2020 Presidential Election

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The more aware Republicans realize that, post-Trump, the GOP will be lucky to win the Senate in the decade after, nevermind the House or White House.
For them, Trump is the last chance for a GOP government for the foreseeable future.
Four more years to stave off the inevitable reckoning.

I don't see many defecting.
 
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Stacyhs said:
Facts don't matter. And that is so sad. That Trump lies and lies and lies and lies and that doesn't matter is so sad. That he is a sociopath doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a disgusting human being without morals or honor or principals doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a fraud doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a racist and bigot doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a serial adulterer doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That his supporters embrace him for these things is sad. Just so sad.
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"No Comrade you did not see graphite on the roof BECAUSE IT ISN'T THERE. There's only 3.6 roentgens an hour from the feed water, no worse than a chest x-ray. THE REACTOR DIDN'T EXPLODE BECAUSE A RBMK REACTOR CAN'T EXPLODE."
 
angrysoba said:
Yeah, I think that sounds about right to me. It is worth pointing out that when it came to 538, they always gave Trump a higher chance than many of the pollsters and modellers. They argued till they were blue in the face that a 99% chance for Clinton was massively overconfident and that at state level, Trump was always within the margin of error in a number of key states, and that that was highly significant as being on one side of the margin of error in one state likely meant that it could hold true for the other states if the error was systematic.

Also, while Michael Moore needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, I seem to recall that he very much warned that Trump's message resonated far more than the media class realized. I think that could well be true now. While a lot of the media are content to say anyone opposing BLM marches is racist, or that those who see the cops as justified must also be racist etc... I think Trump's message that the Democrats are on the side of riots may also be resonating further than much of the media realizes.

And, no, the facts don't matter. That is a crucial point that Clinton et. al missed in 2016, according to Nathan Robinson (and I happen to agree with him):



Link
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And that's why 538 can go **** themselves.

angrysoba said:
...I think Trump's message that the Democrats are on the side of riots may also be resonating further than much of the media realizes...
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Oh wait ... 538 said that ain't happening ... yet ...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...hurt-biden-the-two-dont-appear-linked-so-far/
 
The Great Zaganza said:
The more aware Republicans realize that, post-Trump, the GOP will be lucky to win the Senate in the decade after, nevermind the House or White House.
For them, Trump is the last chance for a GOP government for the foreseeable future.
Four more years to stave off the inevitable reconning.

I don't see many defecting.
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I don't, nor did I ever see many defecting. The Democrats have to get out and vote this time.
 
The Democrats need to notice that the Republicans don't waste anytime wringing their hands about losing this kind of voter if they attract this kind of voter.

The Republicans nominated a man on his third wife, a man who couldn't walk past a church without bursting in flames and the Evangelical vote didn't suddenly either stay home or jump ship to the Democrats.

The Republicans nominated a man who was a Democrat as recently 2009 and had supporters wearing "I'd rather been Russian Than Democrat" as his ralleys.
 
angrysoba said:
Eh? Why?



No, but I think that it will be part of the Republican strategy to link the two. In fact, it already is.
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Because I can just ignore the Republican strategy (and 538) because facts don't matter. To put it another way, the people who are going to vote for Trump are going to vote for Trump. How many "swing" voters there actually are and can be influenced by Trump/Republican strategy is, I feel, actually quite low. So it's on the Dems to get out and vote.

Or to put it another way another way, The Dems need to start trolling the trolls. **** this, we go high ******


^^^THIS^^^ From JoeMorgue
 
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The fundies and racists have a 20 year + stranglehold on SCOTUS and the Federal Judiciary in their grasp, and with it women’s bodies, health care legislation, freedom of religion, and all civil liberties. A Trump victory will see the first mass emigration in American history.
 
Elagabalus said:
Because I can just ignore the Republican strategy (and 538) because facts don't matter. To put it another way, the people who are going to vote for Trump are going to vote for Trump. How many "swing" voters there actually are and can be influenced by Trump/Republican strategy is, I feel, actually quite low. So it's on the Dems to get out and vote.

Or to put it another way another way, The Dems need to start trolling the trolls. **** this, we go high ******


^^^THIS^^^ From JoeMorgue
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Okay, well I am pointing out that facts don't matter in terms of trying to win the argument.

Of course, it doesn't mean that facts are irrelevant to how you develop strategy, so looking at election modellers such as 538 is still useful, and even if they are not, I think they get closer to the truth than most of their rivals. But as was put forward by Nathan Robinson, it probably helps to have some kind of story - a narrative to counter that of Trump's. Does Biden have one of those?

If you asked the person in the street what Biden's message is, what would they say?

"Biden stands resolutely for....something....build back better...I think....anyway, he's not Trump and that's all that matters!"

If you ask the person in the street what Trump stands for, people will have an idea. Supporters will say, "MAGA!" and opponents will say, "White supremacy!" but either way, people are pretty clear about it.

I expect Trump still dominates the media in a way that Biden does not.

