[Merged] 2024 Election Thread

[JoeMorgue]

Sadly the whole Trump persona means things that can be sold to his cult members as "The Big Evil Deep State Trying to Silence Him As a Political Hit" are going to sell well.

He's made so literally any sane, reasonable consequences he faces for his actions is going to work in his own stupid, evil narrative.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Well, looking at the polling numbers from:
fivethirtyeight (which provides a combined/aggregate value):

Trump's favorability rating in February 2021 was 39% (before any indictments were handed down). His current favorability rating is 41%. Trump hasn't yet faced any criminal trials, but in that time frame he:
- Lost a court case against E Jean Carroll (he didn't testify in court but his deposition was reported in the news)
- Had 4 criminal indictments issued. (He hasn't been on trial for any of them but he's still been arraigned.)
- Had some pretty troubling evidence presented against him in the investigation over the Jan 6 terrorist attacks
- Had a summary judgement issued against him in the NY Fraud case

All of these would have had time to impact his popularity. But instead of decreasing, his favorability is up by approximately 2%..

As far as the NY case, a lot of people don't even realize he's already lost the case in a summary judgement. Let's see what happens when the decision comes down forcing him to sell assets and banning him from doing business in NY. Today is the last day for prosecution witnesses. It will be interesting to see if the defense calls any witnesses.

Indictments are meaningless at moving the needle. If he's convicted it will matter but maybe not among the cultist base.

His loose lips are going to be an issue more and more as the media reports how it might have contributed to Hamas planning that was missed by Israel.

And not all polls show him rising in popularity.

 

[Dr.Sid]

How does critical thinking connect that in a meaningful way to an election that’s a year from now?

Not much. But Trump is still in the race, with all what already happened. As for republican primaries, he's undisputed winner. He's doesn't seem to gaining new fans .. but he manages to keep the old ones.
Biden as acting president obviously lost. All false hopes you could have for him are cleared, he has no major success, times are hard, inflation high. What's the plan ? Do nothing ? Hoping people are not so stupid ? Well .. numbers say they are.
Czech Republic already had idiot drunken pro-russian president voted in twice. Everybody was sure it can't happen again. Not after he showed us how bad he really is. Yet again, the stupidity of the masses was underestimated. Or rather, solution was not found. Luckily nobody really cares who is our president.
Trump on the other hand might be the end of the global civilization.

 

[johnny karate]

Well, looking at the polling numbers from:
fivethirtyeight (which provides a combined/aggregate value):

Trump's favorability rating in February 2021 was 39% (before any indictments were handed down). His current favorability rating is 41%. Trump hasn't yet faced any criminal trials, but in that time frame he:
- Lost a court case against E Jean Carroll (he didn't testify in court but his deposition was reported in the news)
- Had 4 criminal indictments issued. (He hasn't been on trial for any of them but he's still been arraigned.)
- Had some pretty troubling evidence presented against him in the investigation over the Jan 6 terrorist attacks
- Had a summary judgement issued against him in the NY Fraud case

All of these would have had time to impact his popularity. But instead of decreasing, his favorability is up by approximately 2%..

Meanwhile, Trump's trademark brand of politics has been consistently losing at the ballot box for five years, up to and including last night.

 

[johnny karate]

Not much. But Trump is still in the race, with all what already happened. As for republican primaries, he's undisputed winner. He's doesn't seem to gaining new fans .. but he manages to keep the old ones.
Biden as acting president obviously lost. All false hopes you could have for him are cleared, he has no major success, times are hard, inflation high. What's the plan ? Do nothing ? Hoping people are not so stupid ? Well .. numbers say they are.
Czech Republic already had idiot drunken pro-russian president voted in twice. Everybody was sure it can't happen again. Not after he showed us how bad he really is. Yet again, the stupidity of the masses was underestimated. Or rather, solution was not found. Luckily nobody really cares who is our president.
Trump on the other hand might be the end of the global civilization.

