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Cont: The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 5

From Eric Topol's substack:

Shane Crotty: A Landmark Study on Upper Airway Mucosal Immunity
https://erictopol.substack.com/p/shane-crotty-a-landmark-study-on

This is the first time a Ground Truths podcast is being posted simultaneous with a new publication, this one in Nature, by Professor Shane Crotty and his colleagues at La Jolla Institute for Immunology.
....
Today’s paper in Nature is indeed a landmark contribution doing something that hasn’t been done before—to understand the underpinnings of mucosal immunity of the upper airway. 100 participants had monthly nasal and nasopharyngeal swabs throughout the pandemic. With a median of >100,000 cells per swab recovered , they undertook single-cell sequencing and full characterization of the cells (B, T, C4+, CD8+, tissue-resident cells, follicular T helper cells, germinal centers, etc) to determine optimal immune protection of the upper airway, the effect of infections by different variants, breakthrough infections, vaccination, and age.
 
Long Covid

This new review on #LongCovid @TheLancet is outstanding
https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01136-X/fulltext
by @trishgreenhalgh @sivanmanoj @DrAPerlowski and Janko Nikolich
Eric Topol (X, Aug 1, 2024)

Post-COVID-19 condition (also known as long COVID) is generally defined as symptoms persisting for 3 months or more after acute COVID-19. Long COVID can affect multiple organ systems and lead to severe and protracted impairment of function as a result of organ damage. (...) Although current approaches to long COVID care are largely symptomatic and supportive, recent advances in clinical phenotyping, deep molecular profiling, and biomarker identification might herald a more mechanism-informed and personally tailored approach to clinical care.
Long COVID: a clinical update (TheLancet/ScienceDirect, July 31, 2024)


As for Long Covid prevention:
Long COVID currently has no definitive cure, so prevention is of the utmost importance. The best way to prevent long COVID is to prevent COVID-19 through well established public health measures such as paying attention to indoor air quality (eg. ventilation or filtration); wearing well fitting, high-filtration masks or respirators when appropriate; and supporting infectious individuals to quarantine. People with acute COVID-19 should ensure they rest.
Vaccination is also crucial.


Ensuring they rest is the exact opposite of what is currently expected of top athletes with COVID-19, be it at Tour de France or at the Olympics.
 
Eric Topol on the current wave and details of how it differs from the early Omicron.

The Indomitable Covid Virus
https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-indomitable-covid-virus

Fortunately, the rise in levels of the virus, still going up in all 4 major US regions (most recent CDC data below) has not been linked with as much severe Covid (absolute increase) as was seen in prior waves, but compared to last week there was a relative increase of 25% of deaths and 12% increase in emergency room visits due to Covid.
...
The antigenic distance map below reflects that evolution. JN.1 is further way from the infamous Omicron BA.1 than BA.1 is from the major variants of 2020 and 2021 (Wuhan-ancestral, D614G, Alpha, Delta, Beta). KP.3 and KP.3.1.1. is to the right of JN.1 (not shown), even further away. The virus will not stop here, despite our desire to will it way. It will continue to find new ways to infect and reinfect us, under selection pressure from our prior immunity (be it infections, vaccinations, or combinations).
...
Added to problem of the virus‘s evolution and, as a result, is the blunting of our immune response, the big issue of waning immunity. The vaccine boosters only last 4-6 months for protection from severe Covid, do little after early weeks for any protection from infections or spread. The same goes for infections. Neutralizing antibody levels go down. Our interferon first line of defense gets blocked (Shane Crotty called this the “superpower of SARS-CoV-2” in our podcast this week).
 
Interpretation
Psychiatric and cognitive symptoms appear to increase over the first 2–3 years post-hospitalisation due to both worsening of symptoms already present at 6 months and emergence of new symptoms. New symptoms occur mostly in people with other symptoms already present at 6 months. Early identification and management of symptoms might therefore be an effective strategy to prevent later onset of a complex syndrome. Occupation change is common and associated mainly with objective and subjective cognitive deficits. Interventions to promote cognitive recovery or to prevent cognitive decline are therefore needed to limit the functional and economic impacts of COVID-19.
Cognitive and psychiatric symptom trajectories 2–3 years after hospital admission for COVID-19: a longitudinal, prospective cohort study in the UK (TheLancet, July 31, 2024)


What's the use of that old brain anyway, right?!
 
If you're not familiar with Susan Oliver (and Cindy), you should give her (them) a chance in spite of the immediate impression you may get the first time you click on one of her YouTube videos.
The first time I heard her intro, i.e. "Hello, and welcome to Back to the Science. I'm Dr. Susan Oliver and I'm a scientist, and this is Cindy Oliver, and she's a dog," I thought, No, you're not. I don't have to listen to this crap. It didn't make it any better that she asks people to "Buy me a coffee (or Cindy a treat) https://buymeacoffee.com/susanandjulie". I'm not sure if Julie died and was replaced or if she just changed her name.
I only gave Back to the Science another chance when I saw one of the guys at Science-Based Medicine recommend one of her analyses.

The results of a recent study looking at cardiovascular safety following vaccination are devastating for antivaxxers who like to scare people by falsely claiming vaccines are causing increases in cardiovascular events. The study clearly shows that the lies they have been grifting off are bollocks.
Cardiovascular events after COVID vaccine. The SHOCKING truth! (Back to the Science on YouTube, Aug 7, 2024 - 12:07 min.

That she is also antivaxxer John Campbell's Nemesis contributes to my admiration for her.
He is so full of it!

Dr. Susan Oliver (PhD) is also on X.
 
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If you're not familiar...

:dl:

Who's the "you" you're referring to?

Nobody's taking any notice of you, as evinced by the zero responses you get, and visitors are barred from the site.

You're talking to an empty room.

But do carry on.
 
Who's the "you" you're referring to?

Nobody's taking any notice of you, as evinced by the zero responses you get, and visitors are barred from the site.

You're talking to an empty room.

But do carry on.
Well, I do take notice, I just don’t have anything new to say.
 
