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Merged 2024 Election Thread

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Segnosaur said:
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Trump made the worst possible choice... another angry white male who is willing to go along with all the extremist nonsense that Trump and the rest of the MAGAchud can spew. Certainly not someone who can expand Trump's base at all. (All the old comments he made about Trump being "america's hitler" that can be used as campaign fodder is just an added bonus.)
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Maybe when you demand unquestioning loyalty in your minions someone who cannot be fired must be considered carefully.
 
Trump's also not going to risk any VP who could "Out him" him. He's not going to play second fiddle even for a moment.
 
Fidelio said:
Maybe when you demand unquestioning loyalty in your minions someone who cannot be fired must be considered carefully.
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This is a key thing - any VP to Trump will spend the entire term under suspicion from Trump and therefore dislike.

The VP is someone Trump can't fire, but who can take Trump's position if Trump gets removed.

In a zero-sum world view like Trump has, that pretty makes that VP obligated to try to remove Trump - it's what he would do himself if he were VP.
 
Segnosaur said:
To be honest I was actually really glad Trump picked Vance as VP, even before Biden dropped out.

Picking someone like Haley or Scott might not have given Trump a majority of the female or black vote, but it might have at least cut into the Democrat's lead with those demographics. And Haley might have been seen as a "moderate" voice... someone to counteract the extreme right wing trump lunacy. (I don't think she was really a moderate, but she was certainly claiming to be one.)

Trump made the worst possible choice... another angry white male who is willing to go along with all the extremist nonsense that Trump and the rest of the MAGAchud can spew. Certainly not someone who can expand Trump's base at all. (All the old comments he made about Trump being "america's hitler" that can be used as campaign fodder is just an added bonus.)
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The analysis on the The Rest is Politics podcast is that Trump wouldn't choose a running mate who would broaden his appeal because his ego wouldn't accept that he needed to, and he wouldn't want to be beholden to someone else for getting elected.
 
zooterkin said:
The analysis on the The Rest is Politics podcast is that Trump wouldn't choose a running mate who would broaden his appeal because his ego wouldn't accept that he needed to, and he wouldn't want to be beholden to someone else for getting elected.
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"There cannot be two suns in the sky!" - Joseph Stalin
 
I am hoping (perhaps foolishly) that that means Trump isn't prepping a successor and his cult of personality won't survive his death.
 
zooterkin said:
The analysis on the The Rest is Politics podcast is that Trump wouldn't choose a running mate who would broaden his appeal because his ego wouldn't accept that he needed to, and he wouldn't want to be beholden to someone else for getting elected.
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Quite possible.

I've also heard some people suggest it was Trump trying to "run up" the number of MAGAchud votes (thinking his victory against Biden was assured.)
 
i think trump knows he has some of the same voter enthusiasm issues biden did. the trumpamania train seems like it’s been slowing down for some time. what is the trump world excited about these days? i don’t see the pickups covered in flags and the bikers blocking highways too much anymore
 
dirtywick said:
i think trump knows he has some of the same voter enthusiasm issues biden did. the trumpamania train seems like it’s been slowing down for some time. what is the trump world excited about these days? i don’t see the pickups covered in flags and the bikers blocking highways too much anymore
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But what about the real test of a candidate's popularity...

The boat parade?
 
I see also trump has hastily withdrawn from the next debate, usual nasty rhetoric from him excusing it but he's clearly running scared, without Biden's lacklustre performance in the first debate the coverage would all have been around his own gaffes and bizarre statements.
 
Fidelio said:
Maybe when you demand unquestioning loyalty in your minions someone who cannot be fired must be considered carefully.
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If he picked Vance because he thinks Vance is loyal to him, he might be in for a shock.

A politician who goes from "Trump is America's hitler" to "Team Trump" obviously does not have a very solid intellectual foundation, and the guy who jumps ON the Trump train for opportunistic reasons might just be willing to jump OFF the Trump train when he thinks there is a better opportunity.
 
Segnosaur said:
If he picked Vance because he thinks Vance is loyal to him, he might be in for a shock.

A politician who goes from "Trump is America's hitler" to "Team Trump" obviously does not have a very solid intellectual foundation, and the guy who jumps ON the Trump train for opportunistic reasons might just be willing to jump OFF the Trump train when he thinks there is a better opportunity.
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I doubt Vance will change his mind again. The last Trump-VP that did was almost lynched.
 
angrysoba said:
Nobody cares.
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I care that RFK is succeeding at splitting the conservative and far-right vote. Though I probably shouldn't say that out loud too much, don't interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake and all that.
 
thaiboxerken said:
If he picked Vance because he thinks Vance is loyal to him, he might be in for a shock.

