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Cont: Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla II

Today I learned that there's some enthusiasm for arguing about whether the space shuttle is a rocket.

Which isn't even the point. The point is that the shuttle rocket motors were reusable, and probably one of the best things to come out of that program.

My understanding is that the SpaceX motors are somewhat easier and cheaper to refurbish between flights.
They also run off a fuel that is much easier to work with.
 
Today I learned anything powered by rocket motors is a rocket. The X-1, X-15, ME-163, streamliner cars, school buses, cars etc.. Hell, I even fly model airplanes with a guy who mounted a rocket motor to his airplane. I'll have to let him know he no longer flies an airplane, it's actually a rocket according to some random guy on ISF.
The worst strawman arguments ever.
 
Say, can anyone remember why it was important that the shuttle shouldn't count as a real rocket?

It's not important. I said something about Starship there wasn't negative, it's critics had to find something to argue about, no matter how silly.
 
It's not important. I said something about Starship there wasn't negative, it's critics had to find something to argue about, no matter how silly.
You were actually referring to the success of Falcon 9.
SpaceX 2024:
85% of all mass to orbit.
Booster 1067 completed its 24th launch and recovery.
134 orbital lunches – all other US companies combined managed 20 total.

SpaceX critics in 2025 – "Elon Musk promised Starship would be going to Mars by now. SpaceX is a failure."
 
What do you mean by domestic tariffs? The tariffs are on imports. A lot of the cars are built in the US (maybe some of the parts are made overseas, such as in China?).

But anyway, I assume there will be certain carve-outs for Musk somehow, because Trump will make it happen for him.
Sorry brainfart on my part there, I meant rebates/refunds. Don't know why I didn't sput such an egregious muck up.
 
Not to belabor the point, but it’s trading exactly where investors think it should be - that’s what makes a market. Paraphrasing Bill O’Reilly, “Stocks go up; stocks go down. Nobody can explain it.”

I may have said this already, but I divested myself of most of my Tesla stock in the low 200’s, quite uncertain of Tesla’s future in light of Elon’s escapades elsewhere. Decent profit at that price. Still holding 100 shares, hoping for the best.
Investors only value Tesla so highly because they think there are bigger idiots than themselves out there.
 
Sorry brainfart on my part there, I meant rebates/refunds. Don't know why I didn't sput such an egregious muck up.
Ah, the tax credits/ subsidies etc… I know that Trump has said he will end that, but I am would be amazed if he didn’t find some kind of workaround for Musk. In fact, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he just said, “I’ll keep the subsidies for Tesla because Elon is my friend. Been very good to me. I always do what’s best for people who are good to me….” At this point I think that even those in his party who used to have to blink and wonder how to spin this will no longer bother with that. Just go all in on it.
 
Did you not know that they revised those goals several times before any test launches? Did you look at the stated goals for any of the test launches, or did you just assume that the goal for each launch was the same as the 2020 goals?

There's a difference between an overall strategic goal and the goals of each individual mission.
The trouble is that, for the test flights they have done so far, they are setting very easy goals (and sometimes still not hitting them). For example, Musk claimed that the goal of the first flight was to clear the launch tower. Seriously? The fact that they are setting such unambitious goals tells us that they are having a lot of trouble and they are missing the programme goals by miles.
 
I mean, that's a fair enough statement. Musk has always set unrealistically ambitious goals, and Starship is no exception.

You mean he lied to NASA.

It just seems to me that some people are holding SpaceX to a standard that it's not even holding itself to.
That's the problem isn't it. SpaceX is not holding itself to high enough standards. What they have done so far with Starship has been shoddy.
 
Starship test flight 7 launches in a few days (barring unforseen cancellations of course). It's goal is to deploy ten simulated Starlink satellites, relight the Raptor engines, and splash down in the Indian Ocean. Its goal is not to reach orbital velocity, it is not to perform an orbital fuel transfer, and it is not to make an uncrewed landing on the moon. And anybody who says that Starship has failed because it has not done those things is just lying.
So this is the seventh launch and they are still not going to orbit.

It's pathetic really.
 
Ah, the tax credits/ subsidies etc… I know that Trump has said he will end that, but I am would be amazed if he didn’t find some kind of workaround for Musk. In fact, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he just said, “I’ll keep the subsidies for Tesla because Elon is my friend. Been very good to me. I always do what’s best for people who are good to me….” At this point I think that even those in his party who used to have to blink and wonder how to spin this will no longer bother with that. Just go all in on it.
Problem with that line is that there's plenty of companies with a lot more resources than Galaxy Brain that will be put out. And the one area where the Volksgerichtshof goes against Trampy consistently is cases where he's hurting the 1%.
 
You mean he lied to NASA.


That's the problem isn't it. SpaceX is not holding itself to high enough standards. What they have done so far with Starship has been shoddy.
The thing about the "ambitious goals" of this project is that everything apart from the absurdly long landing module has a solution for which the answer is publicly available. It's not even stuff to be testing if the rocket can do, because if it's properly designed the only tests should be safety ones.
 
Not really.


The goal of none of those six test flights was to get people to the moon. The goal of none of those six test flights was to reach orbit. Is SpaceX behind schedule? Yes, clearly. But you can't criticise them for not reaching goals that they have not set.

But they have set goals. They were supposed to put a rocket on the Moon in 2024. They are still a few years away from achieving that.

There were ten Apollo missions before anybody got to the moon.
You're counting the missions not using Saturn V. If you are doing that, we can include the Starship upper stage tests, which means there have been ten missions so far and they haven't achieved orbit. Even if we exclude those, do you really think Starship is going to be capable of putting a man on the Moon in five more launches?
 
