret...

Sometimes, the political environment changes. Yeah, I know... shocking, isn't it.

Oh, and by the way... are you referring to This?

From: Washington Post
Sanders cites a newspaper clip from Jan. 11, 1983, that says, “Biden suggested a gradual increase in the retirement age would help improve the Social Security system.” This was not a controversial position at the time....The broad outlines of the plan was recommended by the National Commission on Social Security Reform and is believed to have strengthened the long-term health of Social Security. Sanders, in 1999, praised the 1983 law an example of bipartisan cooperation.

Biden also at one point tried to freeze social security, but that was not targeted only at social security but also impacted things like the military as well.
...defend a Republican Supreme Court appointment against sexual harassment allegations...
yes he did... and he has actually gone on record indicating that it was a mistake. I doubt he would make the same mistake again.
...give us a "crime" bill that just harasses minorities
Actually Biden's actions as a senator also included funding for firearms background checks, anti-violence against women and addiction treatment.

Oh, and should I mention that Sanders was an eventual supporter of the bill?

See: VOX

...openly promise Wall Street not to do anything they wouldn't like...
Ummmm... Biden has said that he's going to increase corporate taxes. Pretty sure that "wall street" won't like that.

I think I'll just skip the rest of your rants. Its nothing but empty rhetoric.
- He has strong support among minority voters.
That was the narrative the media made out of it based on South Carolina. But that was because of SC's older black population...
Actually he had wide-spread support from black voters across many states, not just south carolina.

From: Politico
Biden neared or exceeded that mark in the South on Tuesday, in Texas (58 percent), Virginia (60 percent), North Carolina (62 percent) and Alabama (72 percent). The results in Texas and North Carolina were especially notable given the prevalence of early voting in those states, where hundreds of thousands of ballots were cast before Biden’s South Carolina surge.

That's not his worst problem. It's just the one that some of his defenders focus on the most because it's superficial. His biggest problem is that he doesn't stand for anything
That's only a problem for people like BernieBros who are detached from reality.

The fact is, Biden has a set of policies... he plans to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy. He plans to spend more on infrastructure and green energy. He want to provide at least some free post-secondary education. The fact that he's not some foaming-at-the-mouth Sanders-type doesn't mean that he will not attempt to follow through with those plans.
What he marks is a return to the situation that produced Trump in the first place. That "of-by-for" thing makes a nifty quote but it doesn't describe how things really work or how people perceived them to work when they voted last time to get away from the status-quo.
You talk about how "things really work", ignoring the fact that all the wonderful plans put forward by someone like Sanders would never ever pass Congress.
 
538 has Biden's margin at 7.7 points. That's the narrowest it's been in a long time.

I'll be damned if I can figure out why though. Recent polling isn't distiguishable from 2 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago.

At this point, national polls are meaningless. It doesn’t matter if more Americans overall approve or disapprove of a candidate, as shown by the 2016 elections. Just pay attention to polling in swing states if you must pay attention to any polls at all.
 
At this point, national polls are meaningless. It doesn’t matter if more Americans overall approve or disapprove of a candidate, as shown by the 2016 elections. Just pay attention to polling in swing states if you must pay attention to any polls at all.

"Trump didn't win America. He won 3 counties in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania." - Some pundit who's name I can't remember.
 
That's not a plan.

Not only is it not a plan, many of them are things he's actively doing things against! For example, "Continue to Lead the World in Access to the Cleanest Drinking Water and Cleanest Air" when he's rolled back environmental laws that protect our rivers and waterways from being polluted. His payroll tax cut proposal would deplete Social Security funding yet he says he would "Protect Social Security and Medicare". He says he would "Bring Violent Extremist Groups Like ANTIFA to Justice" but he makes no mention of violent right-wing extremist groups.

Right-wing attacks and plots account for the majority of all terrorist incidents in the United States since 1994, and the total number of right-wing attacks and plots has grown significantly during the past six years. Right-wing extremists perpetrated two thirds of the attacks and plots in the United States in 2019 and over 90 percent between January 1 and May 8, 2020. Second, terrorism in the United States will likely increase over the next year in response to several factors. One of the most concerning is the 2020 U.S. presidential election, before and after which extremists may resort to violence, depending on the outcome of the election.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-terrorism-problem-united-states
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom