Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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arthwollipot said:
The main concern with touch is that if you touch a surface contaminated with the surviving virus, you may then transfer that virus to your mouth or nose. I don't know how long this particular virus can survive on a surface. It may be long enough to survive a trip through international post, but I would think it unlikely. Even viruses that survive for a very long time on surfaces like measles are rarely reported as being transmitted through the post.

But here you go. This might help with your question, depending on how much you trust the New York Post as a source.

Coronavirus can spread on contaminated surfaces, experts warn
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From that link:
It’s unclear how long the virus can survive on surfaces, but experts said the new development may indicate handling packages from China carries health risks.
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There is no evidence of that that I've seen. Sounds like something they got off reddit.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Uuuummmm, some of the stuff.

A few good things, shipping bad vaccine to third world countries, I can see that happening.

Making a big deal about the scientists vaccinating family and other loved ones, that was dumb. Of course anyone with hands on vaccine distribution would do that. Not too many people would care. It would only be a tiny fraction of the doses.

The biggest problem was the speed they sent the virus around, condensed to make the movie work. No real pathogen would do that. Though you can look historically at measles and small pox spreading in the Americas to get a real life model. It takes a longer period of communicability and more survivors or the pandemic would essentially burn out quickly.
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It would take longer in real life;but I can see why they sped it up for dramatic purposes.
I can see you watch movies dealing with medical/public health issues the same way I do with films dealing with Military issues. We both get pretty picky at times.
Still, compared to something like "Outbreak"....

I did like the way they socked it to the woo merchants with the Jude Law character ,though.....
 
Sigh. Science please, not comments in news magazines or unsupported comments on forums.

NIH, 2010 so this will only be possibly similar: Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces▿

First, a note about surrogate virus studies, because you can't easily study deadly pathogens:
In addition to SARS-CoV, there are two pathogenic human coronaviruses that are adapted to propagation and assay in cell culture, 229E and OC43, which could serve as surrogates for SARS-CoV in survival studies. However, previous studies suggested that the survival of 229E and OC43 on surfaces may be shorter than that of SARS-CoV (10, 35). To evaluate surrogates that might serve as more conservative models of SARS-CoV on surfaces, animal coronaviruses were chosen as surrogates for this study.
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Second there are lots of variables so it's best to look at the whole article to understand that if one is interested. It has a discussion of the wide variability.

The results show that when high numbers of the surrogates TGEV and MHV are deposited, these viruses may survive for days on surfaces at the ambient AT and wide range of RH levels (20 to 60% RH) typical of health care environments. TGEV and MHV may be more resistant to inactivation on surfaces than previously studied human coronaviruses, such as 229E (28). SARS-CoV has been reported to survive for 36 h on stainless steel (35), but the reductions in the levels observed were greater than those seen for either TGEV or MHV at 20°C at any RH in this study. However, the AT and RH conditions for the previous experiment were not reported, making comparisons difficult. Rabenau et al. (23) reported much slower inactivation of SARS-CoV on a polystyrene surface (4 log10 reduction after 9 days; AT and RH conditions not reported), consistent with some observations for TGEV and MHV in the present study. There are some similarities with studies of another enveloped virus, human influenza virus, on surfaces in that at higher RH (50 to 60%), the inactivation kinetics are closer to those of TGEV and MHV (21).
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And third, not mentioned in this study, there is an infectious dose issue, and that dose has to actually enter the host's body. What one can recover off a surface in a study like this doesn't tell us, for example, if that's sufficient to get on a hand and into one's mouth/nose/eyes.

It will take epidemiological studies to determine actual transmission risk.

I think it's safe to say it's absurdly unlikely packages/letters shipped from China are going to pose a risk.
 
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How many cases and how many deaths outside of China?

Is this another disease that plain old good nursing prevents deaths? Fluids and electrolytes?
 
casebro said:
How many cases and how many deaths outside of China?

Is this another disease that plain old good nursing prevents deaths? Fluids and electrolytes?
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No deaths outside China. Which is like super easy to google, or check on wikipedia. You won't survive the global pandemic like this !
 
casebro said:
How many cases and how many deaths outside of China?
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Quite a few cases, widely spread around the world, one or two secondary cases in those countries, you can expect a lot more.

But no fatalities outside of China IIRC. There will be some.

Is this another disease that plain old good nursing prevents deaths? Fluids and electrolytes?
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They aren't dying of diarrhea.

Preventing or treating secondary pneumonia will be better in first world countries. But we don't have a lot of remedies for this viral pneumonia yet. So supportive care is limited. And a widespread epidemic could tax the ventilator capacity in any country.

Looking at Hantavirus, ECMO will be needed and that capacity is severely limited. There will almost certainly be triage to younger, otherwise healthy patients. We don't use ECMO now on many elderly patients with severe pneumonia, including those suffering from influenza.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21900022
CONCLUSIONS:
Two-thirds of 51 HCPS patients with a predicted mortality of 100%, who were supported with ECMO, survived and recovered completely. Survival was significantly higher in the second half of the study. Complications associated with both types of femoral cannulation were associated with a trend toward decreased survival, which was not significant.
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HCPS is Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome.
 
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The scenario I've seen that made the most sense was that it's a bat virus that transferred through snakes to humans because of the practice of drinking fresh snake's blood for virility. Supposedly at the wet markets they will slaughter the snake and drain it into a cup for the buyer.

The person saying this had lived in China and was familiar with their customs, so it's unlikely to be the latest crazy conspiracy theory, but I have no proof, just a source who's usually reputable.
 
deadrose said:
The scenario I've seen that made the most sense was that it's a bat virus that transferred through snakes to humans because of the practice of drinking fresh snake's blood for virility. Supposedly at the wet markets they will slaughter the snake and drain it into a cup for the buyer.

The person saying this had lived in China and was familiar with their customs, so it's unlikely to be the latest crazy conspiracy theory, but I have no proof, just a source who's usually reputable.
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Well it wouldn't exactly make it a conspiracy theory.

Just one of many hypotheses about the origin of this outbreak.
 
Japan has been repatriating its citizens from China but have made the moronic decision to allow them to go home. Two of them even refused to be tested! It’s ridiculous that it was even an option for them. Whereas in the UK, repatriated citizens will have to be quarantined at Brize Norton for two weeks, Japanese citizens had optional screening and then went home if they tested negative.

Two of those who tested positive were asymptomatic.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/30/national/three-japanese-wuhan-coronavirus/
 
arthwollipot said:
The main concern with touch is that if you touch a surface contaminated with the surviving virus, you may then transfer that virus to your mouth or nose. I don't know how long this particular virus can survive on a surface. It may be long enough to survive a trip through international post, but I would think it unlikely. Even viruses that survive for a very long time on surfaces like measles are rarely reported as being transmitted through the post.

But here you go. This might help with your question, depending on how much you trust the New York Post as a source.

Coronavirus can spread on contaminated surfaces, experts warn
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Here is a more reliable source
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

Q: Am I at risk for novel coronavirus from a package or products shipping from China?
There is still a lot that is unknown about the newly emerged 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and how it spreads. Two other coronaviruses have emerged previously to cause severe illness in people (MERS and SARS). 2019-nCoV is more genetically related to SARS than MERS, but both are betacoronaviruses with their origins in bats. While we don’t know for sure that this virus will behave the same way as SARS and MERS, we can use the information from both of these earlier coronaviruses to guide us. In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures. Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread most often by respiratory droplets. Currently there is no evidence to support transmission of 2019-nCoV associated with imported goods and there have not been any cases of 2019-nCoV in the United States associated with imported goods.
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Does not answer the question can I get it from touching something that another person, who is infected, has recently touched? And how long is recently?
 
The Atheist said:
The opposite is in fact the case - I'd far prefer there were no pandemics of diseases that kill people and that places like China would wake up to the fact that animals when used for food need to be treated in ways that minimise the risk of zoonotic disease, not exacerbate them.
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Not only China. Most the world actually.
 
deadrose said:
The scenario I've seen that made the most sense was that it's a bat virus that transferred through snakes to humans because of the practice of drinking fresh snake's blood for virility. Supposedly at the wet markets they will slaughter the snake and drain it into a cup for the buyer.

The person saying this had lived in China and was familiar with their customs, so it's unlikely to be the latest crazy conspiracy theory, but I have no proof, just a source who's usually reputable.
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Sounds like something that would happen in China, but how does drinking snake blood expose you to a bat virus?

McHrozni
 
NZ looks like having its first case, with firm results due tomorrow.

With still 5-10 flights daily between NZ & China, the person will soon not be alone.

Tourist businesses are pooping their pants at the thought of closing Chinese travel, with China being by far the biggest numeric visitor source, and they've dropped by almost 50% as a result of restrictions in China.

I imagine lots of people would be a bit averse to sitting in an enclosed cabin with 300 potential carriers for 16 hours, too.
 
McHrozni said:
Sounds like something that would happen in China, but how does drinking snake blood expose you to a bat virus?

McHrozni
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The snake eats the bat that has the virus. The virus survives in the snake. The snake is then killed and the blood drained and drank by a human without being cooked. The virus thinks it is back in a bat, but one that does not know how to deal with the virus. So the human falls sick. Even better (for the virus, not me) the virus can spread to another human.
 
dudalb said:
ANd what is scary is that you have to wonder if the Chinese Government is low balling the figures. They know better then to out and out try to hide that it's a serous situation, but I would not put trying to downplay how serious it is. Authorarain regimes have a habit of doing that.
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Dunno about that. It doesn't appear as though they are playing anything down at the moment.

China may have form for it, as with other authoritarian regimes, as you say, but there doesn't seem much evidence for it this time.
 
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