It's posts like this that make me think that none of this supposed hand-wringing over Biden is in good faith. Biden has had significant legislative achievements, inflation is worldwide and America is handling it better than most countries, and the primary metrics for economic health like GDP growth and the unemployment rate are excellent.

If you want to bash Biden and claim he's a poor candidate, go to town. But when you deny basic reality, it doesn't seem like you know what you're talking about when you do it.

 

[JoeMorgue]

The narrative has already been established.

This is all just a politically motivated hit and Donald Trump isn't really as bad as any other politician, in fact he's better because he at least admits it and all those other politicians are just pretending to have morals and standards and deep down inside they are all just as bad.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

It's more basic than that.

Tell an American he can't have something, and he will crawl over broken glass to get it.

 

[ZiprHead]

nm

 

[Dr.Sid]

It's posts like this that make me think that none of this supposed hand-wringing over Biden is in good faith. Biden has had significant legislative achievements, inflation is worldwide and America is handling it better than most countries, and the primary metrics for economic health like GDP growth and the unemployment rate are excellent.

If you want to bash Biden and claim he's a poor candidate, go to town. But when you deny basic reality, it doesn't seem like you know what you're talking about when you do it.

Don't preach to me. I won't even vote. And while I don't think Biden is super good, as was already mentioned, he's more about keeping the status quo .. but he's certainly million times better than Trump.
Inflation is worldwide, yes .. and governments worldwide fall after failing to explain to people it's not their fault. GDP growth and unemployment rates will be useless when Trump will say "Biden is boring".
It's not about educated elites on the left or the cesspool on the right. It's about those few % in the middle. And it's not as much about who are they going to vote for, but if they are going to show up.
It was too close the last time, and the trend is not in the right direction. I see the same complacency as before Hillary's election, and as with our Zeman's second term. "It cannot possibly happen" we all said. And then it did happen.

 

[ZiprHead]

Translation: "We asked somewhere between 100 and 1,000 Americans who were either old enough to still have a landline and/or stupid enough to answer a call from anonymous probably spam number and who had nothing better to do than sit through a survey, here's what they said."

Looking at the stats in this poll, the largest number of responses to the questions were 3,662. The total number of registered voters in those states is 33,572,738. So the polls were .01% of the total.

Considering polling this past decade has been far less than stellar in accuracy, giving any weight to OP poll this far out from election day appears to me to be a fool's errand.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Looking at the stats in this poll, the largest number of responses to the questions were 3,662. The total number of registered voters in those states is 33,572,738. So the polls were .01% of the total.

Considering polling this past decade has been far less than stellar in accuracy, giving any weight to OP poll this far out from election day appears to me to be a fool's errand.

Sure, but look at the trends.
Also https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com has tons of polls, several every day. I'm not saying Trump WILL win. I'm saying he CAN.

 

[Pixel42]

Looking at the stats in this poll, the largest number of responses to the questions were 3,662. The total number of registered voters in those states is 33,572,738. So the polls were .01% of the total.

The size of the population is irrelevant; 3662 is a more than adequate sample size to produce reasonably accurate results, provided it's a representative sample.

https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

Reputable pollsters go to great lengths to ensure their samples are representative.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Sure, but look at the trends.
Also https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com has tons of polls, several every day. I'm not saying Trump WILL win. I'm saying he CAN.

Sure but look at the results of yesterday's election. Abortion rights and Democrats won all across the country and turnout was record breaking in a number of states.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Sure but look at the results of yesterday's election. Abortion rights and Democrats won all across the country and turnout was record breaking in a number of states.

That's way less relevant than polls. If anything, it shows abortion is not as well aligned with parties, as some republicans might wish .. and it says exactly nothing about Biden vs. Trump, much less on national level.

And look, first article I fount even mentions it: https://apnews.com/article/election-2023-highlights-868a21bf3537a0533ae3fd8007d07eef

The victories won’t be enough to make Democrats feel secure heading into next year’s presidential election.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

That's way less relevant than polls. ...

 

[Stacyhs]

Not much. But Trump is still in the race, with all what already happened. As for republican primaries, he's undisputed winner. He's doesn't seem to gaining new fans .. but he manages to keep the old ones.
Biden as acting president obviously lost. All false hopes you could have for him are cleared, he has no major success, times are hard, inflation high. What's the plan ? Do nothing ? Hoping people are not so stupid ? Well .. numbers say they are.
Czech Republic already had idiot drunken pro-russian president voted in twice. Everybody was sure it can't happen again. Not after he showed us how bad he really is. Yet again, the stupidity of the masses was underestimated. Or rather, solution was not found. Luckily nobody really cares who is our president.
Trump on the other hand might be the end of the global civilization.

The US and the Czech Republic have that in common.

 

[Stacyhs]

Don't preach to me. I won't even vote. And while I don't think Biden is super good, as was already mentioned, he's more about keeping the status quo .. but he's certainly million times better than Trump.
Inflation is worldwide, yes .. and governments worldwide fall after failing to explain to people it's not their fault. GDP growth and unemployment rates will be useless when Trump will say "Biden is boring".
It's not about educated elites on the left or the cesspool on the right. It's about those few % in the middle. And it's not as much about who are they going to vote for, but if they are going to show up.It was too close the last time, and the trend is not in the right direction. I see the same complacency as before Hillary's election, and as with our Zeman's second term. "It cannot possibly happen" we all said. And then it did happen.

I agree with the highlighted.

 

[Stacyhs]

Looking at the stats in this poll, the largest number of responses to the questions were 3,662. The total number of registered voters in those states is 33,572,738. So the polls were .01% of the total.

Considering polling this past decade has been far less than stellar in accuracy, giving any weight to OP poll this far out from election day appears to me to be a fool's errand.

Agreed. Honestly, when was the last time anyone in this group completed a phone survey?

 

[johnny karate]

Don't preach to me. I won't even vote. And while I don't think Biden is super good, as was already mentioned, he's more about keeping the status quo .. but he's certainly million times better than Trump.
Inflation is worldwide, yes .. and governments worldwide fall after failing to explain to people it's not their fault. GDP growth and unemployment rates will be useless when Trump will say "Biden is boring".
It's not about educated elites on the left or the cesspool on the right. It's about those few % in the middle. And it's not as much about who are they going to vote for, but if they are going to show up.
It was too close the last time, and the trend is not in the right direction. I see the same complacency as before Hillary's election, and as with our Zeman's second term. "It cannot possibly happen" we all said. And then it did happen.

I like how we went from "Times are hard" to "Biden is boring" once actual metrics that measure how hard times are were brought into the discussion.

(And if "Biden is boring" is enough for Trump to get elected, then this country deserves what it gets.)

I'm not sure where you're seeing complacency or what trend you're looking at, but Democrats aren't acting like a party that is taking anything for granted. And as a result, they can't stop winning elections.

 

[lobosrul5]

Agreed. Honestly, when was the last time anyone in this group completed a phone survey?

If you look into the details of the poll they did say it was phone and online, plus they claim they called people representing the demographics of the usa by age, race, geography etc. Sure, if you called 1000 landlines at random chances are you'd get mostly older people and they'd over represent Trump supporters. But they claim they have ways of getting around that.

The entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, population density, civic engagement, and Pew Research Center's NPORS figures for religious affiliation
and frequency of internet use. The sample was also weighted for self-reported voter registration, 2020 recalled vote, party identification in detail (leaners broken out) and collapsed crossed by self-reported political ideology, self-reported voter registration, race by education, sex, age, region. The benchmarks for voter registration, 2020
recalled vote and the party identification crosses were taken from CNN's national poll conducted by SSRS via web and phone from July 1-31, 2023, which implemented a full probability design via Address-Based Sampling (ABS).