Ditto. To both threads.

Not taking sides. I find dann's factual posting persuasive. But then so are the other side's posts, oftentimes, including The Atheist's as well. And in any case, regardless of which side scores, the ongoing discussion on these two threads means I generally stay abreast of what's up, at a time when generally I don't much check the news for this.

Like I said, not taking sides. Just, I dislike rhetorical tricks like these on general principles, this using of ridicule and (incorrect, inaccurate) accusations of irrelevance, to shut down an opponent, particularly given how sincerely and painstakingly and consistently they present their facts. So I thought to post this. I take notice, as well, for what that is worth.
 
So I thought to post this. I take notice, as well, for what that is worth.

Fair enough.

Given the hours of work, I'd be looking for a much bigger audience than half a dozen, but people have weird hobbies, I guess.
 
Yes, some people have the hobby of spreading disinformation on a skeptics' forum.
How weird is that?!
I notice that the audience just grew from nobody to half a dozen.
Great!
:)

ETA: Is it a coincidence that yet another Trumpian debate tactic has come into play, pooh poohing the opponent's crowd size?
And in the Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology subforum, of all places!
 
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ZDoggMD finally gets Covid after 4.5 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0t3CqFYeaVo

I like this video because it gives the doctor's perspective on the symptoms and how it differs from other illnesses. Interesting fellow because he is friends with both Dr. Paul Offit and Dr. Vinay Prasad. Very reasonable doc though I'm not into the mediation stuff that seems to fascinate him.

His daughter got Covid at camp a few days earlier, came home, then he got it. She tested positive with a rapid test. Initial rapid test for ZDoggMD was totally negative even though he had strong symptoms then strong positive the next day. Has some distortion in sense of smell/taste. Typical range of symptoms. Is recovering. Says he will report on any long term issues.

His wife hasn't gotten Covid and still is negative. She also had current boosters. ZDoggMD has not had recent boosters.


No, he is not a "Very reasonable doc." ZDoggMD is a numbskull! He is an MD, he has a condition, two genes that predispose him for blood clots, and yet he hasn't had a booster shot since 2021!
Maybe he shouldn't listen to Vinay Prasad and other minimizers, antivaxxers and antimaskers.
The day my COVID got worse…
(ZDoggMD on YouTube, Aug 8, 2024 - 25:52 min.)

As for not being "into the mediation stuff that seems to fascinate him," this guy is a ******* new age guru!
16:45-19:38: ... so that's the emptiness thread. You askyou ask the question, 'What still feels real? What still feels solid. What still feels here and present, can that be deconstructed?' And let go.
For the love thread, you could ask the question, 'What's here in my experience now that makes
things feel separate or seems in opposition to unconditional love for everything?' And you can look go, 'Oh man, I'm really mad at this guy!' Okay, let'sfeel into that. So what is it the sense that I'm apart from them? The sense that we're in conflict in some way. And that thread can continue to refine and deepen.
For the energy thread you could ask the question, 'What is it here that still feels solid,
that doesn't feel Dynamic and in motion constantly in flux?' So you can feel like, 'Oh, the body
feels like energy, but this table feels solid, feels static.' Ah, so you know as that thread evolves that that table is going to start to look like it does in the Matrix, just vibrating, oscillating condensed energy.
In the unconscious thread, you could ask the question, 'What is it here that hasn't been allowed, that hasn't been felt in Consciousness fully, that hasn't been liberated? What inner trauma, what inner child, what inner ancestor, what inner experience hasn't been allowed into the light of
awareness? Hasn't integrated into the one soul?'
And you could ask that question, and you know at some point it's going to come. [Giggles!]
And so, you can attune in a way.
So in a sense, it's a beautiful model that validates the experience you're having. By the way, those four threads are only the most common. So, it, there's probably an infinite number of threads.
So whatever you're experiencing is right! It is right!. [Creepy guru laugh!]
What a relief! That's the good news! There are so many people who are banging their head against the wall going, 'I'm not having stage three Awakening! I haven't had non-dual perception! I haven't experienced emptiness! I haven't had a mindblowing Kundalini experience! I don't feel like everything is love!'
That's fine. It's okay. You're perfect.
This goes as it goes for you, and just knowing this can - I know it did for me, and I know it did for the friend who turned me on to this - it can create an opening, it can dissolve a resistance
pattern to what's actually happening for you. And then, then you start to go back and realize, 'Oh, oh', because it's often seen in retrospect this has been happening the
whole time.
Your awakening will never fit THEIR mold, here's why. (ZDoggMD on YouTube, May 27, 2024 - 28:30 min.)
The creepy laugh is at 18:45, if anybody feels like cringing. The rest is as boring as it is moronic.

This isn't meditation. This is full-blown new age nonsense.
It also isn't somehow exterior to his attitude to the pandemic and to the worst of the very worst COVID-19 minimizers. It is no coincidence that ZDoggMD can nod and smile when he lets Vinay Prasad spread pandemic disinformation:
Whatever you're experiencing is right! It is right!
This, by the way, is Vinay Prasad: The Epidemic of #DiedSuddenly (TheFreePress, Jan 25, 2023).

It is also no coincidence that one of the comments to his latest video has to remind him of the pandemic facts:
You're describing the second week cytokine storm that occurs with covid, often mistakenly called "Paxlovid rebound" even though it also happens for people who don't take Paxlovid. This Week in Virology's weekly Clinical update with Dr. Daniel Griffin discusses the different phases of the covid infection, and advises doctors on treatment recommendations for each phase.
To ZDoggMD, even his bout with Covid is all about the experience. It is the experience of somebody who knows about medicine, but still. What a stupid *******!
 
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PEM

While watching ZDoggMD's YouTube video (the new one), I was reminded of a problem with SARS-CoV-2 infections and exercise, post-exertional malaise (PEM), but forgot about it again.
He started exercising while he was still testing positive.

