Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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Skeptic Ginger said:
How does that differ from what people should do anyway?

(Seeing a doc for a fever depending on other factors.)
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And how the hell do you know somebody has the virus unless you assume anybody who is an Asian has it.
As for the other stuff, if you want to crash the medical system, just let everybody who has a fever demand to see a doctor....if it's high or persists, yeah, but if everybody who gets the 24 hour standard cold but seeked a doctor, I would hate to think of what would happen.
 
dudalb said:
..but he seems to take such joy and pleasure in it.
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Way to repeat the same fallacy while ignoring my question about what part of my posts show anything that says I think it's fun or enjoyable?

You are reading my posts through a haze of bias.
 
Hm .. check this .. SARS had almost 10% mortality. Scary.
This looks way better so far. But !
Imagine you are confirmed case. How long till you die after that ? That delay is crucial.
We know SARS had almost 10% now, when it's already over.
But nCov-2019 is not over. It's developing. And it's developing very fast, exponentially, and btw. way faster then SARS. SARS had 8000 cases total.
If we want to compute mortality, we can't just take dead-today/confirmed-today. We have to take number of confirmed people from when the person became confirmed. Let's say it take one week, on average, to die after you are confirmed case. So let's take number of dead today, ie 171, and number of confirmed cases one week back. ie 639.
That's 26%. That's apocalypse.
There are of course many other factors, which throw it out of the window. Some good. Like there is actually lot of undetected cases, as these are confirmed, PCR tested cases. There is not enough capacity to test everyone. And with that comes bad factor. It's said that only live people are tested, so there might be more dead than reported.
Guess we will only learn more when cases outside Chine become better know, and sadly, when's there more of them.
 
Won't be long before the scam artists start selling phony cures for the coronavirus.
Probably already happening in China.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Hm .. check this .. SARS had almost 10% mortality. Scary.
This looks way better so far. But !
Imagine you are confirmed case. How long till you die after that ? That delay is crucial.
We know SARS had almost 10% now, when it's already over.
But nCov-2019 is not over. It's developing. And it's developing very fast, exponentially, and btw. way faster then SARS. SARS had 8000 cases total.
If we want to compute mortality, we can't just take dead-today/confirmed-today. We have to take number of confirmed people from when the person became confirmed. Let's say it take one week, on average, to die after you are confirmed case. So let's take number of dead today, ie 171, and number of confirmed cases one week back. ie 639.
That's 26%. That's apocalypse.
There are of course many other factors, which throw it out of the window. Some good. Like there is actually lot of undetected cases, as these are confirmed, PCR tested cases. There is not enough capacity to test everyone. And with that comes bad factor. It's said that only live people are tested, so there might be more dead than reported.
Guess we will only learn more when cases outside Chine become better know, and sadly, when's there more of them.
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The only conspiracy theory about the virus I can buy into is that the Chinese Government, to try to maintain calm, are lowballing the figures.
 
We also don't know yet what proportion of the population, if any, is immune to the virus.

But it looks like it will soon begin to spread from other centres - not just China. How long before the authorities give up on the idea of containment, and accept that it is likely to spread worldwide?
 
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dudalb said:
Won't be long before the scam artists start selling phony cures for the coronavirus.
Probably already happening in China.
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Already happening in the USA...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/qanon...ure-for-coronavirus-is-drinking-lethal-bleach

As the global death toll from an alarming new coronavirus surged this week, promoters of the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory were urging their fans to ward off the illness by purchasing and drinking dangerous bleach.

The substance—dubbed “Miracle Mineral Solution” or “MMS”—has long been promoted by fringe groups as a combination miracle cure and vaccine for everything from autism to cancer and HIV/AIDS.

The Food and Drug Administration has repeatedly warned consumers not to drink MMS, last year calling it effectively a “dangerous bleach” that could cause “severe vomiting” and “acute liver failure.” But those warnings haven’t stopped QAnon devotees—who believe in a world where Donald Trump is at war with shadowy deep-state “cabal”—from promoting a lethal substance as a salve for a health crisis that speaks to the darkest recesses of fringe thought.
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ceptimus said:
We also don't know yet what proportion of the population, if any, is immune to the virus.

But it looks like it will soon begin to spread from other centres - not just China. How long before the authorities give up on the idea of containment, and accept that it is likely to spread worldwide?
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It is likely. But every delay helps, because help can be prepared, and every day we are closer to cure.
 
If this is a vote thing I would say no at the moment as it seems a bit over the top hype when you look at how many die of the flu, measles and malaria every year
 
dudalb said:
The only conspiracy theory about the virus I can buy into is that the Chinese Government, to try to maintain calm, are lowballing the figures.
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I actually don't think they are anymore. The numbers look quite good. Random enough. Regular enough. Consistent between regions. If it's a lie, it's very well fabricated one. And that's the thing with lies, they usually are pretty easy to spot.
The number can however be delayed.
 
Btw. checked SARS speed .. in it's highest rate, it took about 2 weeks to increase number of cases 1.5 times. Which is about what the new coronavirus makes every day.
 
dudalb said:
And how the hell do you know somebody has the virus unless you assume anybody who is an Asian has it.
As for the other stuff, if you want to crash the medical system, just let everybody who has a fever demand to see a doctor....if it's high or persists, yeah, but if everybody who gets the 24 hour standard cold but seeked a doctor, I would hate to think of what would happen.
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:thumbsup: Good points.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Hm .. check this .. SARS had almost 10% mortality. Scary.
This looks way better so far. But !....
Guess we will only learn more when cases outside Chine become better know, and sadly, when's there more of them.
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Sigh. See my earlier post about what the SARS virus looked like early on. This pandemic (guess we can call it that now) is nothing like SARS.

There will be more total deaths because this pathogen will be more widespread. That doesn't mean it's going to be like SARS.

And guess how these pandemics come to a natural ending? Severe cases die or are quarantined while mild cases go undetected and are spread. The virus becomes naturally attenuated.
 
Supposed to be traveling to China for work in March. Feeling very good about it now. :eek:
 
This is interesting:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...th-emergency?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=news
However, Tedros was adamant that "the main reason for the declaration is not because of what is happening in China but because of what is happening in other countries. ... Let me be clear — this vote is not a declaration of no confidence in China." He said that the WHO is deeply concerned about what will happen if the virus begins spreading in countries with weak health systems and that the purpose of the declaration is to help those countries.
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1) Interesting they don't want to offend China.
2) More interesting, they are exactly right, countries with poor public health infrastructure simply will not be able to contain the virus.
 
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