Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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Meanwhile, in the real world, using the factor of 100 times for infected people from Imperial College, we have ~400k people with the virus and 100 dead, so we can say the current mortality rate is about 0.25%.

An interesting point so far:

According to local media, the NHC also said the virus could infect children, but that their symptoms would be relatively mild.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51275896
 
cullennz said:
Have to say it seems a tad over blown to me, but all good.
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We can't know this yet.
It has a 2 week incubation period for symptoms, but is contagious from date of infection.

I expect we will know more in 3 days.
 
JeanTate said:
Fear of the unknown, or reasonable fear?
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Fear and panic are profitable.

JeanTate said:
If, in 2020, the flu kills faaaaaar more people than this new coronavirus does,
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Not to forget measles.

JeanTate said:
what will the vast fortune spent of face masks, the locking down of a major city, etc have been for?
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For show. It's political theatre. To reassure people and demonstrate China's status and capability.

JeanTate said:
Maybe the widespread wearing of face masks (etc) will reduce the incidence of colds, the flu, ... and the new coronavirus?
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General wearing of surgical masks is demonstrably ineffective.
 
Travis said:
Why bother? Apparently its harmless. :rolleyes:
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Well, it's clearly not harmless - except for kids, which is nice.

It has a fatality rate, as do lots of otherwise non-fatal diseases, like influenza & the common cold. It appears to be killing people with underlying diseases, just as those two do.

The mortality rate for 2019-nCoV* is starting to look somewhere between H1N1 and seasonal influenza.

I'm sticking with 3,000,000 deaths worldwide as the likely harvest.

*needs a better name.
 
The Atheist said:
Meanwhile, in the real world, using the factor of 100 times for infected people from Imperial College, we have ~400k people with the virus and 100 dead, so we can say the current mortality rate is about 0.25%.
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There is no evidence it is that high. You continue to pull that denominator out of the nether regions.
 
Travis said:
Why bother? Apparently its harmless. :rolleyes:
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The discussion in public health circles is, this is the third novel corona virus in a decade. We can expect more and the next one might be more like SARS. So all the vaccine research we do is useful.

In addition, there is another reason for vaccinations besides preventing fatalities and serious illness. Even mild illness has an economic cost of lost work time.
 
catsmate said:
General wearing of surgical masks is demonstrably ineffective.
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No, it's effective, just not for the reasons most people think.

Viruses themselves will pass straight through a surgical mask, it is true. They're too small for it to be a direct barrier. But in most cases you're not getting infected because you inhaled the virus. You're getting infected because you've touched an infected surface, then touched your mouth or nose before washing your hands. By acting as a barrier to your mouth and nose, it can effectively prevent infections. A surgical mask is also generally sufficient to block liquid droplets from coughing or sneezing, which are also a vector.
 
WA has it's first secondary case, the wife of the identified case. Not sure though if she was also in China when the patient was meaning it wasn't secondary.

Two of the six awaiting tests, tested negative. That leaves 3 awaiting test results, I believe.

An EU country has a secondary case, France I think but I'm not sure.
 
That secondary case might be Canada. I have likely conflated the news stations.

Buch of monitored cases are negative, a number of new people being tested.

And someone else on the plane our case was on tested positive, and has a very mild case.
 
There is good news on the vaccine front, though.

Australian lab first outside of China to copy coronavirus, helping vaccine push

In a major breakthrough in the global fight against coronavirus, scientists in Australia have developed a lab-grown version of the disease.

Described as a "game changer" that will help scientists determine whether a future vaccine is effective, experts at Melbourne's Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity on Tuesday became the world's first scientific lab outside of China to copy the virus.

They will now share it with the World Health Organisation (WHO) in Europe, which will in turn share it with labs worldwide — including one from Queensland — involved in the worldwide race to develop a vaccine.

The team of scientists grew the virus from a patient who had been infected since Friday.

The ABC was in the lab the moment scientists discovered they had successfully grown the virus, with Mike Catton, the co-deputy director of the Doherty Institute, confirming it with three words.

"We got it," he said. "Fantastic."
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arthwollipot said:
A surgical mask is also generally sufficient to block liquid droplets from coughing or sneezing, which are also a vector.
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I wish Americans would get in the habit of wearing masks when they are sick, to help prevent spreading disease to others who are not. As you said, the masks block droplets, which are usually how pathogens are dispersed into the air.
 
Ziggurat said:
I wish Americans would get in the habit of wearing masks when they are sick, to help prevent spreading disease to others who are not. As you said, the masks block droplets, which are usually how pathogens are dispersed into the air.
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And also how they end up landing on surfaces that people can then touch.
 
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