Post-exertional malaise (PEM) is fatigue and worsening of symptoms following even minor physical or mental exertion. It is commonly reported by people with post COVID-19 condition, and can impair their ability to exercise, work or go about daily activities. In this webinar, you will hear how to identify post-exertional malaise, and interventions to support patients and aid recovery.
Post-Exertional Malaise (PEM) and Long Covid (WHO)


I tried to continue my exercise routine through my first SARS2 infection and haven’t recovered in four years. I cannot safely do anything that elevates my heart rate without lots of medication(anti-seizure, vasoconstrictors, etc…) and days of bedrest. Tens of millions like me.

I was asymptomatic and unaware of the dangers of exercise during an acute viral infection.

Meds: multiple anti-seizure, multiple migraine, multiple wakefulness, multiple blood pressure all of which stop working if I do too much all because I use to be exceptionally active. Long Covid gets everyone.
Dr. Michael (X, Aug 9, 2024)
 
In 2023, covid dropped to 10th on the cause of death in USA.

And will continue falling.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7331a1.htm

Despite all your shrieking about the new variants, the damage done by covid continues to fall everywhere on the planet. It's now just a cold and far less damaging than influenza, except for those with toe-tags printed, in which case it's a very good thing.

OMG, some people are dying weeks early from covid!
 
The Atheist is making wild predictions, "And will continue falling," based on absolutely nothing, as usual.
And as usual, he mixes it with outright lies, "OMG, some people are dying weeks early from covid!," his tired old 'toe-tag' fairy tale. It was never true, and it still isn't.
It is his false argument for not caring about people (of all ages) dying from this disease, and since it seems to be his one and only concern, he will probably never give up on the lie.

He may not have noticed, but the excess mortality has increased considerably since the pandemic began - and not by weeks.
Excess mortality: Cumulative deaths from all causes compared to projection based on previous years (Nordics, Australia)
Australia is as high as it is because its population is more than twice that of Sweden.

What is interesting is the difference between when the great dying started in countries that had almost no restrictions at the early stage of the pandemic and in countries where it didn't start until they claimed that all precautions other than vaccinations were unnecessary because 'hybrid immunity', i.e. the post-vax version of herd immunity by infection, was 'super immunity'.
Excess mortality: Cumulative deaths from all causes compared to projection based on previous years (DK, NZ)
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (DK, NZ, AUS)

However, it is apparent that the excess mortality has dropped considerably, that the 'curve' has been 'flattened', mainly due to the decrease in C19 deaths:
"The COVID-19 death rate decreased from 2022 to 2023 for all age groups." (CDC)
Excess mortality: Cumulative deaths from all causes compared to projection based on previous years (USA)
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people

On X, Eric Topol has copied graphics from a JAMA article:
Look how the leading causes of death in the US have changed over the past 4 years
@JAMA_current
Leading Causes of Death in the US, 2019-2023 (JAMA)
Eric Topol (X, Aug 8, 2024)
(See graphics in tweet)
Still ~50,000 Covid deaths in 2023
Compared with pre-pandemic
Heart disease and stroke are not declining
Small reduction in cancer deaths
Eric Topol (X, Aug 8, 2024)

It is really no surprise that heart disease and stroke are not declining since COVID-19 infections contribute to both. In fact, the ranking of stroke, Alzheimer, diabetes and kidney disease as causes of death all rose from 2022 to 2023, and we know that COVID-19 leads to an increase of all four diseases and deaths from those diseases as well as of heart disease.
Of the 10 leading causes of death, C19 is the only infectious disease.


ETA:
* Report finds 5% more deaths in Australia in 2023 than expected
* Covid’s after-effects are resetting baseline of illness, death

Australians are still dying at higher rates than before the pandemic, reflecting how Covid-19’s lingering effects may be driving a sustained increase in death and disease around the globe.
Excess mortality – the increase above the expected toll had the pandemic not occurred – was 5% for Australia in 2023, the Sydney-based Actuaries Institute said in a report Monday, significantly higher than the 1-2% excess seen in years of crushing seasonal influenza epidemics.
Excess Deaths in Australia Reveal Covid’s Long, Lethal Tail (Bloomberg, July 28, 2024)
 
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HIV and Long Covid - viral persistence

In a considerable number of Long Covid patients, the virus persists, so it makes sense to test if drugs against HIV may help them fight their persistent SARS-CoV-2:
In a study released in mid-July, scientists at the Wistar Institute in Philadelphia showed how microbial changes in the intestines of some people living with HIV increased their risk for developing long Covid after a SARS-CoV-2 infection. At the University of California, San Francisco, infectious diseases doctors have applied their expertise looking for HIV reservoirs in the body to track vestiges of the coronavirus in ‘long haulers.’
Now, researchers are looking at whether medications used to treat or prevent HIV may also alleviate long Covid symptoms.
Treatments For Long Covid Draw on Decades-Long HIV Research (Bloomberg, July 29, 2024)
 
C19 death toll 2023

In post 537, I quoted Eric Topol talking about "~50,000 Covid deaths in 2023" in the USA.
It appears to be 50% more than that, according to this CIDRAP article:
Provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) on the top causes of deaths in the United States in 2023 shows COVID-19 dropped to the tenth leading cause of death. In 2022, it was the fourth leading cause of death, meaning deaths from COVID dropped by 68.9% in 1 year.
There were 76,446 deaths from COVID-19 in 2023, and 245,614 in 2022. In 2023, the leading causes of death in the United States were heart disease (680,909 deaths), cancer (613,331), and unintentional injury (222,518).
COVID drops to 10th leading cause of death in US (CIDRAP, Aug 8, 2024)

I got the number 75,663 when I looked at the CDC page earlier today.
When I look at the 2024 numbers from Dec 30, 2023, to July 13, 2024, I get 26,751 C19 deaths.

A reply to Topol's tweet says:
It’s strange that their total for deaths involving covid doesn’t jibe with the official (@cdcgov) total over the same period.
Their number (1,004,204) is 14% lower than the official one (1,171,237).
Model-based estimates suggest the official count is a ~50% undercount, iirc.
Arijit Chakravarty (X, Aug 8, 2024)
It mentions the number 76,024 for 2023 and 27,863 for 2024, so far.
 
