Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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portlandatheist said:
TA's paranoia is beginning to rub off on me. How long until this thing goes supernova? It could just slowly progress as we get into nicer weather and come back with a vengeance this Fall. I guess I should stock up on few supplies.
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"I am recommending my clients invest in Canned Goods and Shotguns."


Brains Gremlin.
 
The Atheist said:
That is deeply suspicious, although it is 'flu season.

I'd strongly recommend not getting both!
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And how it is flu season. Last week I worked around half a dozen people who coughed and had cough medicine prescribed. I think know pretty well were I got my cough from. Since all of them were high-risk flu patients, but none in serious health trouble even after some days, I am pretty damned sure it ain't corona. It ain't influenza either. My money is on rhinovirus.
 
portlandatheist said:
TA's paranoia is beginning to rub off on me.
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I'd like to think I'm being realistic rather than paranoid. I'm not quoting any numbers that aren't established and reported by health officials and experts.

portlandatheist said:
How long until this thing goes supernova? It could just slowly progress as we get into nicer weather and come back with a vengeance this Fall. I guess I should stock up on few supplies.
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It could also be completely irrelevant as to the weather. MERS occurs any time, and as a novel virus it mightn't matter at all, beyond the fact that kids spend more time outside than in during summer.

Also, the 1918-19 'flu took two trips around the globe and was much worse second time in.
 
The Atheist said:
When two government ministers in Iran have the virus, along with 15 deaths, and they're only showing 95 cases, I'm thinking they're a couple of thousand light in case total.

The behaviour of the outbreak is totally off the wall - it's obviously been circulating in Iran for weeks, yet hasn't cropped up everywhere, despite the fact that Iran probably ranks outside the top 100 for contact with Chinese.

There's still a piece of the puzzle missing.
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https://www.ft.com/content/2c7ba440-57da-11ea-abe5-8e03987b7b20
The origin of the virus in Iran is in the holy city of Qom, 140km south of Tehran and home to 1.2m people, including hundreds of thousands of clerical students. It is believed that hundreds of Chinese clerics study in Qom’s religious schools. The senior clergy in Qom have so far refused to allow the shrine, which receives many visitors daily, to be shut down.
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angrysoba said:
In terms of tourism, Iran and China are probably not on each other's lists very highly, but in terms of diplomatic links, maybe much more so.

Pure, pure, pure speculation: Government ministers from Iran travelling to China, sampling a bit of prostitution while they are away from home...

Came back with an unexpectedly exotic STD.
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China is helping build something in Iran.
 
arthwollipot said:
I would not be surprised if that turns out to be a paranoid conspiracy theory.
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Nobody ever gets surprised when their default assumption is borne out. The fun is when you stop to consider other possibilities. I assume the Enquirer is wrong in this case, but I wouldn't be surprised if they turn out to be right.

Mainly I wouldn't be surprised because one of my default assumptions is that China conducts biological weapons research. Another one of my assumptions is that mistakes happen.

So I figure the Enquirer is probably wrong, but I don't expect you to be impressed by such a mundane assumption. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if they turn out to be right. Would you? Or have you not yeti got around to considering anything other than the default assumption?
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
You work it out:

It only takes one person unloading cargo to spread it to a dock worker.
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Seems like it'd be relatively easy to manage that level of exposure risk.

Modern container ships, the longshoremen don't have to make contact with the crew or the truck drivers. The crew stays on the ship. , The longshorman stays in the crane moving containers from ship to truck. The truck driver stays in the cab of his truck. Give them all masks and bunny suits, send a few CDC officials to oversee the prophylaxis, and you could probably supply Hawaii from China without contagion indefinitely.
 
theprestige said:
Nobody ever gets surprised when their default assumption is borne out. The fun is when you stop to consider other possibilities. I assume the Enquirer is wrong in this case, but I wouldn't be surprised if they turn out to be right.

Mainly I wouldn't be surprised because one of my default assumptions is that China conducts biological weapons research. Another one of my assumptions is that mistakes happen.

So I figure the Enquirer is probably wrong, but I don't expect you to be impressed by such a mundane assumption. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if they turn out to be right. Would you? Or have you not yeti got around to considering anything other than the default assumption?
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Actually I would be surprised if it turned out to be right. I tend to assume that chance and accident are more likely than malice. Deliberately engineered bioweapons are more likely in a John Clancy novel than they are in the real world. Though I do agree that China is not the most responsible of players on the world stage.
 
Venom said:
It's not really a pandemic yet.

It's still an epidemic in China with scattered outbreaks seeded from the source. It's not uncontrollably spreading internationally.
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You're joking right?

Keep in mind announcements from both the WHO and CDC (US) have political influences they consider. These announcements have implications governments are supposed to act on. So essentially it is a pandemic but WHO hasn't made certain related recommendations yet.
 
theprestige said:
Nobody ever gets surprised when their default assumption is borne out. The fun is when you stop to consider other possibilities. I assume the Enquirer is wrong in this case, but I wouldn't be surprised if they turn out to be right.

Mainly I wouldn't be surprised because one of my default assumptions is that China conducts biological weapons research. Another one of my assumptions is that mistakes happen.

So I figure the Enquirer is probably wrong, but I don't expect you to be impressed by such a mundane assumption. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if they turn out to be right. Would you? Or have you not yeti got around to considering anything other than the default assumption?
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Genuine question: Is this virus really what a good bio weapon would look like? It seems to be very slow-acting with long incubation periods but relatively low fatality rates. Is that supposed to be like an anti-personnel mine to maim and tie up resources of the enemy rather than immediately kill?
 
arthwollipot said:
Actually I would be surprised if it turned out to be right. I tend to assume that chance and accident are more likely than malice. Deliberately engineered bioweapons are more likely in a John Clancy novel than they are in the real world. Though I do agree that China is not the most responsible of players on the world stage.
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I don't know how you'd measure the real world side, but Tom Clancy has written at least twelve novels, only one of which, to my knowledge, has an engineered bioweapon.

The real world has more than one. The US even today maintains a latent biowarfare capability.

Also, why did you assume I was talking about malice? I think other explanations are far more likely. If this turns out to be a an intentional outbreak, springing from malicious intent of the Chinese government, I will be very surprised.

---

But currently I'm thinking the disparity between the Chinese numbers and the numbers reported elsewhere signals a really big surprise for all of us: Behind the developing country façade China presents to the world, the Chinese interior is largely a failed state.
 
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