• Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more

Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

Status
Not open for further replies.
The number of new cases in Australia is going down since 4 April at about 37% per week. This is rather slow. At this rate we will not get into single figures until about 11 May. 4 April was 12 days after the lockdown began.

I was hoping that the number would go to zero very quickly. But this is not to be the case. Not sure where the new cases are coming from since over 64% of cases originated overseas.
 
Zambo said:
On the same website I see. "Assuming full mitigation: peak of 2,214 daily deaths on April 15". Now it is about 750 deaths a day so if I assume an average of 1,500 a day for 15 days and assume the peak lasts 5 days @ 2,200 a day then that gives a total by 20 April of:
4500 + 22,500 + 11,000 = 38,000.
Click to expand...

On 1 April (seems so long ago) Worldometers gave data that could predict 27,000 USA COVID-19 deaths by 15 April and 38,000 by 20 April. Hopefully the 20 April number is high. But of course now the worry turns to the longer term.
 
rjh01 said:
The number of new cases in Australia is going down since 4 April at about 37% per week. This is rather slow. At this rate we will not get into single figures until about 11 May. 4 April was 12 days after the lockdown began.

I was hoping that the number would go to zero very quickly. But this is not to be the case. Not sure where the new cases are coming from since over 64% of cases originated overseas.
Click to expand...
Well, 100s of Australians returned from overseas last week, including 100 from the COVID stricken cruise ship Greg Mortimer.
 
The Atheist said:
I don't think it's that big a deal - $600M isn't a lot in the current economic money print. Even piddly little countries like NZ could make up that deficit and not have the breathe too hard over it.

IMF or ECB will step in - if Bill Gates or Warren Buffett don't. Hell, if I were a billionaire, I'd pay it just to make him look bad.
Click to expand...
If it was so easy, why has the WHO been underfunded for years?
The USA is the single largest contributor giving almost a quarter of the funds. As it is, more than 100 million children in Africa are at risk of not receiving measles vaccines. Most countries will look at their own population first before worrying about what is going on elsewhere.


Seems Trump may be backing off folding under pressure listening to reason.
 
Last edited:
It's the old Republican logic: people are poor because they have access to food stamps.
So, logically, people are poor because they have access to medicine.
 
rjh01 said:
The number of new cases in Australia is going down since 4 April at about 37% per week. This is rather slow. At this rate we will not get into single figures until about 11 May. 4 April was 12 days after the lockdown began.

I was hoping that the number would go to zero very quickly. But this is not to be the case. Not sure where the new cases are coming from since over 64% of cases originated overseas.
Click to expand...

With the current semi quarantine that is being practiced, there will be some person-to-person transmission within families, or share houses, workplaces etc.

I was surprised at the cluster of cases from Quantas baggage handlers here in Adelaide. Other Quantas staff are in self-isolation because they share the same break room and other facilities.
 
EHocking said:
Well, 100s of Australians returned from overseas last week, including 100 from the COVID stricken cruise ship Greg Mortimer.
Click to expand...

It would be interesting to see how many people get the virus in quarantine and how many people get the virus in the community. Then we would know if we could end the lockdown, even if people are coming into the country with the virus as they would be in quarantine. Spend heaps of resources in tracking down every person who has the virus even if they do not have symptoms. This can be done a lot easier now we are in lockdown.


novaphile said:
With the current semi quarantine that is being practiced, there will be some person-to-person transmission within families, or share houses, workplaces etc.

I was surprised at the cluster of cases from Qantas baggage handlers here in Adelaide. Other Qantas staff are in self-isolation because they share the same break room and other facilities.
Click to expand...
[fixed spelling]
I wonder where they got the virus from? One suitcase that had the virus on the outside or from one Qantas employee who had been overseas? If they got it from a suitcase then you would expect heaps of baggage handlers to get the virus because several people flying would have the virus and they would contaminate suitcases.
 
Cheetah said:
Just passed 2 mil cases on Worldometer.


1 mil was on 2nd of April.
Click to expand...

Current graphics from the same source:

49777188477_28aeb6f57a_z.jpg


No “flattening of the curve” yet apparent, so we may be able to expect another doubling over the next 2 weeks or so. But at least there’s something positive in that, for now, the growth rate seems to be linear rather than exponential.
 
The Atheist said:
I don't think it's that big a deal - $600M isn't a lot in the current economic money print. Even piddly little countries like NZ could make up that deficit and not have the breathe too hard over it.

IMF or ECB will step in - if Bill Gates or Warren Buffett don't. Hell, if I were a billionaire, I'd pay it just to make him look bad.
Click to expand...

There's a big country which could make a lot of political capital from stepping in to fund WHO.
 
Planigale said:
The Chinese obviously allow massive transparency if they allow the US government to inspect their state research laboratories. I wonder how often the Chinese government are allowed to hold inspections of US government laboratories? Given how early the CIA were aware of the outbreak and the liklihood any such inspection would have included CIA input one wonders if the outbreak was triggered by the CIA? Perhaps a misconceived attempt to get samples of what the Chinese were working on rather than a deliberate event.
Click to expand...

Given that the inspections took place around 2 years before the outbreak, I think that it's fair to say that the probability that the inspections were related to the outbreak is fairly low. The article doesn't state why the US was allowed to inspect the lab; perhaps it was a requirement for maintaining an international certification?

See how easy it is to take a few facts and create a narrative? Given we know that MERS comes from camels and not a Saudi research institute, and we know that SARS-CoV-2 shows all the features of a natural virus, the 'wet market' theory is not an unreasonable one. An escape from a laboratory is not impossible but one would expect early cases to be associated with a laboratory (see Birmingham smallpox outbreak).
Click to expand...

Certainly the fact that MERS and SARS1 jumped from bat to some other animal to humans lends weight to the "wet market" theory, but it doesn't prove anything. Though I imagine there are other possibilities for bat to something to humans that don't involve wet markets. IIRC, it's been claimed that patient zero did not have a connection to the suspect market but otherwise we know nothing about this person. And, of course, given that there are asymptomatic people do we even know that patient zero was the first human to be infected?
 
Fast Eddie B said:
Current graphics from the same source:

[qimg]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49777188477_28aeb6f57a_z.jpg[/qimg]

No “flattening of the curve” yet apparent, so we may be able to expect another doubling over the next 2 weeks or so. But at least there’s something positive in that, for now, the growth rate seems to be linear rather than exponential.
Click to expand...

You're showing the linear plots. For something that has an exponential increase a linear plot drowns out earlier data. You need to look at the logarithmic plot to see a more accurate curve.
 
It would help if people would stop posting these moronic "everyone ever tested positive" graphs. Here's the latest from Germany:

[imgw=640]https://i.imgur.com/mwWIxDk.png[/imgw]
 
gypsyjackson said:
There's a big country which could make a lot of political capital from stepping in to fund WHO.
Click to expand...

Why would they want to make a lot of political capital?

They would still get painted with the " mean, capitalistic, I'm better than you " brush..

Besides, they're a little short right now, having plowed a couple of trillion back into their own economy.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Share this page

ISF - Join now!

Every member here is approved by hand. No bots, no spam, just people who care about evidence and honest debate.

Membership is free!

Create your free account

Back
Top Bottom