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24131320/cnn-poll-on-2024.pdf

pg28

ETA: oh to answer your question. 2018 for me, and if I'd known how long it was gonna be, I'd not have answered. But I thought a political poll was like 8 quick questions.

 

[johnny karate]

That's way less relevant than polls. If anything, it shows abortion is not as well aligned with parties, as some republicans might wish .. and it says exactly nothing about Biden vs. Trump, much less on national level.

And look, first article I fount even mentions it: https://apnews.com/article/election-2023-highlights-868a21bf3537a0533ae3fd8007d07eef

Repealing Roe v Wade was a calamitous overreach for Republicans and Trump was the guy who made it happen. The idea that Trump is not tied to that is laughably absurd.

 

[Pixel42]

Agreed. Honestly, when was the last time anyone in this group completed a phone survey?

When was the last time a reputable polling company published a poll based solely on phone surveys?

 

[johnny karate]

If you look into the details of the poll they did say it was phone and online, plus they claim they called people representing the demographics of the usa by age, race, geography etc. Sure, if you called 1000 landlines at random chances are you'd get mostly older people and they'd over represent Trump supporters. But they claim they have ways of getting around that.

The entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, population density, civic engagement, and Pew Research Center's NPORS figures for religious affiliation
and frequency of internet use. The sample was also weighted for self-reported voter registration, 2020 recalled vote, party identification in detail (leaners broken out) and collapsed crossed by self-reported political ideology, self-reported voter registration, race by education, sex, age, region. The benchmarks for voter registration, 2020
recalled vote and the party identification crosses were taken from CNN's national poll conducted by SSRS via web and phone from July 1-31, 2023, which implemented a full probability design via Address-Based Sampling (ABS).

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24131320/cnn-poll-on-2024.pdf

pg28

ETA: oh to answer your question. 2018 for me.

Seems like it's legit. Or maybe it's not. I honestly don't know. I guess we just have to take their word for it.

What I do know is that I don't need a byzantine explanation to understand election results, nor do I have to take as an article of faith what they tell me.

 

[lobosrul5]

Seems like it's legit. Or maybe it's not. I honestly don't know. I guess we just have to take their word for it.

What I do know is that I don't need a byzantine explanation to understand election results, nor do I have to take as an article of faith what they tell me.

Hmm, IMO we do. Unless I'm actually allowed to see the ballots myself, I am taking it on faith that the counting is done accurately and fairly. I do of course know that there are people out there that want to subvert the process... like the guy who used to be POTUS.

ETA: and I'd argue that our process for choosing the POTUS is pretty damned byzantine.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I answer political polls on my landline intermittently. But the minute it sounds like a push poll I tell the poll taker that and hang up.

 

[Stacyhs]

The size of the population is irrelevant; 3662 is a more than adequate sample size to produce reasonably accurate results, provided it's a representative sample.

https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

Reputable pollsters go to great lengths to ensure their samples are representative.

Pollsters cannot control several factors including who chooses to take a survey or not.

From Pew Research:

Consistent with past research, polling errors are larger for some topics – like political engagement – that may be related to a person’s willingness to take surveys.

While accuracy is solid on most outcomes [non-political surveys], this research also consistently finds that polls overrepresent people who are active in their communities or are active politically. For example, in the current analysis, about three-quarters of adults polled (77%) said they voted in the 2020 general election, while the actual rate was just two-thirds (66%).

Many public opinion polls are still conducted by telephone using randomly-drawn samples or, even more common, are conducted online using opt-in samples.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Repealing Roe v Wade was a calamitous overreach for Republicans and Trump was the guy who made it happen. The idea that Trump is not tied to that is laughably absurd.

Trump is tied to it .. but it's not 100% overlap. It's not that if you voted for abortion rights, you will vote for Biden, and vice versa.
I'm claiming the different in overlap is bigger than theoretical error of the poll.

 

[Dr.Sid]

I like how we went from "Times are hard" to "Biden is boring" once actual metrics that measure how hard times are were brought into the discussion.