When your average voter goes to the polls and sees the ballot paper and there are two names, they will know Trump. Will they know who Biden is?
 
JoeMorgue said:
The Democrats need to notice that the Republicans don't waste anytime wringing their hands about losing this kind of voter if they attract this kind of voter.

The Republicans nominated a man on his third wife, a man who couldn't walk past a church without bursting in flames and the Evangelical vote didn't suddenly either stay home or jump ship to the Democrats.

The Republicans nominated a man who was a Democrat as recently 2009 and had supporters wearing "I'd rather been Russian Than Democrat" as his ralleys.
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Well, there were quite a few people on these boards and elsewhere who said that Bernie Sanders was the better option because at least he has enthusiastic supporters, like Trump does.

And guess what people on these very boards, opposing Sanders, said?

They said:
1.) Sanders will alienate moderates and centrists.
2.) Sanders supporters and Sanders himself are like the Democrats' version of Trump.
 
The fact that the Democrats once again insisted on the weakest candidate they could find is not the problem they should focus on now. They made their bed of gravel & broken bottles and there's nowhere else to lay down anymore.

The more pertinent problem is the one that could still be changed, hypothetically: the campaign of nothingness. Not only does Biden himself flatly tell us all that he'll do nothing, but their convention also went out of its way to avoid ever mentioning an issue or policy; it was just a bunch of "Good feelings feel good!". The Republican convention kept reminding everybody of the issues and policies they stand for. It included a bunch of falsehoods, but at least it was there. And Trump finally came a bit off from his recent culture-wars obsession that wasn't getting him anywhere in the polls and started returning to the pretense at populism that won for him last time.

One of these parties is trying to win and the other is trying to lose.
 
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Delvo said:
The fact that the Democrats once again insisted on the weakest candidate they could find is not the problem they should focus on now. They made their bed of gravel & broken bottles and there's nowhere else to lay down anymore.

The more pertinent problem is the one that could still be changed, hypothetically: the campaign of nothingness. Not only does Biden himself flatly tell us all that he'll do nothing, but their convention also went out of its way to avoid ever mentioning an issue or policy; it was just a bunch of "Good feelings feel good!". The Republican convention kept reminding everybody of the issues and policies they stand for. It included a bunch of falsehoods, but at least it was there. And Trump finally came a bit off from his recent culture-wars obsession that wasn't getting him anywhere in the polls and started returning to the pretense at populism that won for him last time.

One of these parties is trying to win and the other is trying to lose.
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LOL! Issues and policies? I think you mean FEAR MONGERING.
 
Firestone said:
The only thing giving me some hope right now is Nate Silver's (tongue in cheek) first rule of polling: "Almost all polling errors occur in the OPPOSITE DIRECTION of what the conventional wisdom expects."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/conventional-wisdom-may-be-contaminating-polls/
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I don’t know if it is that tongue-in-cheek. The problem is herding where the people creating the polls get numbers that don’t seem to conform to the conventional wisdom so they massage them to be more in line.
 
angrysoba said:
I don’t know if it is that tongue-in-cheek. The problem is herding where the people creating the polls get numbers that don’t seem to conform to the conventional wisdom so they massage them to be more in line.
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Yes, that's exactly it.

Maybe Nate Silver will call it tongue-in-cheek-ish (he likes these kind of expressions).
 
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Jesus Christ, calm down everyone. You are acting as if Trump already won. He didn't, and he doesn't have to, as long as you work productively towards stopping him. Get a ******* grip and do something about it.
 
I do keep reminding myself that while chances are disconcertingly high he'll win another term, there's also a chance he might lose. I suppose we are all just demoralised after the Brexit and Trump victories in 2016, and from seeing his approval rating hold steady at 40-42% despite everything.
 
uke2se said:
Jesus Christ, calm down everyone. You are acting as if Trump already won. He didn't, and he doesn't have to, as long as you work productively towards stopping him. Get a ******* grip and do something about it.
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But we are calm.

Twitter pundits yesterday freaked out because the Morning Consult poll put Biden at +6 (was +8 before the conventions).

We'll have a better picture of the race in a couple of weeks (when the real or imaginary "convention bounces" have gone).
If at that point Biden still is at +6 (or better), while pundits act as if Trump is a shoo-in, then the Nate Silver rule mentioned above will reassure me.
If Biden is at +3, it's a toss-up. If Biden is even lower, time to freak out.

65 days
 
I'm a little concerned that Trump got a small post convention bump. Historically, both candidates get a post convention bump that goes away. However, this year, Biden didn't really have a bump (though he stayed at over 50 percent). Biden is still ahead and out of the margin of error in the key battleground states of Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

I still don't get Ohio. It's too close to call right now but it has demographics similar to Pennsylvania and Michigan and the same vulnerabilities for Trump. Ohio is actually even worse off than Michigan and Pennsylvania because of the opioid crisis and Trump is four tenths of a point ahead there.
 
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