Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Belz...]

Let me know when the global death toll exceeds 200k. Until then you are the ones saying the sky is falling with no evidence.

Except that the time to respond to a crisis is not when it reaches the tipping point.

 

[Belz...]

APRIL FOOLS!

There was no virus. It was all a hoax!!

 

[Tero]

Do you have some evidence for saying masks are useless other than an assumption that if it passes through the air the masks cannot have any effect?

The masks were not designed for keeping viruses out. Surgical masks are for the benefit of the patient, not the surgeon. So all these masks volunteers are sowing are useless unless worn by sick people coughing.

For asymptomatic individuals, wearing a mask of any
type is not recommended. Wearing medical masks
when they are not indicated may cause unnecessary
cost and a procurement burden and create a false
sense of security that can lead to the neglect of other
essential preventive measures. For additional
information, see Advice on the use of masks in the
community, during home care and in healthcare
settings in the context of the novel coronavirus
(2019-nCoV) outbreak (8).

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf

Staff fitted for n95 mask had somewhat fewer cases of illness in 2008/2009 study of two diseases.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00198.x

 

[Mader Levap]

Huh? Nobody claimed it doesn't exist, what are you talking about?

Yet you are claiming that it is same as normal flu and you are suspicious that normal flu cases fall while COVID-19 rises...

And this isn't happening during "business as usual" times because we shut everything down! You can't shut everything down and use that as proof that this isn't "business as usual". I hope you see the logical fallacy there, that's a crazy argument.

You seem to not understand what I am saying. Let's try that again.

I was comparing "normal flu" with COVID-19.

I said: if COVID-19 under current circumstances (social distancing etc) behaves similarly to "normal flu" under normal circumstances (business as usual), then it is already worse than "normal flu".

No wait for more deaths/infected needed.

 

[Athyrio]

3773 31-Mar ...... End of 31 Mar ----40704527 1-Apr
5433 2-Apr
6519 3-Apr
7823 4-Apr
9388 5-Apr
11,266 6-Apr
13,519 7-Apr
16,223 8-Apr
19,467 9-Apr
23,361 10-Apr
28,033 11-Apr
33,640 12-Apr
40,368 13-Apr
48,442 14-Apr
58,130 15-Apr
69,756 16-Apr
83,708 17-Apr
100,449 18-Apr
120,539 19-Apr
144,647 20-Apr
173,577 21-Apr

Here we go.

 

[angrysoba]

The masks were not designed for keeping viruses out. Surgical masks are for the benefit of the patient, not the surgeon. So all these masks volunteers are sowing are useless unless worn by sick people coughing.

For asymptomatic individuals, wearing a mask of any
type is not recommended. Wearing medical masks
when they are not indicated may cause unnecessary
cost and a procurement burden and create a false
sense of security that can lead to the neglect of other
essential preventive measures. For additional
information, see Advice on the use of masks in the
community, during home care and in healthcare
settings in the context of the novel coronavirus
(2019-nCoV) outbreak (8).

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf

Staff fitted for n95 mask had somewhat fewer cases of illness in 2008/2009 study of two diseases.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00198.x

Yes, I did say that the main reason for discouraging the use of masks was because of the shortage.

However, I think it is likely that a lack of demand has led to a shortage, whereas in many countries such as in Asia, masks are commonly worn during flu season and there appears to be evidence that mask-wearing works!

The overall effectiveness of vaccination and mask wearing was 9.9% and 8.6%, respectively. After dividing children into higher (grades 4–6) and lower (grade 1–3) grade groups, the effectiveness of vaccination became greater in the lower grade group, and the effectiveness of wearing masks became greater in the higher grade group. These results may provide valuable information about designing infection control measures that allocate resources among children.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5153448/

Please also note that the same source you are quoting also contradicts your earlier claim that COVID-19 is transmitted "thru the air":

Based on the available evidence, the COVID-19 virus is
transmitted between people through close contact and
droplets, not by airborne transmission. The people most at
risk of infection are those who are in close contact with a
COVID-19 patient or who care for COVID-19 patients

ETA: It also appears that a lot of Western governments are finally beginning to change their mind on general populations wearing masks:

CDC guidance on masks remains under development, the federal official said. The official said the new guidance would make clear that the general public should not use medical masks — including surgical and N95 masks — that are in desperately short supply and needed by health-care workers.

Instead, the recommendation under consideration calls for using do-it-yourself cloth coverings, according to a second official who shared that thinking on a personal Facebook account. It would be a way to help “flatten the curve,” the official noted.

Such DIY cloth masks would potentially lower the risk that the wearer, if infected, would transmit the virus to other people. Current CDC guidance is that healthy people don’t need masks or face coverings.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...3e495c-7280-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html

 

[angrysoba]

APRIL FOOLS!

