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Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

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[utl=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html]This New York Times graph[/url] still has it as doubling every 5 days.
Bad syntax (should be url= not utl=).

The numbers from the WHO situation reports are for total global deaths, which does not appear in those NYT graphs (not that I could see anyway).

Calculating the interval over which numbers double is simple and straightforward, in a set of data that is assumed to be a time series. But even this can be ambiguous ... for example, how do you interpolate between adjacent times?

Making sense of the results from any such set of estimates quickly becomes difficult, however, for the WHO data.

For example, as at least one ISF member has pointed out, adjacent data points may not be 24 hours apart; sometimes they are time stamped 10:00 CET, sometimes something else. Then there’s the fact that the Grand Totals are the sum of numbers from over a hundred different sources, any subset of which likely has its own “24 hour” limitations (switching from/to Summer/Daylight Saving time is just one obvious one; weekends, public holidays, etc are others). And so on.

So estimated doubling times, for global Covid-19 deaths, must include considerable uncertainty. One reason why I am so glad we have the tilde character! :D
 
Newest TWIV is up. They have a german virologist on and makes it sound as if there really aren't asymptomatic cases. Its so weird to hear and read such sureity on both sides of this question so far along here. And also so little known on how it seems to transmit.

I've noticed a couple of Kraut doctors with odd opinions through all this. They might turn out to be right, but if I recall correctly, Germany had a couple of doctors named Hahnemann and Mengele.

In terms of transmission, I think the easy answer is to take all precautions. Universal masks, distancing, stay the **** home and get tested if you're sick, wash your hands, trace all contacts and test, test, test!

I think it's academic how much transmits by which method - we know it's not that hard to transmit, so reduce the avenues as far as possible.

Just another day in Moscow .. https://youtu.be/koB9TuqtYj4

I saw that earlier.

I want every dickhead promoting early opening to watch that video.
 
I've noticed a couple of Kraut doctors with odd opinions through all this. They might turn out to be right, but if I recall correctly, Germany had a couple of doctors named Hahnemann and Mengele.


There are more than you have noticed. Pressure by literally many dozens of highly qualified scientists on the government has been mounting recently. And an expert commission Merkel said she would listen to has published their study recommending a quick "exit". Tomorrow we will see when she meets with the state governments. As I've told you earlier she doesn't call the shots and it could be that different states will choose different exit strategies. There will definitely be movement soon, I predict.
 
Newest TWIV is up. They have a german virologist on and makes it sound as if there really aren't asymptomatic cases. Its so weird to hear and read such sureity on both sides of this question so far along here. And also so little known on how it seems to transmit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pw_O9jsJxk

He underlines presymptomatic spread as a certain thing and a real problem, but suggests asymptomatic is a matter of not noting a slightly sore throat and so on. Not entirely at odds with that important pregnant women study.

Worth a listen.
 
The most prominent of the "Kraut doctors" is Wolfgang Wodarg, here an early statement of his from March 13th, with English subtitles:


Since then he was kicked off of "Transparency International"'s board, not because anything he said has been proven wrong, but because he talked to "radical media". His private homepage has also been blocked at least twice.

A very interesting thing is that he was the one who exposed the "swine flu" fraud in 2009, against the "expert" who is now taking the role of Dr. Fauci in Germany. There's a stunning ARTE documentary most of you won't understand. Titled "Profiteure der Angst" - profiteurs of fear. For those who don't understand German there's this article which contains a brief summary of the events surrounding the swine flu hoax.
 
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And if you were looking for a connection to COVID severity with air pollution, maybe these other cities might be better candidates for study?


And if you were looking for a connection to COVID severity with air pollution, maybe these other cities might be better candidates for study?


Ah right, didn’t I say London as an example? We have extensive and reliable data for the pollution in London going back decades and it’s just up the road from me so I’d like to see the effect on it. But yes of course using other cities would be the ideal.
 
According to the Washington Post, an US State Department inspection of a research institute in Wuhan that was studying coronaviruses from bats found serious safety deficiencies at the lab.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...-studying-bat-coronaviruses/#comments-wrapper

Given that the Chinese 1) allowed all the "wet markets" to re-open and 2) still refuse to share information about SARS-COV-2 with the rest of the world, I am starting to pull back from my belief in the "wet market" theory.
 
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Yes, and I suppose that many Chinese medical professionals are as ashamed about the fact as they are in Cuba! You might as well have priests pray for coronavirus victims (which I'm sure they're already doing).

Many maybe, but I doubt most. Every doctor I've been to in China has been pro TCM.
 
I don't think other coronaviruses are asymptomatic, but influenza definitely can be, as shown by the H1N1 swine 'flu.


How would we know if a person with no symptoms was infected with one of the other coronavirus . . . Or flu for that matter? We only test sick people. In our office, we run a respiratory pathogen panel on people who have had a long duration flu-like illness that isn’t flu or strep. That usually turns up one of about 40 pathogens, including the other human Coronaviruses. We don’t run tests in people with no illness.

That seems to be a key issue right now: we don’t have a good idea of how many asymptomatic cases of Covid-19 there might be in the population. I can offer a data point of one: that employee of ours I told you about has never had symptoms.
 
I guess the Americans found their scapegoat.

Trump withdraws moneary support for WHO.
 

Bloody good job it's not as contagious as Covid-19 then!

Given that the Chinese 1) allowed all the "wet markets" to re-open and 2) still refuse to share information about SARS-COV-2 with the rest of the world, I am starting to pull back from my belief in the "wet market" theory.

3) Does it matter at this time?

How would we know if a person with no symptoms was infected with one of the other coronavirus . . .

Good point. We wouldn't know either way.
 
According to the Washington Post, an US State Department inspection of a research institute in Wuhan that was studying coronaviruses from bats found serious safety deficiencies at the lab.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...-studying-bat-coronaviruses/#comments-wrapper

Given that the Chinese 1) allowed all the "wet markets" to re-open and 2) still refuse to share information about SARS-COV-2 with the rest of the world, I am starting to pull back from my belief in the "wet market" theory.

The Chinese obviously allow massive transparency if they allow the US government to inspect their state research laboratories. I wonder how often the Chinese government are allowed to hold inspections of US government laboratories? Given how early the CIA were aware of the outbreak and the liklihood any such inspection would have included CIA input one wonders if the outbreak was triggered by the CIA? Perhaps a misconceived attempt to get samples of what the Chinese were working on rather than a deliberate event.

See how easy it is to take a few facts and create a narrative? Given we know that MERS comes from camels and not a Saudi research institute, and we know that SARS-CoV-2 shows all the features of a natural virus, the 'wet market' theory is not an unreasonable one. An escape from a laboratory is not impossible but one would expect early cases to be associated with a laboratory (see Birmingham smallpox outbreak).
 
**** Trump and everyone who supports him, this will devastate '******** countries'.

I don't think it's that big a deal - $600M isn't a lot in the current economic money print. Even piddly little countries like NZ could make up that deficit and not have the breathe too hard over it.

IMF or ECB will step in - if Bill Gates or Warren Buffett don't. Hell, if I were a billionaire, I'd pay it just to make him look bad.
 
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