Kepler space telescope finds Earth-size, potentially habitable planets are common

[Puppycow]

Kepler space telescope finds Earth-size, potentially habitable planets are common

Roughly one in every five sunlike stars is orbited by a potentially habitable, Earth-size planet, meaning that the universe has abundant real estate that could be congenial to life, according to a new analysis of observations by NASA’s Kepler space telescope.

Our Milky Way galaxy alone could harbor tens of billions of rocky worlds where water might be liquid at the surface, according to the report, which was published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and discussed at a news conference in California.

If the estimate is correct, the nearest ocean planet might be just 12 light-years away, which, though extremely distant for all practical purposes (such as sending a robotic space probe), is just around the corner in our galactic neighborhood.

12 light years. I don't think it is possible to send a robotic probe that far yet and expect it to work when it gets there and be able to send back useful information. But maybe someday we will have that capability.

 

[geni]

12 light years. I don't think it is possible to send a robotic probe that far yet and expect it to work when it gets there and be able to send back useful information. But maybe someday we will have that capability.

With enough effort it could probably be done. The problem is more the lack people to send information back to.

 

[Puppycow]

With enough effort it could probably be done. The problem is more the lack people to send information back to.

How long would it take?

 

[geni]

How long would it take?

that really depends on what you allow as possible.

Our fastest probe is voyger 2 which would take a bit over 200,000 years

For stuff we haven't built yet but probably could:

In principle a solar sail might manage in in 8000 years or so

With ion drives its really a matter of how much mass you are prepared to put into orbit but I expect it would be possible to get it down to a couple of thousand years if you wanted.

For more exotic options or the extreme end of the ion drive scale hitting interstellar dust starts to become a problem. Estimates vary but anything better than 0.1C is unlikely.

 

[332nd]

that really depends on what you allow as possible.

Our fastest probe is voyger 2 which would take a bit over 200,000 years

For stuff we haven't built yet but probably could:

In principle a solar sail might manage in in 8000 years or so

With ion drives its really a matter of how much mass you are prepared to put into orbit but I expect it would be possible to get it down to a couple of thousand years if you wanted.

For more exotic options or the extreme end of the ion drive scale hitting interstellar dust starts to become a problem. Estimates vary but anything better than 0.1C is unlikely.

Is that last part due to inability to reach the speed or inability to have a shield/armor to withstand the dust?

 

[Puppycow]

that really depends on what you allow as possible.

Our fastest probe is voyger 2 which would take a bit over 200,000 years

For stuff we haven't built yet but probably could:

In principle a solar sail might manage in in 8000 years or so

With ion drives its really a matter of how much mass you are prepared to put into orbit but I expect it would be possible to get it down to a couple of thousand years if you wanted.

For more exotic options or the extreme end of the ion drive scale hitting interstellar dust starts to become a problem. Estimates vary but anything better than 0.1C is unlikely.

So at a minimum several thousands of years. You don't think that humans will be around in 10,000 years or 100,000 years?

 

[rjh01]

Another thread on the same topic here 8.8 Billion Earth-Like Planets In Milky Way

 

[OCaptain]

that really depends on what you allow as possible.

Our fastest probe is voyger 2 which would take a bit over 200,000 years

For stuff we haven't built yet but probably could:

In principle a solar sail might manage in in 8000 years or so

With ion drives its really a matter of how much mass you are prepared to put into orbit but I expect it would be possible to get it down to a couple of thousand years if you wanted.

For more exotic options or the extreme end of the ion drive scale hitting interstellar dust starts to become a problem. Estimates vary but anything better than 0.1C is unlikely.

For the amusement of the court, I present to you, Icarus Interstellar.

Please to enjoy.

http://www.icarusinterstellar.org

 

[Soapy Sam]

How long it takes also depends on whether you want to slow down at the far end or do a fast fly-by.

 

[Checkmite]

Wait a second - this doesn't seem right to me. Granted I'm not as close a follower as some others when it comes to astronomy or exoplanets in particular; but I do follow these topics, and I am as yet unaware of even a single Earth-sized planet having been observed in the habitable zone of another star, let alone one in every five sunlike stars. I remember reading last year or the year prior about a single, much larger-than-Earth planet being discovered in a habitable zone of a star, and that's it. Could somebody link to some more direct coverage of these alleged observations on which the Academy paper was based? Or is the article (and thread) title misleading, and the paper was a prediction rather than a report of an actual "discovery"?

 

[ehcks]

So at a minimum several thousands of years. You don't think that humans will be around in 10,000 years or 100,000 years?

I think a better point would be that even if we sent the fastest thing we could send now, before it arrives, we'd come up with something that's faster enough to pass the first probe on its journey.

And probably take a picture of it on the way by.

 

[Puppycow]

Wait a second - this doesn't seem right to me. Granted I'm not as close a follower as some others when it comes to astronomy or exoplanets in particular; but I do follow these topics, and I am as yet unaware of even a single Earth-sized planet having been observed in the habitable zone of another star, let alone one in every five sunlike stars. I remember reading last year or the year prior about a single, much larger-than-Earth planet being discovered in a habitable zone of a star, and that's it. Could somebody link to some more direct coverage of these alleged observations on which the Academy paper was based? Or is the article (and thread) title misleading, and the paper was a prediction rather than a report of an actual "discovery"?

No, if you had bothered to actually read the article you would have found the answer therein. If you want a link to "more direct coverage" I suggest that you are just as capable of using the Google as anyone else.

The Kepler team has found amid the space telescope’s data 10 “candidate” planets that, while not confirmed, appear to be roughly one to two times the mass of Earth and orbiting at “Goldi*locks” distances, neither too close nor too far from the stars.

The scientists extrapolated in two ways. They know that most planets are unlikely to be in orbits that, just by chance, cause them to pass in front of the face of the star as seen from Kepler. That’s a 1-in-100 long shot. For every planet seen, multiply by 100.

The scientists also knew that some planets would remain difficult to detect because of natural fluctuations in starlight — the “noise” in the signal. They found a way to test the accuracy of the algorithms for detecting planets by inserting 40,000 “synthetic” planets into the computer programs and seeing how many would be accurately retrieved by those programs.

 

[Checkmite]

So I'm right - it is in fact a prediction, not a discovery as such.

It explains why I haven't heard about it; my exoplanet data source only lists confirmed planets, not candidates.

 

[Craig B]

[12 light years. I don't think it is possible to send a robotic probe that far yet and expect it to work when it gets there and be able to send back useful information. But maybe someday we will have that capability.

There was a pseudo-documentary, Alien Planet about such a probe on Discovery Channel in 2005. It found all manner of weird creatures like the sorts of things depicted in obscure corners of mediaeval world maps, except that one of the flying organisms resembled a 1950s four engined jet bomber.

Leo gets destroyed by a mysterious and evasive creature, and Ike, ordered by the Von Braun to search for Leo's attacker, hopes to find a new sentient species. Ike's route takes him across perilous terrain, and across the Amoebic Sea in his quest for Leo. As he embarks on his journey, one of the Grovebacks seen earlier falls victim to a swarm of Beach Quills. Ike then finds a pack of Prongheads hunting a Gyrosprinter, and crosses the Amoebic Sea (which attempted to attack Ike), encountering a herd of giant Sea Striders.

Quite so.