2012 Electoral College Predictions

[Brainster]

I think Friday's unemployment report will determine the race. If it's bad (as I expect, given other indicators), Romney wins big. Neutral to positive, Obama wins a squeaker.

 

[NotJesus]

I think Friday's unemployment report will determine the race. If it's bad (as I expect, given other indicators), Romney wins big. Neutral to positive, Obama wins a squeaker.

You're kidding yourself.

 

[BenBurch]

I think Friday's unemployment report will determine the race. If it's bad (as I expect, given other indicators), Romney wins big. Neutral to positive, Obama wins a squeaker.

LOL!

Unless we find that it is three times what it was last report, it will not change a thing.

 

[BenBurch]

You're kidding yourself.

He still has Hope.

 

[remirol]

Report's in. Only 96,000 created, down from 141,000. Unemployment at 8.1% instead of 8.3%, but largely due to many people "stopping-looking".

Gonna stick with your prediction, Brainster? How "big"?

 

[Travis]

Report's in. Only 96,000 created, down from 141,000. Unemployment at 8.1% instead of 8.3%, but largely due to many people "stopping-looking".

Gonna stick with your prediction, Brainster? How "big"?

Funny how this "stopped looking" caveat is always attached to a drop these days. Around where I live the rate is dropping because people are actually finding jobs.

Is there no way for the unemployment rate to drop that it can't be spun into something bad somehow?

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Report's in. Only 96,000 created, down from 141,000. Unemployment at 8.1% instead of 8.3%, but largely due to many people "stopping-looking".

Gonna stick with your prediction, Brainster? How "big"?

He left himself plenty of fudge room. How does one determine whether or not this report was "bad" or "neutral to good"?

Not as good as predicted is objectively still "good" but can be spun as "bad".

 

[BenBurch]

Some of the job loss is seasonal work not happening because of the crop failure.

 

[Brainster]

Report's in. Only 96,000 created, down from 141,000. Unemployment at 8.1% instead of 8.3%, but largely due to many people "stopping-looking".

Gonna stick with your prediction, Brainster? How "big"?

I'll stick with my original prediction, with Romney winning about 320+/- EVs.

 

[NotJesus]

Apparently, Romney's even going to win states he's already given up on.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Apparently, Romney's even going to win states he's already given up on.

Same is true of Obama. IMO, the Obama campaign has given up prematurely here in MO. (Sad too, because the coattail effect might have repercussions for the absurdly close race between McCaskill and Akin.)

 

[MattusMaximus]

Now a 62% chance Obama will win FL. Up from 52% just a week ago. Looks like the nail in Romney's coffin has been hammered.

Now President Obama's odds of winning Florida are over 64% according to Nate Silver's analysis. If this trend continues, Romney is finished.

 

[MattusMaximus]

I'll stick with my original prediction, with Romney winning about 320+/- EVs.

To do that, Romney would have to take Pennsylvania, where he has been consistently out-polled by roughly 7% on average ever since mid-summer. Not to mention, Romney's campaign and his SuperPAC surrogates are pretty much pulling their ads out of PA.

So how is Romney supposed to miraculously "win" PA?

 

[MattusMaximus]

Romney gives up on PA and MI.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/romney-gop-michigan-pennsylvania-pull-out.php?ref=fpa

What does that do to the EC predictions?

It basically locks both states for President Obama.

This means that Romney's camp is going into panic mode. They won't call it that, but if they're giving up on PA and MI like that, they're panicking.

 

[Cain]

An article from 3 Quarks Daily titled "How to Abolish the Electoral College (Really)"

http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2012/07/how-to-abolish-the-electoral-college-really.html

He basically argues that Red States are close to signal red whereas purple states are slightly blueish. While the Electoral College has historically favored conservatives, perhaps the "emerging Democratic majority" has arrived, and small gains in certain states lead to lopsided Electoral victories.

In the conservative echo-chamber, Obama (or Obummer, Obozo) is a lazy, golf-playing dimwit who cannot function without a teleprompter. He's weak, Saudi-bowing idiot presiding over 8% unemployment. If they can't win this maybe they'll re-examine the rules of the game. Not enough to blame it all on the "liberal media."

 

[NotJesus]

According to Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com), Obama has a better than 90% chance of winning each of the following:

California
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington

He leads by double digits in most of them. In Connecticut, he leads by about 9, in Oregon and Pennsylvania by 7, and in Michigan by 3. Michigan looks pretty close but the Romney camp seems to have concluded they can't win it. Probably, "Let GM fail," dooms him there.

If Obama wins all those, that gives him 237 electoral votes. Ignoring the states that are leaning Romney's way, Obama needs 33 more electoral votes from:

Colorado -- 9
Florida -- 29
Iowa -- 6
Nevada -- 6
New Hampshire -- 4
Ohio -- 18
Virginia -- 13
Wisconsin -- 10

If Romney hits a grand slam between now and election day and wins all those states, he gets to 301. If he takes them all plus Michigan -- 317. That would be the absolute best case, dream scenario for him, and probably would require some catastrophic economic news, or a major Obama screwup.

Best case scenario for Obama: he sweeps the eight battleground states above, plus North Carolina (where Romney holds a narrow lead), and gets to 347. Or if Romney somehow finds a way to blow Missouri too -- 357.

 

[Cain]

Obama should go for the biggest electoral victory possible.

After Bush narrowly won the 2004 election, and almost won the 2000 election, he governed from the far-right, as if he had a "mandate." He got all the "political capital" that he intended to spend.

 

[Kaosium]

Obama should go for the biggest electoral victory possible.

After Bush narrowly won the 2004 election, and almost won the 2000 election, he governed from the far-right, as if he had a "mandate." He got all the "political capital" that he intended to spend.

When you use the term 'far right' just what do you mean? I'm just curious how you define that.

 

[Baylor]

I'll stick with my original prediction, with Romney winning about 320+/- EVs.

You have a better shot of beachnut, Gravy and Mackey going on Anderson Cooper claiming George Bush blew up the twin towers.

 

[Baylor]

I'll stick with my original prediction, with Romney winning about 320+/- EVs.

I think my prediction from three years ago is a little more accurate

My predictions:

Obama will beat Romney. He'll lose some battleground states but should win with 300-330 EVs.

I should win the million dollar challenge.