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Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children after COVID-19

Scientists now have an answer to a mysterious severe illness that put many children on the verge of dying after COVID complications. https://abc7ne.ws/3YKybRv
San Francisco scientists crack case of severe illness in kids after COVID (ABC7 News Bay Area on YouTube, Aug 10, 2024)

It was 2020, Dr. Aaron Bodansky kept seeing a high number of children coming into the ICU with a mysterious inflammatory disease.
"They had severe inflammation of all their bodies but in particular their lungs and really their hearts."
It turns out this was happening to children across the world, and no one knew why. The illness came to be known as multi system inflammatory syndrome in children or MIS-C.
"The only thing we knew was that they had previously had a SARS-CoV-2 infection."
As cases intensified, doctors suspected that the severe inflammation was connected to the immune system. To keep children alive, medical personnel acted on that hunch.
"We used medicines to suppress and calm their immune system, which thankfully worked extremely well to save their lives."
Dr. Bodansky remembers reaching a breaking point after seeing one of his patients.
"We had to put a breathing tube in and put on medicines to essentially induce a coma. It was really hard to look the parents in the eyes and just tell them that we had no idea what was happening, and I didn't want to have to keep doing that."
After this, he contacted some of the top infectious diseases experts and scientists in the area, the pivotal figure Dr. Joe DeRisi. Together they collaborated with the CDC and hospitals across the country to collect nearly 200 blood samples.
"This has been a puzzle that researchers and clinicians across the country, and in fact across the world, have tried to figure out. And yet it has eluded almost everyone until now."
After years in this lab, they cracked the case.
"So the moment was realizing that that unusual reaction to COViD matched something in our own immune system, so it acquired a target against COVID that matched us. So it was attacking both at the same time."
Now they're hoping to use their findings to advance science.
"Knowing that a virus can provoke an autoimmune reaction later on and having this proof allows us to potentially develop therapeutics and diagnostics for anything like this that might occur in the future."
Now these scientists are hopeful this finding will help understand other diseases, including type 1 diabetes or MS.


SF scientists crack case of severe illness that put children 'on death's door' after COVID (ABC7 News, Aug 10, 2024)
 
The Atheist is making wild predictions, "And will continue falling," based on absolutely nothing, as usual.
ETA:

Don't be absurd - it's based on actual numbers, as presented.

The death rate has fallen by massive amounts, so feel free to continue lying that it hasn't, because even the dumbest moron alive can tell that it has, and so have hospitalisation rates.
 
"actual numbers"

Actual numbers, in this case, are the numbers of COVID-19 deaths reported by hospitals and coroners. The death rate has indeed "fallen by massive amounts" from 2022 to 2023. Based on those numbers, The Atheist makes a prediction of what will happen from 2023 to 2024, which is ludicrous, but I am not sure that the dumbest moron alive will be aware that the prediction that the numbers "will continue falling" is a prediction that doesn't take the current state of the pandemic into account:
the number of people getting boosters, the steady growth in new, more immune evasive variants, and the number of people with all kinds of sequelae after their earlier bouts with COVID-19. It also doesn't take into account the current surge in new cases all over the world.
In other words, The Atheist's prediction is based on his wishful thinking, which was also in denial of anything like the current wave actually happening just a few months ago immediately before it began:
Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...


I mentioned the current number of deaths in post 539, and unlike The Atheist, I can do so without coming up with predictions, optimistic or pessimistic. I can do so because I don't have an agenda like The Atheist: to make it seem as if the pandemic will disappear (or that it will get worse). So far, the pandemic has been unpredictable, and nothing we've seen so far makes it appear as if it is becoming predictable. On the contrary, the only thing that has been consistent is that SARS-CoV-2 is getting increasingly contagious and immune evasive.

Based on the most recent numbers, I guess that COVID-19 may kill approximately as many in 2024 as it did in 2023, but I don't know and I can't know because it depends on a lot of other things that I also are also unpredictable:
Will people start getting booster shots again? (Vaccine manufacturers seem to think that they won't.)
Will they still be able to get Paxlovid? (If people have to pay for it themselves, many can't afford it. In some countries, the vast majority of people don't have access to it.)
Will other, better, vaccines and/or medications be developed? Will they be affordable?
Will new strains of the virus be able to evade the new vaccines and medications? (So far, yes, apparently.)
Will people continue to listen to minimizers and drop all precautions because they confuse 'learning to live with the virus' with learning to ignore the virus?
Will governments and corporations realize that ignoring the virus comes at a bigger cost than taking precautions? (Probably not; see the NPR article I link to in post 1,086 in the other pandemic thread.)
Will CEOs and politicians continue to protect themselves but refuse to protect their populations with improved ventilation, air filtration and similar precautions? (See [url=https://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=14363295#post14363295]the thread focussing on this question
.)
Will people continue to accept the current state of affairs? (They probably will, unfortunately.)

All of these things don't enter into the picture when people are obsessed with minimizing the virus, and that makes their predictions utterly ridiculous and moronic - based on wishful thinking as they are even when they claim to be based on "actual numbers."
It's the kind of thinking that makes absurd predictions like this 'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that," which is probably never going to change.
How is that for a prediction?
 
Reality Check

I don't consider this to be an important question, and I was not the one who brought it up in the first place:
Nobody's taking any notice of you, as evinced by the zero responses you get, and visitors are barred from the site.
You're talking to an empty room.
Yes, I'm sure there's one other as well, so 2 of you is good.
Given the hours of work, I'd be looking for a much bigger audience than half a dozen, but people have weird hobbies, I guess.
Yes, some people have the hobby of spreading disinformation on a skeptics' forum.
How weird is that?!
I notice that the audience just grew from nobody to half a dozen.
Great!
:)
ETA: Is it a coincidence that yet another Trumpian debate tactic has come into play, pooh poohing the opponent's crowd size?
And in the Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology subforum, of all places!


