Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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That list doesn't even go into the conspiracy theories going around in China. For instance that it is an american made bioweapon that only affects asian people.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
There is no evidence it is that high. You continue to pull that denominator out of the nether regions.
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Holy crap, you just keep doing it. You've been completely dishonest from the first page of this thread.

Here's one easy one you might like to think about:

Skeptic Ginger said:
Influenza is thousands of time more deadly and more easily spread.[then coronavirus]
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Wrong and wronger.

I, on the other hand, have been exclusively using information from Imperial College in London which is, alongside CDC, the world's leading authority on viruses and epidemics. Not my nether regions.

I've given links to the information.

I believe I already commented somewhere in the thread that when it comes to facts, I'll take the word of organisations like ICL over "some woman on the internet".
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Meanwhile, some more actual data:

One week ago, there were 100 confirmed infections and 3 deaths.

As of today, there are 6000 confirmed cases and 132 deaths. The death rate seems by far highest for males aged over 50. In that age group, the mortality rate may even exceed SARS.

I see talk already of numbers peaking. Bit early, I'd have said.

My kid's school is excluding children whose families have travelled to China over the holidays, for at least the first two weeks. Seems to be a national policy.
 
My Chinese colleagues based in Chengdu have informed us that the government has extended the holiday period with one week to help prevent the spread of the virus. They should be back at work the first week of February. A pretty drastic measure, even if I'm not sure whether it applies to just parts of China or the whole country.
 
The Atheist said:
<snip>

Meanwhile, some more actual data:

One week ago, there were 100 confirmed infections and 3 deaths.

As of today, there are 6000 confirmed cases and 132 deaths. The death rate seems by far highest for males aged over 50. In that age group, the mortality rate may even exceed SARS.

I see talk already of numbers peaking. Bit early, I'd have said.
<snip>
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Is that because there are more cases or because there is better reporting of the cases? It had better be the second, because if it is the first humans are in big trouble. The number of cases is growing by 60 each week. Next week there will be 360,000 cases and the week after 21,600,000 cases. The only good news is that eventually everyone would have contacted the disease and so it would stop spreading.

So your numbers cannot be right. It cannot be spreading that fast.
 
The exponential factor is about 1.5 per day, that is 17 per week. 60 is distorted by lower numbers and delays in reporting. With bigger numbers the estimate would be more precise.

Here I found very nice graph in local news which uses logarithmic scale. No sign of peaking. You can also see the growth rate is pretty stable.

https://public.flourish.studio/visu...e=showcase&utm_campaign=visualisation/1292813

Still at this rate the whole world population would get infected in 34 days. Of course it will peak before that. It wont thrive in different climate, and even in affected areas, some percentage of people will never get infected. So it will never be 7 billion. It can be millions though.
 
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The Atheist said:
Holy crap, you just keep doing it. You've been completely dishonest from the first page of this thread. ...

My kid's school is excluding children whose families have travelled to China over the holidays, for at least the first two weeks. Seems to be a national policy.
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Disagreeing with you does not make people dishonest.

Excluding kids whose families have traveled to China is an absurd overreaction.
 
Armitage72 said:
The company I work for makes cleaning products, including hard surface disinfectants. Our sales reps in the US and Canada are already getting asked about products effective against this. I've been asked to put together a letter for them detailing which of our products are effective against coronaviruses. Fortunately, the answer is "nearly all of them."
The CDC website just says "Use a diluted bleach solution or a household disinfectant with a label that says “EPA-approved.”" to treat surfaces. That obviously won't help with direct person-to-person transmission, of course.
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I read something just recently that apparently some are recommending that people drink bleach.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/qanon...ure-for-coronavirus-is-drinking-lethal-bleach
 
rjh01 said:
Is that because there are more cases or because there is better reporting of the cases? It had better be the second, because if it is the first humans are in big trouble. The number of cases is growing by 60 each week. Next week there will be 360,000 cases and the week after 21,600,000 cases. The only good news is that eventually everyone would have contacted the disease and so it would stop spreading.

So your numbers cannot be right. It cannot be spreading that fast.
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Well, it clearly is spreading that fast, because the numbers will be well under-stated, mainly due to the lag in being infected and being tested.

You also need to remember that many people with it won't be tested because they won't be sick enough to go to the doctor. That's why ICL is using a factor of 100 in estimating the numbers with the disease.

The human species isn't in trouble as a result of the virus, it's just not that deadly, except maybe for old blokes. None of them around here, are there?

Arcade22 said:
But will having sex with a virgin cure you, like it does with HIV?
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Worth a try!
 
This is some feeble "population control".

Unless it's a test run for a bigger operation in the future....yeah, that's the ticket.
 
A tweet from Ken "Popehat" White:
Middle child's school just sent an email about the Coronavirus that said, in very polite school administrator terms, WILL YOU PACK OF GULLIBLE GIBBERING MORONS STOP WETTING YOURSELVES OVER EVERY IMBECILE RUMOR YOU RUN ACROSS ON THE PORN SITES YOU FREQUENT
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The CDC has updated their guidance on the use of disinfectants on surfaces now that the EPA has announced that the virus meets the requirements for their Emerging Viral Pathogen policy. This allows disinfectant manufacturers to obtain permission to make limited claims against the specific virus under very specific conditions, e.g. not on their labels or in general advertising.

Routine cleaning and disinfection procedures (e.g., using cleaners and water to pre-clean surfaces prior to applying an EPA-registered, hospital-grade disinfectant to frequently touched surfaces or objects for appropriate contact times as indicated on the product’s label) are appropriate for 2019-nCoV in healthcare settings, including those patient-care areas in which aerosol-generating procedures are performed. Products with EPA-approved emerging viral pathogens claims are recommended for use against 2019-nCoV. These products can be identified by the following claim:

--“[Product name] has demonstrated effectiveness against viruses similar to 2019-nCoV on hard non-porous surfaces. Therefore, this product can be used against 2019-nCoV when used in accordance with the directions for use against [name of supporting virus] on hard, non-porous surfaces.”

--This claim or a similar claim, will be made only through the following communications outlets: technical literature distributed exclusively to health care facilities, physicians, nurses and public health officials, “1-800” consumer information services, social media sites and company websites (non-label related). Specific claims for “2019-nCoV” will not appear on the product or master label.

--Additional information about EPA-approved emerging viral pathogens claims can be found here: https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-regis...aims-against-emerging-viral-pathogensexternal

--If there are no available EPA-registered products that have an approved emerging viral pathogen claim for 2019-nCoV, products with label claims against human coronaviruses should be used according to label instructions.
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We license two formulas from a company that has received approval for emerging pathogen claims. They require following the directions for killing Adenovirus 7, which is 4 times the concentration used for other viruses. Since both products are already approved to kill human coronavirus at the lower concentration, the use rate is basically "nuke it from orbit; it's the only way to be sure."
 
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