There was no virus. It was all a hoax!!

I did see someone posted an "April's Fool" meme of throngs of people marching to "Stop the Spread!"

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

The masks were not designed for keeping viruses out. Surgical masks are for the benefit of the patient, not the surgeon. So all these masks volunteers are sowing are useless unless worn by sick people coughing.

For asymptomatic individuals, wearing a mask of any
type is not recommended. Wearing medical masks
when they are not indicated may cause unnecessary
cost and a procurement burden and create a false
sense of security that can lead to the neglect of other
essential preventive measures. For additional
information, see Advice on the use of masks in the
community, during home care and in healthcare
settings in the context of the novel coronavirus
(2019-nCoV) outbreak (8).

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf

Staff fitted for n95 mask had somewhat fewer cases of illness in 2008/2009 study of two diseases.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00198.x

I don't know why the WHO organisation is still recommending not to use masks, other than the fact that they know full well there aren't enough to go round in most countries. There is lots of evidence that they are helpful.

A medical mask is definitely better than nothing, it may not have been designed to keep viruses out, but it can definitely reduce droplets transference, as it is made of several layers, the outermost of which has waterproofing treatment. The consensus at the moment still seems to be that this is passed via droplets or touch, rather than just airborne, so wearing a mask will definitely help.

Secondly, it also reduces the chance of asymptomatic patients who are wearing one spreading it. Those infected droplets are not getting out as much as if the patient was not wearing one, that's simply a fact. I don't buy the idea that simply wearing a mask makes the user think they are invulnerable, and thus doesn't bother with hand washing etc.

So if everyone, contagious and un-infected is wearing masks of some kind, the overall spread will be reduced.

This is borne out by countries like Macau, Singapore and Hong Kong, which have had similar distancing methods and travel restrictions to other countries, yet have a fraction of the cases of other countries, despite having their proximity to China and having the earliest of cases. The difference? Almost the entire population of those countries wear masks on a daily basis, as well as washing hands, and practicing social distancing.

Macao is right on the Chinese mainland, got 10 cases on Jan 22, they all got cured, and had no new ones until a few weeks ago. Even now they are at 41! Wearing masks.
Zero deaths.

Here in Hong Kong we had cases in late January then 1 or 2 a day and were holding around 100-200 until a blip that started in an Expat entertainment district 2 weeks ago. Guess what Expats don't do compared to the rest of the HK population? Wear masks. Even so, we are only on 750 now.
4 deaths.

Singapore, Jan 22 again for infections, holding steady at 900ish. Wearing masks.
3 deaths.

Taiwan, same early cases, now holding at 330 cases. Wearing masks.
5 deaths.

UK, Spain, Italy, Germany. First infections 1 week later than Asia. Not wearing masks.
UK 1,800 deaths.
Italy 12000 deaths
Spain 9000 deaths.
Germany 793 deaths.

Austria, first case 1 month later than HK, now 10,400 cases. Not wearing masks.
146 deaths.

Don't tell me masks don't do anything. If you have them you should wear them.
Whether you can get hold of them is another thing.

 

[EHocking]

I think you have to remember that is the individual isolation within the household. Other members of the household have to isolate for 14 days then if they get symptoms in that time they go into seven days isolation. Even once one is out of isolation social distancing rules still apply so there is minimal contact outside of your household.

And the UK is in police-enforced lockdown anyway.
They are confined to their houses whether someone tested positive or not.

 

[JeanTate]

Very readable and informative article from FiveThirtyEight: "Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model" (link).

Two snippets: "So why is that gap so wide? Well, friends, that’s the nature of modeling this beast. (And one of the reasons why FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have a model of its own. Thanks for your emails asking for one, though.)"

And: "There are several variables that go into those estimates — and each of those is, itself, variable. (Seriously, you guys, this is turtles all the way down.)"

OK, I chose the second one because it's a rare case of using this expression outside cosmology!

 

[JeanTate]

Speaking of FiveThirtyEight, they seem to have a weekly project, a report on a survey of experts.

Here's how it's described in the first article: "For the past five weeks, infectious disease researchers from institutions around the United States have been taking a survey that gathers their thoughts on the trajectory of the COVID-19 virus. The researchers come from academia, government and industry and are experts in modeling the spread of viruses like this one. The survey asks about things like how many people will eventually get COVID-19 and how many Americans will die." (link below).

The two so far are:
Infectious Disease Experts Don’t Know How Bad The Coronavirus Is Going To Get, Either (20 March, 2020)
Experts Say The Coronavirus Outlook Has Worsened, But The Trajectory Is Still Unclear (27 March, 2020)

Yeah, its scope is just the US. I wonder what the results of similar surveys in other countries (with large, diverse populations) would be (if they exist)?