However, it did make me curious: How many people do actually watch (or at least click on) a thread like this one? The 'syndrome' thread, for instance, sometimes had 10,000 views a month when it could still be accessed by people who aren't ISF members. Back then, I sometimes linked to specific ISF posts on Twitter/X because it was easier than writing a long thread there.

But back to the the question of the number of views of this thread:
From Friday morning, Aug 9, 8:18 a.m. (CEST), to Monday morning, Aug 11, 9:27 a.m. (CEST), it had 155 views, i.e. approximately 50 views every 24 hours.
Now I can't wait for the reply to this post telling me that in the very near future, the number is "going to be much lower than that." :dl:
 
I watch this thread, but unlike The Atheist, prefer to limit how much I insert my opinion, in a Science thread.

I would presume that other members, being familiar with the idea that Science threads are for Science, do the same.
 
I watch this thread, but unlike The Atheist, prefer to limit how much I insert my opinion, in a Science thread.

What total bollocks.

Most of what Dann posts is opinion, insofar as he often posts pieces from Twatter, YouTube and other feeble sites to support his position.

One of his most frequent links is to a self-admitted Marxist organisation whose newspaper isn't worth using in the toilet.

A good example is my mentioning the verifiable extreme drop in death rate. Dann's response? To offer his opinion that some alleged increase in excess mortality is due to covid.

Face facts - only an insignificant and minuscule minority of people want to see covid as a problem. As commented the other day, some people want to believe the sky is falling, and spend hours and hours trying to convince others of their fears.

Like Flat Earthers, they'll always few idiots buying their garbage.

The enormous majority of people don't care about covid, don't want to read about it, and certainly don't want some random bloke on the internet crying about wearing masks in 2024. Go talk to some actual people and find out what they think.
 
Another opinion piece from The Atheist, bereft of facts and science as usual. A total meltdown worthy of a former president who also resorts to lies and hyperbole and whose pandemic opinions The Atheist shares. I particularly love this argument being posted in a Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology subforum: "Go talk to some actual people and find out what they think."

As for the "increase in excess mortality" being "due to covid," let us see what science has to say:

Conclusions
Excess mortality has remained high in the Western World for three consecutive years, despite the implementation of containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines. This raises serious concerns. Government leaders and policymakers need to thoroughly investigate underlying causes of persistent excess mortality.
Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since the COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Our World in Data’ estimates of January 2020 to December 2022 (BMJ, June 3, 2024)


Interpretation
The observed geographic disparities in total mortality excess across Europe can be related to differences in socioeconomic contexts, as well as to suboptimal vaccine uptakes in some countries.
Impact of COVID-19 on total excess mortality and geographic disparities in Europe, 2020-2023: a spatio-temporal analysis (TheLancet, July 3, 2024)

But what does suboptimal vaccine uptakes have to do with excess mortality, right?! It's totally unrelated to COVID-19, and has nothing to do with it. Instead of paying for costly studies, government leaders and policymakers should just go talk to some actual people, like The Atheist, because scientists and people on the internet aren't people. Not actual people.
 
Excellent thread on X - with a reference to the "actual people" that The Atheist wants us to "go talk to."
1. This is an excellent question. To understand how Covid-19 has become a taboo subject, there are a number of factors that must be considered.

First, the dynamic that exists between governments, public health, the media, and healthcare professionals.
Why is it that nobody in the public sphere dares talk about covid? No politicians, no journalists, no commentators. Whatever people's ideas on it, it exists. The radio silence is frankly sinister. Friends yesterday said 'it's not serious anymore is it?'J Green
Conor Browne (X, Aug 12, 2024)


It's hyperbole to say that "nobody in the public sphere dares talk about covid," but it's not far from the truth. There are some people in the public sphere who dare, the ones who know about the science of the pandemic and aren't too worried about what it will do to their careers to talk about it.

The articles I post in the other thread are often written by people like that and based on interviews with scientists like that. And those articles are rarely out there for everybody to stumble on. You don't usually find them unless you actively search for them or follow people on X who do, which means that The Atheist's "enormous majority of people" never see them, which is why they think what they think. They are being disinformed, and The Atheist wants it to stay that way.
 
Instead of his odds, I wish The Atheist would take it upon himself to find the actual numbers.
As for children under the age of five: Last week, seven 0-2-year-olds were hospitalized for COVID-19 in Denmark (pop. "5,980,294 as of Monday, August 12, 2024" according to Worldometer). A baby is probably much more likely to get hospitalized for COVID-19 than people in any other age group. 0-2-year-olds are a very small age group. 49 were hospitalized in the 80+ age group.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/220fef27d07d438889d651cc2e00076c/page/Covid-19-Regionalt/
 
Ironic.
While some people continue to screech their fear of covid, influenza is a much worse disease.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13733595/Queensland-flu-seven-years-vaccine.html
Tellingly:

I'll give 10:1 odds there aren't 28 children under 5 because of covid in the entire rest of the world right now.


Ironic indeed that The Atheist resorts to a weird Daily Mail article to support his position after complaining about "Twatter, YouTube and other feeble sites."

Could there be a reason why the Daily Mail focuses on the flu and pretends that COVID-19 doesn't exist. I mean, could there?

This AMA article, Flu, COVID affecting elective surgery (AMA Queensland, July 8, 2024), is interesting: The two studio hosts obey the ruling journalistic principle: Don't mention Covid!: "a surge in flu cases ... How much of a difference does the flu vaccine make? ... we know the flu can be dangerous."

But Dr. Emilia Dauway doesn't let them get away with it: "Well, actually, in terms of COVID and the flu ... Well, last month we had, between just COVID and the flu, we had 5,000 cases in Queensland and we have 500 people that are hospitalised currently.

