Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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theprestige said:
I don't know how you'd measure the real world side, but Tom Clancy has written at least twelve novels, only one of which, to my knowledge, has an engineered bioweapon.
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Well, the fact that I got his name wrong should show you the level of interest I have in that genre of fiction. :D

theprestige said:
The real world has more than one. The US even today maintains a latent biowarfare capability.
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Yes, I agree that it's likely that a number of countries have secret illegal biowarfare research programs. I just don't think it's likely that this is one of them.

theprestige said:
Also, why did you assume I was talking about malice? I think other explanations are far more likely. If this turns out to be a an intentional outbreak, springing from malicious intent of the Chinese government, I will be very surprised.
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I meant the malice inherent in developing such a bioweapon in the first place. I was speaking generally, rather than specifically.
 
angrysoba said:
Genuine question: Is this virus really what a good bio weapon would look like? It seems to be very slow-acting with long incubation periods but relatively low fatality rates. Is that supposed to be like an anti-personnel mine to maim and tie up resources of the enemy rather than immediately kill?
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If it's a manufactured bio-weapon and if it accidentally escaped then it might not be in its final weapon form. IOW, a finished product might have near 100% mortality.

Totally hypothetical and speculative and conspiratorial.
 
arthwollipot said:
Well, the fact that I got his name wrong should show you the level of interest I have in that genre of fiction. :D

Yes, I agree that it's likely that a number of countries have secret illegal biowarfare research programs. I just don't think it's likely that this is one of them.

I meant the malice inherent in developing such a bioweapon in the first place. I was speaking generally, rather than specifically.
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You don't think it's likely that the Chinese government is capable of the malice necessary to embark on a secret illegal biowarfare program?
 
theprestige said:
It's kind of weird that an experienced RN can't come up with a transfer protocol that effectively manages the risk of contagion.
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WTF?

This was all about a hypothetically isolating Hawaii. What is it you want, said nurse to come up with the plan to do so? :rolleyes:
 
Getting down to fundamentals the real question is whether hygiene measures (washing hands, not touching face, keeping some distance (>1M) from others) drops R0 near or below 1? The evidence from China is that it has dropped below 1.0 and has for at least the last week. However, China has implemented rather extreme control measures and R0 isn't much below 1.0. So it will impact China's economy as well as others connected to it for a considerable period of time.

If so, then this is unlikely to explode to near the degree it has in China in most countries. Exceptions are in countries that aren't equipped to recognize it and have the population do what is necessary to reduce the transmission.

That said, this is going to be devastating economically around the World. There are so many supply chain interdependencies and so many businesses that depend on the supply chain as well as people going out and about. Further, this is happing while the business cycle is rather long in the tooth.

Assuming a vaccine can be developed but will take a year or so, my expectation is that this will be far more economically impacting than the actual impact on mortality. At least in most first world countries.
 
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Just happened to be reading a Kindle Unlimited freebie -- very short book at 100 pages or so. It's a good, fast read, except I can't get past the fact that it's written in the second person. I think I've only read maybe one or two other books that chose that POV. But it's short enough that I can live with it.

The title is "Q" (short for Quarantine). Here's an excerpt I found to be pertinent right now.
Sorry if the size isn't perfect for your device, but I don't know how to get around that.
 

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Skeptic Ginger said:
WTF?

This was all about a hypothetically isolating Hawaii. What is it you want, said nurse to come up with the plan to do so? :rolleyes:
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Seems you should be proud that theprestige thinks so highly of your skills that he expects you to be able to do this, and is disappointed that you cannot.

Maybe you should be running this CDC. :D
 
marting said:
Getting down to fundamentals the real question is whether hygiene measures (washing hands, not touching face, keeping some distance (>1M) from others) drops R0 near or below 1? The evidence from China is that it has dropped below 1.0 and has for at least the last week. However, China has implemented rather extreme control measures and R0 isn't much below 1.0. So it will impact China's economy as well as others connected to it for a considerable period of time.....
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The problem here is twofold. People are unlikely to do this properly, and, too many people will likely be contagious before showing symptoms.
 
angrysoba said:
Genuine question: Is this virus really what a good bio weapon would look like? It seems to be very slow-acting with long incubation periods but relatively low fatality rates. Is that supposed to be like an anti-personnel mine to maim and tie up resources of the enemy rather than immediately kill?
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That is just it:Corona Virus would make a lousy biological weapon.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
The problem here is twofold. People are unlikely to do this properly, and, too many people will likely be contagious before showing symptoms.
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And then from what I have read, the early symptoms are not much different then those for the common cold or the garden variety flu, whih could lead to cases not being reported until too late.
 
And, frankly, how it originated is sort of a side issue at this point. We have more urgent problems to deal with.
 
And, sadly. it is stirring up a lot of Anti Chinese feeling around the world.
I am not talking about unfriendly feelings toware the Chinese Government...in which I wholdheartedly share..but just plain old bigotry.
 
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theprestige said:
But currently I'm thinking the disparity between the Chinese numbers and the numbers reported elsewhere signals a really big surprise for all of us:...
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There isn't much disparity, although their death rate is higher.

Anyway, can we leave the speculation for somewhere else and use this one as dealing with the actual disease? I think there's a good CT section here somewhere.

marting said:
Getting down to fundamentals the real question is whether hygiene measures (washing hands, not touching face, keeping some distance (>1M) from others) drops R0 near or below 1? The evidence from China is that it has dropped below 1.0 and has for at least the last week. However, China has implemented rather extreme control measures and R0 isn't much below 1.0. So it will impact China's economy as well as others connected to it for a considerable period of time.
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I'd say it's far less the hand washing than the near house arrest of 100 million people.

And if they return to work before the infection has completely dried up, it will break out again for a certainty.

The 300 cases - 30% increase - in South Korea's number are seriously concerning. It looks like the most reliable data is coming out of Seoul, and their systems for tracking and quarantine are probably better than China's, so if the numbers there continue to increase, we're really in it.

You don't need to convince me how bad the economic impact will be!
 
I posted this on 23 Feb:

The Atheist said:
Why there? I can see cases springing up all over the place this coming week, and by the end of it, I'd say we will have a WHO-stated pandemic under way and the number of known cases outside China will be up by at least 300% on the total I'm seeing right now, of 1600.
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3 days later, they're already 100% higher than that.

Can you see where this is headed?
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
The problem here is twofold. People are unlikely to do this properly, and, too many people will likely be contagious before showing symptoms.
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I agree. Those are both real issues. I suspect the initial reduction in R0 will be the result of people avoiding crowds, staying home, not gong to church, movies, restaurants and such. And some will take further precautions. If not enough, the flareups that will occur here and there will be widely reported and what people should be doing also reported. So I don't expect the relative explosion that occurred in China to occur in America or most other first world countries.

But, as I said, it will be a festering problem with severe economic impact.

On the positive side down the road is it will probably push the anti-vaxers into the dustbin of history.
 
Polio is an interesting disease. Back in the day I remember my parents not letting me go to swimming pools or large groups of kids because of fear of polio. There may be echoes from the cultural/economic impact it made at the time with COVID 19.

A friend/class mate I would sometimes play chess with was stuck in an iron lung from polio. He could only move his head and would read a book mounted on the lung using a mouth held tool. I met him when he was around 11 and would bike over to his home. I lost track of him after high school but a movie was made of his life by Jessica Yu.
 
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