 

[Planigale]

This is an impressive video.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-52...ndon-s-excel-centre-into-nightingale-hospital

 

[Delphic Oracle]

The self proclaimed experts are saying there will be 100,000 deaths in the US if we do the sort of extreme measures we are doing now. So, if we end up not doing nearly that bad, you'll be right.





Take a look, though, and make sure that those refrigeration trucks are actually a contingency. I don't think they are.

We are nowhere remotely close to extreme measures.

We have a patchwork of voluntary restrictions being somewhat adhered to in some hotspots.

 

[lomiller]

Quoting the CNN article:

"To find out, researchers looked at how widespread infections were among people repatriated to their home countries on flights from Wuhan, China."

I'm no longer familiar with expats (that's what the group the researchers studied is, right?), but they are surely not a good cross-section of any country's population, are they?

So we should treat 0.66% as some sort of lower bound, for people in developed economies, right?

There is another paper out available that age adjusts (to China) the death rates for the Diamond Princess that also projects a death rate in the 0.5% range (again for China, it would be higher for countries with older populations). The thing to remember about lower death rates is that they also imply a LOT more people have the virus than is currently reported. How many people ultimately become infected is a huge source of uncertainty, but low mortality rates suggest that the virus will ultimately infect a larger percentage of the population.

If 100 million people contract it in the US, a 0.7% mortality rate suggests 700K deaths. If 300 million people ultimately contract it in the US this suggests over 2 million deaths.

 

[Zambo]

Singapore, Jan 22 again for infections, holding steady at 900ish. Wearing masks.
3 deaths.

Taiwan, same early cases, now holding at 330 cases. Wearing masks.
5 deaths.

Singapore officially not wearing masks. The advice is wear masks if feeling unwell, if well no mask.

Taiwan are wearing masks and many office buildings won't let you in without one.

 

[crescent]

Here we go.

3773 31-Mar ...... End of 31 Mar ----40704527 1-Apr
5433 2-Apr
6519 3-Apr
7823 4-Apr
9388 5-Apr
11,266 6-Apr
13,519 7-Apr
16,223 8-Apr
19,467 9-Apr
23,361 10-Apr
28,033 11-Apr
33,640 12-Apr
40,368 13-Apr
48,442 14-Apr
58,130 15-Apr
69,756 16-Apr
83,708 17-Apr
100,449 18-Apr
120,539 19-Apr
144,647 20-Apr
173,577 21-Apr

I thought of that after making the post. I had posted in the middle of the day, with a start point I got by looking at the total on the Worldmeter site. But they run the totals "live", updating as information comes in. Which means that by the end of the day, the number I chose for March 31 was already 'wrong' in a sort of a way. Might have been better to have started with the previous day's totals, for an apples to apples comparison of the totals from the end of each day with the spreadsheet numbers. I don't think it makes a huge difference though - it's not exactly a precision scientific estimate, just a rough structure to promote dialogue..

 

[lomiller]

We have a vaccine for the flu. That helps prevent a flu epidemic every year. Covid-19 uses a new way to attack cells that we haven't been exposed to before. Think of native people when they were first exposed to European diseases.

Furthermore nearly all flue strains are relatively closely related to existing strains that have circulated before, so a lot of people have at least some resistance which slows the spread of the virus. It’s been hypothesized that the reason why H1N1 was abnormally hard on younger people is that people over 35 had already been exposed to a related strain.

The rapid spread of COVID 19 could indicate that there is no such protection built into the population.

 

[Zambo]

I thought of that after making the post. I had posted in the middle of the day, with a start point I got by looking at the total on the Worldmeter site. But they run the totals "live", updating as information comes in. Which means that by the end of the day, the number I chose for March 31 was already 'wrong' in a sort of a way. Might have been better to have started with the previous day's totals, for an apples to apples comparison of the totals from the end of each day with the spreadsheet numbers. I don't think it makes a huge difference though - it's not exactly a precision scientific estimate, just a rough structure to promote dialogue..

On the same website I see. "Assuming full mitigation: peak of 2,214 daily deaths on April 15". Now it is about 750 deaths a day so if I assume an average of 1,500 a day for 15 days and assume the peak lasts 5 days @ 2,200 a day then that gives a total by 20 April of:
4500 + 22,500 + 11,000 = 38,000.

 

[ceptimus]

Manyl countries are under-counting COVID-19 deaths in one way or another.

[a href="https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-30/tracking-the-coronavirus-why-does-each-country-count-deaths-differently.html"]El País news report (Spanish newspaper, but in English)[/a]

 

[ceptimus]

Broken forum software won't allow me to edit the malformed link in my previous post, so (hopefully) I'll get it right in this one.

https://english.elpais.com/society/...es-each-country-count-deaths-differently.html