Unfortunately, Dr. Emilia Dauway isn't there to correct the Daily Mail's 'journalist'. It shows!
Queensland set for worst flu seasonAbout 4,000 people admitted to hospital so far
Experts urging residents to get flu vaccineREAD MORE: Virus outbreak in Queensland as children hospitalizations double

It's this kind of reporting that makes ignorant readers think that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is over, as if not mentioning COVID-19 and conflating it with the flu and all other virus will make it go away: Don't mention COVID-19! Whatever you get from now on is the flu, a virus, a cold or allergies.

The comments section is enlightening!
 
Immune Evasion

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant JN.1 recently emerged as the dominant variant despite having only one amino acid change on the spike (S) protein receptor binding domain (RBD) compared with the ancestral BA.2.86, which never represented more than 5% of global variants. To define at the molecular level the JN.1 ability to spread globally, we interrogated a panel of 899 neutralizing human monoclonal antibodies. Our data show that the single leucine-455–to–serine mutation in the JN.1 spike protein RBD unleashed the global spread of JN.1, likely occurring by elimination of more than 70% of the neutralizing antibodies mediated by IGHV3-53/3-66 germlines. However, the resilience of class 3 antibodies with low neutralization potency but strong Fc functions may explain the absence of JN.1 severe disease.
(...)
However, the massive evasion of the class 1/2 antibodies by JN.1 may increase pressure on class 3 and 4 epitope regions, and we may soon expect the emergence of variants escaping these classes of antibodies. The recently reported SARS-CoV-2 variants KP.2, introducing the mutation R346T, and KP.3, carrying the mutation Q493E, are predicted to escape class 3 and 1/2 nAbs, respectively.
SARS-CoV-2 JN.1 variant evasion of IGHV3-53/3-66 B cell germlines (Science Immunology, Vol. 9, No. 98, Aug 20, 2024)


This may be the reason why we hear people complaining about current infections (FLiRT and FLuQE) being worse than previous infections.
 
One of his most frequent links is to a self-admitted Marxist organisation whose newspaper isn't worth using in the toilet.


Unlike the Daily Mail, I assume.
They definitely are ... different:
The UK is in the middle of a new COVID-19 wave, driven by the summer holiday season and exacerbated by large-scale sporting events, such as the UEFA Euro 2024 football tournament.
Other summer events such as Taylor Swift concerts, Glastonbury and other festivals have exacerbated the spread. Swift is playing to almost 700,000 people just at her Wembley Stadium residence in London in June and August.
(...)
There were 3,557 COVID cases in the week ending July 17 according to the official UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) dashboard, a 4.5 percent increase from the previous week and approximately three times as many as in March this year. Deaths have risen by 20 percent week on week and stood at 197 on July 12 and 2,797 people were admitted to hospital with COVID in the final week of June.
(...)
Supporting this, high street healthcare retailer Superdrug reported a 319 percent spike in sales of its COVID lateral flow tests, alongside a 297 percent increase in cold and flu relief sachets, suggesting a surge of illness across Britain.
(...)
The coverage that still exists promotes a generally criminal complacency towards the deadly and debilitating disease, such as this quote from Professor Mark Woolhouse in the Independent: “Over the coming decades, we will shift to a situation where most people are exposed to Covid—possibly several times—when they are young. This will not cause a significant public health problem— healthy young people were never much affected by Covid—but it will result in a build-up of immunity that will make them much less vulnerable when they are elderly and frail.”
This ignores the fact that rather than “building-up” immunity, repeated infections have been shown to increase the risk of serious illness, including Long COVID, a debilitating condition that has been dubbed the “pandemic within the pandemic”.
Holiday season, Euro 2024 tournament, music festivals, and lack of vaccines fuel UK COVID wave] (WSWS, July 29, 2024)


Is it possible that ISIS just helped Austria avoid a couple of super-spreader events?!
Taylor Swift Austria Shows Cancelled Over ISIS Terror Plot (Forbes, Aug 8, 2024)

It is easy to see why articles like the one from WSWS will upset some people:
The evolution and rapid global spread of the new variants of the virus is a product of the ruling class’s refusal to address the pandemic.
Workers in Britain and internationally must take heed of the ongoing dangers posed by the virus and fight for a preventive strategy against COVID-19 and other public health threats. Such a strategy must be funded by the hoarded wealth of the corporations and the super-rich, and organised democratically and scientifically, not subordinated to the demands of the capitalist labour market.


After all, some people panic at the mere suggestion that indoor ventilation and air purification - even in schools - should be considered. They see it as an affront to the accumulation of wealth by billionaires ...
 
The enormous majority of people don't care about covid, don't want to read about it, and certainly don't want some random bloke on the internet crying about wearing masks in 2024. Go talk to some actual people and find out what they think.


I tend to agree with The Atheist on this one: Do go talk to some actual people and find out what they think about masks, but don't stop there! Tell them why they are wrong!
Here's some random dude on the internet spreading science about wearing masks in 2024. He may come in handy when talking to actual people who have been misinformed:
N95 Masks Nearly Perfect at Blocking COVID, Study Finds.

📌So-called “duckbill” N95 masks scored highest in the study, which measured the exhaled breath of participants who were tested both masked and unmasked to measure comparative outputs of SARS-CoV-2. The inexpensive masks, which have two head straps and a horizontal seam, captured 98% of exhaled virus, according to the study

📌Surgical masks brought up the rear in performance out of the four types, but even they blocked 70% of the virus, the tests showed. (To reflect the general public's use of masks, study volunteers were not fit-tested for their masks or trained how to properly wear them.)

📌“The research shows that any mask is much better than no mask, and an N95 is significantly better than the other options. That’s the No. 1 message,” says the study’s senior author, Donald Milton @Don_Milton

Research: N95 Masks Nearly Perfect at Blocking COVID, UMD Study Shows (Maryland University, May 31, 2024)
Eric Feigl-Ding (X, Aug 13, 2024)


Here is another random dude on the internet crying about masks in 2024:
Masks? I've openly stated my son and I wear them. People wearing masks don't bother me at all, but an extremely small number of people have any interest in doing so.


There is a word for somebody who appears to know that face masks work, that most people don't wear them in the middle of a pandemic in 2024, and who nevertheless wants the ignorance of actual people to be left undisturbed by science-based knowledge about masks and who panics whenever somebody tries to correct their delusion.