(And if "Biden is boring" is enough for Trump to get elected, then this country deserves what it gets.)

I'm not sure where you're seeing complacency or what trend you're looking at, but Democrats aren't acting like a party that is taking anything for granted. And as a result, they can't stop winning elections.

"Biden is boring" is typical Trump style of argumentation. He won't argue with numbers and statistics. It got him elected once, and his approval improved since his loss, while Biden's dropped. He won't change his style, I doubt he's even capable of it. But it does work on many people. Roughly 50%. Doesn't it make you nervous ?

To everybody here: what makes you think Trump will not win ?

 

[Segnosaur]

As far as the NY case, a lot of people don't even realize he's already lost the case in a summary judgement.

A lot might not know. But some do know he lost. I suspect its a case where most MAGAchud just don't care rather than don't know.

Indictments are meaningless at moving the needle.

But in a sane world they SHOULD be. And the indictments are based in part on evidence made public long ago.

His loose lips are going to be an issue more and more as the media reports how it might have contributed to Hamas planning that was missed by Israel.

Trump gave away national secrets to the Russians and the Iranians. He gave information regarding nuclear submarine deployments to an Australian business man. Republican supporters do not care about issues of national security if it doesn't involve "Buttery males".

And not all polls show him rising in popularity.

True, not all of them do. But fivethirtyeight does an aggregate where they combine multiple polls (weighted by their reliability and age).

 

[Segnosaur]

Pollsters cannot control several factors including who chooses to take a survey or not.

No they cannot control who decides to take a survey.

But pollsters are smart people. They know how to adjust the statistics to compensate. (For example, if they find that "only 10% of our respondents are people under 30, but 20% of the population is that age", they will give more weight to those 10% that did respond.)

The average polling results in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections were both within 5% of the final results, so they must be doing SOMETHING right.

Now, it is still early in the election cycle, more than enough time for things to change. But, that doesn't mean we still shouldn't be concerned. Lots of people thought "no way he could win in 2016" but he did. Lots of people thought that after the 2021 terrorist attacks he would be done, but he's currently the republican frontrunner.

 

[Stacyhs]

"Biden is boring" is typical Trump style of argumentation. He won't argue with numbers and statistics. It got him elected once, and his approval improved since his loss, while Biden's dropped. He won't change his style, I doubt he's even capable of it. But it does work on many people. Roughly 50%. Doesn't it make you nervous ?

To everybody here: what makes you think Trump will not win ?

It's not that Trump won't change his style, it's that he can't change it. What you see is what he is. You may as well ask a rattlesnake not to strike when threatened. He lacks any kind of impulse control which he has demonstrated in court.

This 2016 article in The Atlantic by a psychologist discusses Trump's personality:

THE MIND OF DONALD TRUMP
Narcissism, disagreeableness, grandiosity—a psychologist investigates how Trump’s extraordinary personality might shape his possible presidency.

It is possible that Trump could win. I stopped underestimating the stupidity of the American electorate in 2016.

 

[Stacyhs]

No they cannot control who decides to take a survey.

But pollsters are smart people. They know how to adjust the statistics to compensate. (For example, if they find that "only 10% of our respondents are people under 30, but 20% of the population is that age", they will give more weight to those 10% that did respond.)

The average polling results in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections were both within 5% of the final results, so they must be doing SOMETHING right.
Now, it is still early in the election cycle, more than enough time for things to change. But, that doesn't mean we still shouldn't be concerned. Lots of people thought "no way he could win in 2016" but he did. Lots of people thought that after the 2021 terrorist attacks he would be done, but he's currently the republican frontrunner.

Citation for highlighted, please.