A politician who goes from "Trump is America's hitler" to "Team Trump" obviously does not have a very solid intellectual foundation, and the guy who jumps ON the Trump train for opportunistic reasons might just be willing to jump OFF the Trump train when he thinks there is a better opportunity.
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I doubt Vance will change his mind again. The last Trump-VP that did was almost lynched.
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The political landscape is littered with people who became Trump associates (possibly because they thought they could control him, or would get something out of it), but found they miscalculated.

Vance is a relative newbie when it comes to politics, and we have already seen him make a lot of foot-in-mouth comments. He might have a too-high opinion of himself.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
I care that RFK is succeeding at splitting the conservative and far-right vote. Though I probably shouldn't say that out loud too much, don't interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake and all that.
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Is that actually happening though?

I have heard mixed polling results, some suggesting Kennedy harms Trump more (because he taps into the conspiracy nonsense) others suggesting he harmed Biden more (because the Kennedy name is associated with the Democrats).

Admittedly this was back when Biden was candidate, so I don't know how the switch to Harris as the democratic candidate might affect RFKs role a potential spoiler.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
I care that RFK is succeeding at splitting the conservative and far-right vote. Though I probably shouldn't say that out loud too much, don't interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake and all that.
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It's too early to tell if that's happening. The only poll out show Harris doing better against Trump when Kennedy (and others) are included than when it's head to head. But the differences are all within the margin of error.

The pollsters I read and listen are all saying wait two week before polling on a sea-change event.

My prediction: Big swings for Harris!
 
Segnosaur said:
Is that actually happening though?

I have heard mixed polling results, some suggesting Kennedy harms Trump more (because he taps into the conspiracy nonsense) others suggesting he harmed Biden more (because the Kennedy name is associated with the Democrats).

Admittedly this was back when Biden was candidate, so I don't know how the switch to Harris as the democratic candidate might affect RFKs role a potential spoiler.
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Trump is sort of quietly trying to woo RFK into completely dropping out of the race with offers of cushie cabinet positions and anti-vax love if he does.
 
Tero said:
I'm wondering about Jill Stein's VP and kennedy's VP. Who are they? My state won't print ballots unless a VP is listed.

"“I’m so proud to introduce to you the next vice president of the United States: my fellow lawyer, a brilliant scientist, technologist, a fierce warrior mom, Nicole Shanahan,” Kennedy said."

Who?
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Google founder Sergei Brin's ex-wife. She reportedly walked away from the divorce with a cool billion.
 
I think some of H.L. Mencken's obituary of William Jennings Bryan would fit Trump perfectly today, just substituting "Trump" for "Bryan":

But what of his life? Did he accomplish any useful thing? Was he, in his day, of any dignity as a man, and of any value to his fellow-men? I doubt it. [Trump], at his best, was simply a magnificent job-seeker. The issues that he bawled about usually meant nothing to him. He was ready to abandon them whenever he could make votes by doing so, and to take up new ones at a moment's notice. ... In his last great battle there was only a baleful and ridiculous malignancy. If he was pathetic, he was also disgusting.

[Trump] was a vulgar and common man, a cad undiluted. He was ignorant, bigoted, self-seeking, blatant and dishonest. His career brought him into contact with the first men of his time; he preferred the company of rustic ignoramuses. It was hard to believe... that he had traveled, that he had been received in civilized societies, that he had been a high officer of state. He seemed only a poor clod like those around him, deluded by a childish theology, full of an almost pathological hatred of all learning, all human dignity, all beauty, all fine and noble things. He was a peasant come home to the dung-pile. Imagine a gentleman, and you have imagined everything that he was not.
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shemp said:
I think some of H.L. Mencken's obituary of William Jennings Bryan would fit Trump perfectly today, just substituting "Trump" for "Bryan":
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Meh, Trump doesn’t want the company of rustic ignoramuses, he just likes to rile them up. He’s spent most of his life trying to suck up to the established rich and powerful.
 
Brainster said:
There is a bit of excessive exuberance around Harris's nomination. She improves the Democrats chances of winning yes, but certainly not to the point that the election is a foregone conclusion. Gambling markets, (which again, should just be seen as a distillation of the common wisdom) still show Trump winning handily, although not as easily as before. He was as high as 66.2, now he's down to 57.1.
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A probability of 57% is hardly what I would characterize as "winning handily."
 
Trump is hadling this badly. I don't think he knows what to do. He is preaching doom and gloom. The lighter material in his stand up is well worn insults.

Contrast this to Harris. I still can't say she is super at being charismatic and I did not like her speech back in 2020 debates and primaries. But Kamala will have a pretty good chance of convincing people that we are not screwed. After the pandemic and the post pandemic jerks and fits in the running of the world, she is the first one to announce that we are done with that. Done with trump, Biden sent to retirement. We can do this!

 
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