But they have set goals. They were supposed to put a rocket on the Moon in 2024. They are still a few years away from achieving that.


You're counting the missions not using Saturn V. If you are doing that, we can include the Starship upper stage tests, which means there have been ten missions so far and they haven't achieved orbit. Even if we exclude those, do you really think Starship is going to be capable of putting a man on the Moon in five more launches?
Moon - they were meant to be on Mars by 2024... remember Red Dragon?
 
It's not important. I said something about Starship there wasn't negative, it's critics had to find something to argue about, no matter how silly.
You said something that was complete bollocks. Never mind whether Space Shuttle was a rocket or not, it's not even the first time SpaceX has reused a rocket engine.
 
The thing about the "ambitious goals" of this project is that everything apart from the absurdly long landing module has a solution for which the answer is publicly available. It's not even stuff to be testing if the rocket can do, because if it's properly designed the only tests should be safety ones.
Nobody has ever done propellant transfer in orbit either.
 
Moon - they were meant to be on Mars by 2024... remember Red Dragon?
Elon Musk said they would be going to Mars by 2024 but that was just fluff to get the fanboys creaming themselves. SpaceX has an actual contract with NASA, so the goal of getting a spacecraft on the Moon is a real one.
 
But they have set goals. They were supposed to put a rocket on the Moon in 2024. They are still a few years away from achieving that.


You're counting the missions not using Saturn V. If you are doing that, we can include the Starship upper stage tests, which means there have been ten missions so far and they haven't achieved orbit. Even if we exclude those, do you really think Starship is going to be capable of putting a man on the Moon in five more launches?
Plus, Elon is benefitting from Apollo itself and over 60 years of experience, development and technology in rocketry and the aerospace industry.
 
Once Musk is running DOGE, he will order the Moon to be pulled closer to the Earth, so his rockets can reach it.
 
"Set unrealistically ambitious goals".

In case you hadn't noticed, that's kind of Musk's whole deal.

yeah, also his whole deal is being a huge liar.

and at some point these ambitious business goals and deadlines he sets and then fails to meet knowing his company isn’t even close to making them are exactly that instead.
 
The Russians pretty routinely transfer propellant from Progress resupply capsules to their ISS modules.
Valid correction, but we're not talking about recharging maneuvering jets. But hopefully such offers some insight into larger projects...

... Projects such as fueling a trans-earth launch vehicle or booster stage with a multi-ton Mars mission payload.
 
Did I say it was fine? I don't think I said it was fine.
It is surprising on a website devoted to skepticism, you have so many people who think that stating out a reality is the same as advocating that the
yeah, also his whole deal is being a huge liar.

and at some point these ambitious business goals and deadlines he sets and then fails to meet knowing his company isn’t even close to making them are exactly that instead.
A lot of business and government agencies set goals they know they know will never be met for a variety of reasons,,you need to give people something to really aim for...but I get the sick feeeling that Musk actually buys into the idiotic goals he sets. That is more dangerous then jusy being a liar.
 
Ah, the tax credits/ subsidies etc… I know that Trump has said he will end that, but I am would be amazed if he didn’t find some kind of workaround for Musk. In fact, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he just said, “I’ll keep the subsidies for Tesla because Elon is my friend. Been very good to me. I always do what’s best for people who are good to me….” At this point I think that even those in his party who used to have to blink and wonder how to spin this will no longer bother with that. Just go all in on it.
That depends on who long the Trump Musk Bromance will continue....Isuspect it willnot be for long. There is only room for one A Alpha Male in charge, and Trump is not going to give way to Musk.
ALready many of Trump's advisors have developed a real hatred for Musk.-
 
A lot of business and government agencies set goals they know they know will never be met for a variety of reasons,,you need to give people something to really aim for...but I get the sick feeeling that Musk actually buys into the idiotic goals he sets. That is more dangerous then jusy being a liar.

there’s an old saying in texas. fool me once, shame on you. can’t fool me again.

anyway, he’s just a huge liar and will lie for money like he has a hundred times. no need to overthink it
 
That depends on who long the Trump Musk Bromance will continue....Isuspect it willnot be for long. There is only room for one A Alpha Male in charge, and Trump is not going to give way to Musk.
ALready many of Trump's advisors have developed a real hatred for Musk.-
Maybe.
But that's just hoping that things will fix themselves rather than championing some course of action that prevents utter shameless cronyism. It can go on for a while before things fix themselves like in Russia where you just end up with whichever leader throws enough competitors out of enough windows.
 
there’s an old saying in texas. fool me once, shame on you. can’t fool me again..

That's... not the saying...

that's the special Texan nonsensical version, as opposed to the Italian original as cited by Anthony Weldon in 1651:
 
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Would you rather they sent people into orbit without testing their systems first?

Let's just slap a rocket together and strap someone to the top. Hey, it works in Kerbal, what could go wrong?
 
It is surprising on a website devoted to s
The last three launches reached a high enough speed and altitude to reach orbit.
I think they are avoiding full reentry. NASA learned the hard way just how difficult it is to make it repeatable. The tiles and body still aren't up to the job.
 
I think they are avoiding full reentry. NASA learned the hard way just how difficult it is to make it repeatable. The tiles and body still aren't up to the job.
Flight 6 successfully executed a perfectly controlled landing in the ocean. I believe this is the goal for 7 as well.
 
Flight 6 successfully executed a perfectly controlled landing in the ocean. I believe this is the goal for 7 as well.
It was falling apart. It only just survived the reentry. The Dragon capsule is using well understood single use technology. The multiple use re-entry was something that NASA was always struggling with.
 
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