All of these predictions presume that the elections themselves, conducted by state and local authorities, will be on the up-and-up. But nobody's forgotten Florida 2000, and some people still wonder why the vote counts in Ohio in 2004 turned out to be so different from the exit poll predictions -- which had Kerry ahead, and which are usually pretty reliable. This year the new voter ID laws in some states pretty much guarantee that some qualified voters will be turned away from the polls, and others won't even make the effort. Many states still use computerized voting systems that create no paper records and may be subject to undetectable tampering. So what kinds of shenanigans are appearing on the horizon this year that could have an impact on the results of the election?
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2012 Electoral College Predictions
- Thread starter mikedenk
- Start date
JoeTheJuggler
Penultimate Amazing
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He should start talking about moon embassies. After all, his comments on embassies here on the Earth are only hurting his presidential bid.
NotJesus
Unsaviory
"The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy."
--Edwin Edwards (four-time Louisiana Governor), 1983
Corsair 115
Penultimate Amazing
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Yes, but as I recall the administration's suggestions for reform went over like a lead balloon with the public, and consequently the reform agenda was quietly dropped.
remirol
Senior Wrangler
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Yes, that's it -- thank you. (And he even still won after saying it.)
Shalamar
Dark Lord of the JREF
Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock.
Obama lost some ground. Neither he nor Romney seemed to get a "convention bounce." In fact, the exact opposite seemed to happen in the state in which the convention was held.
It's pretty obvious people get pissed when they have to take different route to work because everything barracaded thanks to these blowhard politicians. And that's showing in the polls. Parties need to rethink holding conventions in swing states.
It's pretty obvious people get pissed when they have to take different route to work because everything barracaded thanks to these blowhard politicians. And that's showing in the polls. Parties need to rethink holding conventions in swing states.
RandFan
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What is your basis for this?
Interesting question. It is my understanding that the House of Representatives (the incoming Congress, in this case the 113th) would select the next president. However, it would not be a vote for the majority of 435 reps - each state would only get one vote. So the delegation of each state would select one candidate to back, and that candidate would get one vote. First candidate to 26 wins. This gives a lot of power to lightly-populated states, since their vote counts as much as a big state.
The Vice President would be selected by the Senate - first candidate to 51 votes would be Veep. So in the case of an electoral tie, you would likely see a President Romney with a Vice President Biden.
Please add to and correct the above if necessary, it seems there is some controversy about the actual procedure.
Upchurch
Papa Funkosophy
Upchurch
Papa Funkosophy
It took me a minute to realize where you got that number. You're looking at the "Now-cast", which is how the election is likely to go if people had to vote today. The November 6 forecast is much more rigorous and, probably, accurate.
remirol
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Right (hence the qualifier
). The "right now" at the end is intended as "right this instant, this is how people feel". The numbers will certainly move before Election Day, but at the time it was posted, it was a reflection on "People are happy with Obama presently; something is going to have to happen to make them unhappy."Romney doesn't appear to be capable of campaigning on "I'm better and this is why"; the best he's got is "I'm not him" and hoping that things go bad. A recipe for failure if I've ever *coughKerrycough* seen one.
MattusMaximus
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At this stage, I would be surprised if President Obama didn't win the EC with 300+ votes.
RandFan
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If Obama is currently losing ground it does not mean that he did not get a bounce. Clearly he did.
not_so_new
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That would be pretty convincing and that's what Nate Silver is projecting as of today but I see that coming back down below 200 for the actual election. It just seems that we are more divided than that and Romney is going to pick up a lot of "anyone but Obama" votes.
Isn't anything over 300'ish usually considered a landslide? I just don't feel a landslide coming (although, according to Sliver it would perhaps turn out that way if all of Obama's actual supporters showed up, even if all of Romney's did as well).
Winning the states he's supposed to win, plus Ohio and Florida would put him right there at about 300.
I'd say 300+ is a pretty convincing win. Obama's win in '08 (365-173) was a pretty thorough rout. This race will be closer (Indiana and NC will very probably switch back to red for starters), but Obama could still get 300+.
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BenBurch
Gatekeeper of The Left
Anybody who ran as a Democrat in '08 would have won in a rout, though.
Even Kucinich.
ZirconBlue
Sole Survivor of L-Town
He's been campaigning pretty heavily in Colorado, knowing that a large percentage of people vote early there, so he has to get their vote now.