If the "enormous majority of people don't care about covid, don't want to read about it," The Atheist should feel safe that nothing's going to change, so why does he still panic whenever "some random bloke on the internet" spreads a bit of science on a skeptics' Covid-19 Science and Medicine thread?
 
Reality Check

Yesterday:
Ironic.

While some people continue to screech their fear of covid, influenza is a much worse disease.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13733595/Queensland-flu-seven-years-vaccine.html

Tellingly:
As of Saturday, 346 people with influenza A are currently in hospital, including 28 children under the age of five and 181 patients aged 65 and over.
I'll give 10:1 odds there aren't 28 children under 5 because of covid in the entire rest of the world right now.


10:1 are very good odds!
I already mentioned that seven 0-2-year-olds were hospitalized in Denmark, a country of six million people, in the most recent week. (There will be new numbers later today.) But that is nothing compared to South Korea:
The number of COVID-19 child patients in South Korea jumped this month, as the nation saw a surge in cases amid a summer wave, hospital data showed Wednesday.
At 42 pediatric hospitals, there were 1,080 child patients with COVID-19 on Aug. 5-9, compared with 387 child patients on July 22-26, according to data compiled by the Korea Children's Hospital Association.
In particular, the number of COVID-19 child patients stood at 301 on Aug. 5-9 in Chungcheong provinces, compared with 54 on July 22-26.
Number of COVID-19 pediatric patients jumps as summer wave spreads (KoreaHerald, Aug 14, 2024)


I am not a gambling man myself, but for those of you who are: The next time The Atheist offers you a bet, you should consider taking it.
By the way, I don't know who is considered to be a child in the context of South Korean hospitalizations, but these are the numbers of very young C19 patients hospitalized in Denmark last week:
0-2: 7
6-11: 1
16-19: 1
The seven 0-2-year-olds were 5% of all people hospitalized for C19.
This is something that we aren't told about by the Danish media. We have to go this official site. The time it takes to download is excruciatingly long, and then most people probably still won't know how to continue from there.

It is fairly obvious that the health authorities don't want us to know. The media doesn't know because journalists rely on health authorities telling them what to report.
We also aren't told about the damage that COVID-19 does to babies - in particular to those who get it so bad that they are hospitalized.
I assume that it's much the same in New Zealand. Otherwise, I don't think The Atheist would have come up with something as stupid as the post quoted above. I think he actually believes what the Daily Mail wants him to believe.
But he is also more than willing to be believe it. Otherwise, he would make an effort to find out if it is actually true before posting it here. He doesn't.

I don't think that's the case for the majority of "the enormous majority of people," but it's hard to tell. The majority of people I talk to about this seem genuinely baffled when I tell them. Many of them doubt my facts and ask me for documentation, which I always give people - even random people on the internet, some of whom respond like The Atheist. They want to stay in denial, and they panic whenever something threatens to disturb their delusions.

Cognitive dissonance is as widespread as the virus. There's a pandemic of that mind virus, too.
 
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Podcast with Peter Hotez

In this episode of Dialogues, host Garry Aslanyan speaks with Peter Hotez, an internationally-recognized physician-scientist in neglected tropical diseases and vaccine development. In 2022, Hotez and his colleague Maria Elena Bottazzi were nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for “their work to develop and distribute a low-cost COVID-19 vaccine to people of the world without patent limitation.” He is also one of the leading defenders of vaccines in the United States and the author of several books, including "Preventing the Next Pandemic," "The Deadly Rise of Anti-Science" and “Vaccines did not cause Rachel’s autism.”
Global Health Matters - Dialogues: a conversation with Peter Hotez (Buzzsprout, Aug 13, 2024)


And yes, I found it on the social media that The Atheist refers to as 'Twatter':
For our first "Dialogues" episode of Season 4, @GarryAslanyan is joined by @PeterHotez, professor, science communicator and unceasing advocate for vaccines amid the global rise of the anti-science movement. Listen here: https://tinyurl.com/peter-hotez
TDR (X, Aug 13, 2024 - 33:13 min.)
 
I already mentioned that seven 0-2-year-olds were hospitalized in Denmark, a country of six million people, in the most recent week. (There will be new numbers later today.) But that is nothing compared to South Korea:

Shown your evidence that those kids under age 5 are in hospital because of covid, rather than in hospital and covid positive.

I'll give you 1000:1 it's the latter.

Kids get sick and even die from influenza, In the entire pandemic only a handful of children under 5 died from covid worldwide and it's virtually unknown in 2024.
 
Reality Check

Shown your evidence that those kids under age 5 are in hospital because of covid, rather than in hospital and covid positive.
I'll give you 1000:1 it's the latter.
Kids get sick and even die from influenza, In the entire pandemic only a handful of children under 5 died from covid worldwide and it's virtually unknown in 2024.


It is amazing how conspicuous The Atheist's desire for evidence becomes when somebody else has to deliver it. It doesn't even make him consider how out of control the pandemic response would have to be for seven hospitalized babies just happening to also be COVID-19 positive or maybe even infected at the hospital! But like all the other age groups on the Covid-19 - Denmark page, this is all the information we get: New hospitalizations per age group in the last seven days:
Nye indlæggelser pr. aldersgruppe de seneste syv dage
The numbers have just been updated (at 14:00 (2 p.m.) CEST): six 0-2-year olds, one 3-5-year-old. No 6-19-year-olds.

But let us move on The Atheist's claims about children (not) killed by the virus. I could ask him to provide the actual data instead of his absurd odds, but I know that he never delivers.

It is also obvious that The Atheist won't give anyone "1000:1 it's the latter" in an actual bet. The bragadacious posts will continue to flow from his keyboard, bereft of evidence, bereft of facts and bereft of truth like his stupid lie that "only a handful of children under 5 died from covid worldwide."
Not even minimizers who want to believe it actually do believe it, and debunking the lie is futile, but as always I'll do it anyway. It's what I do.