From The Washington Times:

Election polls from 2016 were a case study in failure

The 2016 polls in swing states were way off. The site Five Thirty Eight projected that Hillary Clinton had a 71.4% chance of an Electoral College victory. The site projected big leads in Florida (2%), Wisconsin (5%), Michigan (4%) and Pennsylvania (4%). The New York Times projected an 85% chance of a Clinton presidency. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball projected Clinton would win 322 electoral votes. No pollster projected a Trump victory, because of faulty poll data in the critical states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Every four years, the media obsesses over every poll the moment they are released. In too many cases we find out on election day that the polls we believed for months were wildly wrong. Americans seem to have a collective case of amnesia, because we all continue to obsess over polls every four years and tend to believe them.

 

[ZiprHead]

Agreed. Honestly, when was the last time anyone in this group completed a phone survey?

I got called a couple years ago. About 7 questions in it became obvious it was a push poll. I told the person calling to **** off and hung up.

 

[Venom]

"Donald Trump is FKIN REAL man!" I hear at my workplace from middle-aged white guys, some of whom are actually against right-wingers, to hear them explain themselves.

I don't know how that works, maybe they sincerely like Trump's openness? How. How TF is this grifter REAL? Cause he speaks off the cuff all the damn time? because he doesn't use big words? Because he just spews anything that pops into his head at the moment?

 

[Stacyhs]

"Donald Trump is FKIN REAL man!" I hear at my workplace from middle-aged white guys, some of whom are actually against right-wingers, to hear them explain themselves.

I don't know how that works, maybe they sincerely like Trump's openness? How. How TF is this grifter REAL? Cause he speaks off the cuff all the damn time? because he doesn't use big words? Because he just spews anything that pops into his head at the moment?

Doesn't say much for what the guys at your workplace think a 'real man' is.

This 'real woman' finds nothing 'real man' about Trump at all. Loathsome pig.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

A lot might not know. But some do know he lost. I suspect its a case where most MAGAchud just don't care rather than don't know.

You are forgetting about the large number of low information voters. They may not be paying attention to anything that isn't blasted all over the news for days at a time. Right now they see Trump's face and people calling Biden too old.

Wait till the headlines are Trump Org kicked out of NY, Trump not really a billionaire, and soon to follow, Trump going to jail. Those will be big headlines even the low information voters can't miss.

Trump gave away national secrets to the Russians and the Iranians. He gave information regarding nuclear submarine deployments to an Australian business man. Republican supporters do not care about issues of national security if it doesn't involve "Buttery males".

I don't know what a buttery male is.

The 'Trump disclosed security secrets that got to Hamas' is just getting going in those glaring headlines. That might just counter Biden supporting Israel's slaughter of Palestinians.

True, not all of them do. But fivethirtyeight does an aggregate where they combine multiple polls (weighted by their reliability and age).

And?

I think all the current points that are going to made about the polls have been made. None of the polls claiming I should be worried about Trump beating Biden concern me.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I got called a couple years ago. About 7 questions in it became obvious it was a push poll. I told the person calling to **** off and hung up.

We think alike. I ask at the beginning if it is a push poll, they say no, and as soon as it's obvious it is I explain to the poll taker (because they are usually just hired callers) what a push poll is and hang up.

I don't answer most of the calls I get but once in a while I do.

 

[Stacyhs]

Don't forget that many Republicans only see what FOX, Newsmax, and OAN present:
the trials are all Biden-Dem directed witch hunts persecuting an innocent man who is fighting for them.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

"Donald Trump is FKIN REAL man!" I hear at my workplace from middle-aged white guys, some of whom are actually against right-wingers, to hear them explain themselves.

I don't know how that works, maybe they sincerely like Trump's openness? How. How TF is this grifter REAL? Cause he speaks off the cuff all the damn time? because he doesn't use big words? Because he just spews anything that pops into his head at the moment?

Because he makes false promise after false promise and it's what they want to hear.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Doesn't say much for what the guys at your workplace think a 'real man' is.

This 'real woman' finds nothing 'real man' about Trump at all. Loathsome pig.

He looks quite wimpy going up those plane stairs with TP stuck to his shoe. Then there is the video where he can't close the umbrella. And when he hunches over like he did coming down the ramp at West Point he looks especially wimpy.