The world, 2019 to December 2023:
How many children have died from COVID-19?
Among the 4.4 million COVID-19 deaths1 reported in the MPIDR COVerAGE database, 0.4 per cent (over 17,400) occurred in children and adolescents under 20 years of age. Of the over 17,400 deaths reported in those under 20 years of age, 53 per cent occurred among adolescents ages 10–19, and 47 per cent among children ages 0–9.
Child mortality and COVID-19 (UNICEF, March 2023)


USA, August 2021 to July, 2022, i.e. one year, post-vax:
COVID-19 was the eighth leading cause of death among children in recent months, according to a study published Monday.
In a yearlong period from August 2021 to July 2022, 821 children ages 0 to 19 died from COVID-19 at a rate of 1 per 100,000. Children's deaths of any kind are rare, researchers noted.
COVID-19 ranked fifth in non-disease-related deaths and first in infectious or respiratory illness deaths, overtaking the flu and pneumonia.
COVID-19 is a leading cause of death among children, but is still rare (NPR, Jan 31, 2023)


In order to find just a country (with reliable statistics) with "only a handful of children under 5" having died from COVID-19 "in the entire pandemic," one would have to go to one the size of Denmark. An old trick of The Atheist's is to make claims about the current situation that are almost impossible to debunk until some time in 2025: "it's virtually unknown in 2024."
Not even with the weasel word virtually in place is this anything other than an obvious and disgusting lie.

It is a tedious job to be the fact checker of The Atheist's lies. I really wish threads in ISF - and in Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology thread in particular - came with a Three-Lies-You're-Out rule. The right to lie shouldn't be protected.


Provisional COVID-19 Death Counts by Age in Years, 2020-2023
Effective June 28, 2023, this dataset will no longer be updated. Similar data are accessible from CDC WONDER (https://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10-provisional.html).
Cumulative deaths involving COVID-19 reported to NCHS by sex and age in years, in the United States.
Provisional COVID-19 Death Counts by Age (CDC)

Is anybody up for this? I'm not!
But it's an excellent example of how difficult governments want to make it for ordinary people to find data. And I thought Denmark was bad in this respect!
WONDER Quick Start Guide

This page has pointers for a quick start in using WONDER's data and reporting features.
WONDER how...
Request data from WONDER databases?
Organize a table of my data results?
(What is a "By-Variable"?)
Make a map of my data results?
Make charts of my data results?
Download my data extract as a file for use in other software?
Save my request or results data for later use?
Find the technical notes and other information for the data in my data request?
What citation is suggested for my data?
Set how many quantiles are used my data analysis, or define my own break-points?
Increase the "time-out" limit for database access, when I request a complex or large query?
Select items from the list box?
Change a "CheckBox?" A "Radio Button?"
Save my tables, charts and maps to my own computer, or paste them into other reports?
Use a Finder Tool to select values?
WONDER Quick Start Guide (CDC WONDER)
 
I tend to agree with The Atheist on this one: Do go talk to some actual people and find out what they think about masks, but don't stop there! Tell them why they are wrong!
Here's some random dude on the internet spreading science about wearing masks in 2024. He may come in handy when talking to actual people who have been misinformed:



Here is another random dude on the internet crying about masks in 2024:



There is a word for somebody who appears to know that face masks work, that most people don't wear them in the middle of a pandemic in 2024, and who nevertheless wants the ignorance of actual people to be left undisturbed by science-based knowledge about masks and who panics whenever somebody tries to correct their delusion.

If the "enormous majority of people don't care about covid, don't want to read about it," The Atheist should feel safe that nothing's going to change, so why does he still panic whenever "some random bloke on the internet" spreads a bit of science on a skeptics' Covid-19 Science and Medicine thread?
Thanks a lot for posting this, please keep on. It’s more difficult, in my experience, to get good info now that everyone see Covid as something to live with. I got it once, did really well with Paxlovid, am 71 years old, and I don’t want to get it again, and this masking info helps.

Got any good sources of info on Covid risk on planes? I know about most of the relevant factors but haven’t stumbled on good empirical studies. A friend who is older than me keeps on getting on planes and getting Covid soon afterwards, several times now. An anecdote, sure, but it drives me to find out good data.
 
...//everything not evidence of <5 year old deaths a and direct harm from covid removed//...

You're hilarious.

You type screeds of nonsensical garbage, but when asked for evidence of your stupid claims (don't forget, it was you saying how many kids are in hospital due to the new plague variant) you post 5000 words of obfuscation, whining and nothing of relevance.

Do go on...
 
I'm looking for details on Pfizer's Vaccine Protocol (C4591001 Amendment 9, Oct. 29 2020) change.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577/suppl_file/nejmoa2034577_protocol.pdf

Background:
Pfizer's Protocol, until Amendment 9, specified that interim analysis (unblinding) would occur starting at 32 cases (positive PCR results). Amendment 9 removed the 32 and changed the other thresholds to specify "at least" rather than a specific number that triggered unblinding.

Earlier in Oct., Pfizer realized that they would soon meet the 32 threshold before they had time to modify the Protocol. This would then require a public announcement and SEC 8k filing. So, as they got close to the 32 positive PCR results, they collected samples but stopped testing the samples to prevent triggering the disclosure requirements. They then updated the protocol to eliminate the 32 threshold and modify the 62, 92 and 120 interim analysis triggers to "at least." Upon approval (Nov 3, 2020) after submitting Amendment 9 to the FDA on Oct. 29, they resumed testing the stored samples. On Nov. 9, 2020 they announced the results showing 94 cases and >90% efficacy.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-r...d-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

I'm trying to find details on vaccination date and when associated positive PCR samples were collected to see if there is any indication of efficacy waning after 3 months. A large percentage of the positive tests occurred during Oct. so there could be a signal. I expect minimal waning given the 95% total efficacy at the end of the study but I sure would like to get the database of vax times and positives for both the test and control groups to get my own take.

Anyone seen any detail on this?
 
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